Tropical Cyclone Pam - SW Pacific

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 14/03/2015 12:21

Yeah, I wouldn't take Nadi's future track categories too seriously (must be computer generated).
JTWC still reckon she'll begin transition tomorrow sometime and complete by Monday.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 14/03/2015 12:49

latest sat image animation shows its moving in a direction just S of SSE
and increasing in forward speed...as the models showed it would

the original, yeah right, GFS model , is panning out (but later)

Manukau heads obs · Sat 14/03/2015 12:54

Met Service Blog updated:
http://blog.metservice.com/
with it stated estimated pressure at 890hpa

so does that make it a equal record for the south pacific?

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 14/03/2015 13:21

Wow! 890 hPa would be an equal record for the entire Southern Hemisphere.

Typhoon Tip in Oct 1979 holds the world's largest and most intense record with 870 hPa.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 14/03/2015 13:37

the next few hours will be very telling for NZ's outcome (re the next predicted recurve)

Manukau heads obs · Sat 14/03/2015 13:43

check out the video showing some of the destruction in Vanuatu (Port Vila)
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-paci ... -the-worst

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 14/03/2015 15:08

Still appears to moving south. RSMC Nadi showing 896 hPa and 250 km/h central mean-winds...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A27 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 14/0140 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE [896HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4S 169.2E AT 140000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS VIS
AND EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH
AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 135 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 175 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 270 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 270 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD WITH WELL DEFINED EYE. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS PESISTENT. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD. PAM IS BEING STEERED
SOUTHWARDS BY A NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND FLOW. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 200HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE AND COLD DARK GREY SURROUND
GIVES AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +0.5, YIELDS DT=7.0, MET=7.0, PT=6.5. FT
BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T7.0/7.0/S0.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODEL HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 14/03/2015 15:19

Why does RMSC Nadi keep putting category 6 in their track maps!?

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sat 14/03/2015 15:41

I think it's a pixel issue.

Impressive storm

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 14/03/2015 16:08

From JTWC…

WTPS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 20.5S 169.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
…
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 169.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 19-NM EYE WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND IN OVERALL
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, HOWEVER, TC 17P
REMAINS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 135 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FIXES. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PRIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) NEAR TAU 24 AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 17P WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST BASED ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS THROUGH TAU
48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 45 FEET.
...

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sat 14/03/2015 16:14

I see the cone of possibility now lies over the North Island

Manukau heads obs · Sat 14/03/2015 16:40

looks like its done a bit of a recurve more to the SSE now

Avalanche · Unread post by **Avalanche** » Sat 14/03/2015 19:28

Interesting stuff Brian, im with you on this one. Is the final direction to the SSE to late now though, Pam is going to have to cover alot of ground quickly across the top of NZ to miss us now. I have a feeling the models are off. Thats my opinion anyway. Northland Coromandel Bay Of Plenty East Cape Gisborne and the Hawkes Bay and maybe even further south now. Whats going to push Pam further east is there some jetstream that will move Pam faster to the east? Anyone got any theories would love to know. thanks

scottdeb · Unread post by **scottdeb** » Sat 14/03/2015 19:41

Yeah I thought she was really racing SE now on the latest MTSAT IR. Still going to miss us to the NE in my humble opinion. Of course I'm with you all in wanting a little bit of weather action. A track over the top of us would be devastating though.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sat 14/03/2015 19:45

The jet stream is really trying to direct it towards us. Its going to be very interesting to watch this tomorrow.

All the models are slowly bringing it back to the West so who knows....My gut is that it will cross the East cape which means you wouldn't want to be anywhere near Opotiki or similar.

Im tossing up heading down that way but im concerned that ill get trapped there by flooding and i need to be back by Tuesday.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 14/03/2015 19:54

it did a another turn more to the SE late afternoon
its currently tracking how the latest JTWC has it
i,e just passing by to our NE

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Sat 14/03/2015 20:28

Blast

I have a few jobs that are confirmed Monday. Starting with a job at a patients house in Murupara, then going in to Ruatahuna, then finishing in Whakatane. Not jobs I can easily postpone or cancel either. I figured this would pass well East of us, I'm not liking what I'm seeing at the moment.

Blowy · Unread post by **Blowy** » Sat 14/03/2015 21:04

First World Problems snoopy.... sheesh

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sat 14/03/2015 21:22

Like working to pay your bills Blowy? Not all of us can afford to just take a few days off mate

Vertigo · Unread post by **Vertigo** » Sat 14/03/2015 21:24

What a storm. I would have given anything to experience it first hand at its peak. Inside a bomb shelter of course.

Looks like its begun its weakening trend - looking a bit more ragged the past few hours as it heads into cooler waters. Deep convection subsiding finally, it had a really good run with that, with cloud tops reaching in excess of -100c. Its on a direct line towards east cape at this stage. Wonder if the recurve will occur. Its expected to remain a cat 2 as it passes by.

Loop as of now: http://www.gfycat.com/UnequaledGenuineAmethystsunbird

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 14/03/2015 21:25

I noticed that in MS's earlier blog they said Pam was estimated at 'near' 890 hPa. So assuming she only officially peaked at 896 hPa, that would make her the 2nd most intense in the South Pacific and Australian regions, and 3rd lowest for the Southern Hemisphere.

Looks like she came to within about 350 km of Noumea.

Starting to lose strength now… up to 910 hPa and mean-winds dropped to 230 km/h…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A28 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 14/0734 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 910HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.2S 170.0E AT 140600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 14 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 125 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 090 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. EYE DISCERNABLE IN MTSAT EIR IMAGE. CLOUD
TOPS WARMING PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD. PAM IS BEING
STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE STR LOCATED TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 200HPA. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE AND W SURROUND, YEILDS
DT=6.5, MET AND PT AGREE. THUS YIELDING T6.5/7.0/W1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARDS MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
WEAKENING.
…

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 14/03/2015 21:43

Lets keep it civil folks.

I might also suggest that, apart from discussing Pam's path in relation to NZ, anything regarding her effects on NZ in the coming days be directed to the TC Pam thread in the NZ Weather & Climate section.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 14/03/2015 22:55

check out latest GFS...

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sat 14/03/2015 23:06

Manukau heads obs wrote:check out latest GFS...

Seems more and more likely that the East Cape will take a direct hit

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sun 15/03/2015 06:10

TC Pam, at Cat 5 with 10-minute of mean-winds of about 215 km/h, crossed 25S into NZ's Area of Responsibly at about 2am this morning NZDT. This is RSMC Nadi's Final Advisory…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A29 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 14/1401 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 922HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.4S 171.0E AT 141200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 24 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 115 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. EYE DISCERNABLE ON MTSAT EIR IMAGE. CLOUD
TOPS WARMING PAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD. PAM IS BEING
STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS BY A NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND FLOW.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE AND BLACK
SURROUND, YEILDS DT=6.0, MET=6.0,PT=5.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS
YIELDING T6.0/6.5/W1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODEL HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH
FURTHER WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 28.8S 174.0E MOV SSE AT 26KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 33.0S 177.4E MOV SSE AT 26KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
ON HURRICANE PAM.

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