Despite Nathan's very close proximity to the coast overnight hindering development, convection looks to have increased in recent hours, although he's not too far off from his third landfall now…
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1331 UTC 23/03/2015
Name: Tropical Cyclone Nathan
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 11.5S
Longitude: 134.0E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: west [279 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
...
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Nathan is located off the north Arnhem coast. Position is fair
based on the Warruwi radar.
The core of TC Nathan has now been over water for about 27 hours, but remains
near the coast. The infrared imagery shows little curvature, and the structure
depicted on the radar is quite open. The 1108Z SSMIS microwave pass also shows
a weak structure with little deep convection.
Analysis of 1130Z imagery using an embedded centre pattern with an OW surround
yielded a DT of 3.5. The past 24 hours shows a weakening trend of 0.5, so
MET=3.5, and PT=2.5. FT based on DT.
The mid level ridge to the south weakened today, and westward motion has slowed
in response. The available guidance depicts a westward motion over the next few
hours that is more than that observed in the recent past, and so the forecast
track has been adjusted accordingly in the short term. The low level centre is
then expected to track westwards over land towards the Timor Sea due to a
re-strengthening low level ridge from Wednesday.
The system still has an opportunity to improve its structure and intensify later
tonight, however it is becoming less likely given its proximity to land and the
observed weakening over the past few hours.
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lol... Be interesting to see how he develops after heading out into the Indian Ocean.
Nathan now down to Cat 1 and turning SW towards the coast…
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1939 UTC 23/03/2015
Name: Tropical Cyclone Nathan
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 11.6S
Longitude: 133.9E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [257 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 991 hPa
…
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Nathan is just located off the north Arnhem coast between
Goulburn Island and Maningrida, position is fair based on the Warruwi radar.
The infrared imagery shows little curvature, and the structure depicted on the
radar is quite open. The 1732Z SSMI microwave pass also shows a weak exposed
structure with deep convection only in the southern quadrant. Analysis of 1730Z
imagery using an embedded centre pattern with a MG surround yielded a DT of 4.0.
The past 24 hours shows a weakening trend of 1.0, so MET=3.0, and PT=2.5 - 3.0.
With little confidence in the DT, FT was based on the MET.
The mid level ridge to the south has weakened, and the recent motion has been
towards the southwest. The latest guidance depicts a westward motion over the
next few hours that is against the observed track in the recent past, and so the
forecast track has been adjusted accordingly in the short term. The low level
centre is still expected to track westwards most likely over land towards the
Timor Sea due to a re-strengthening low level ridge in the longer term.
The system still has an opportunity to improve its structure or maintain
intensity if it tracks closer to the coast along the Van Diemen Gulf, or moves
over the Van Diemen Gulf.
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TC Nathan made landfall between Goulburn Island and Maningrida about an hour and a half ago around 2200z this morning with central mean-winds of 75 km/h and gusts to 100 km/h…
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Be interesting to see how he develops after heading out into the Indian Ocean.