Potential low level snow Mon 13th April

talbotmj15 · Unread post by **talbotmj15** » Wed 08/04/2015 19:31

Thoughts people!! On the approaching southerly storm early Mon. Looks to be south to south west. If it stays on current track could see snow to 400m around Canterbury and down to 200m Oamaru south. Metservice going for heavy snow above 400m south of about Oamaru.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 08/04/2015 19:51

Its just a bit far out to make confident predictions but the 00Z GFS is aggressive with the cold air with snow showers down to about 400m in Southland/Otago.

Another aspect of these cold events at this time of year is lightning and hail.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 08/04/2015 20:44

Yes, I noticed a potential for cold weather development from Monday with models pointing to anticyclone developments to the south of Australia.
Might have to fill up the wood-box for next week.

SnwAddct · Unread post by **SnwAddct** » Thu 09/04/2015 11:29

Wow, looking impressive for April. Anyone else agree the last couple of GFS runs show the system getting colder and colder?

talbotmj15 · Unread post by **talbotmj15** » Thu 09/04/2015 11:35

Yes SnowAddct it does appear like this storm is getting colder. Snow on the horizon

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Thu 09/04/2015 12:29

This is starting to look like a once in 10 year event for April - more typical of a cold snap in late May - in fact the 850hpa temps and thickness levels almost match up with the May 28th 2013 event where it snowed to sea-level in Christchurch for a time...

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Thu 09/04/2015 15:15

NZstorm wrote:Its just a bit far out to make confident predictions but the 00Z GFS is aggressive with the cold air with snow showers down to about 400m in Southland/Otago.

Another aspect of these cold events at this time of year is lightning and hail.

I agree Nzstorm I expect a very unstable air mass in Monday afternoon witch should bring thunderstorms/ hail to eastern Otago / canterbury. The thing us with such cold air at 500mb is you tend to get low topped CBs witch normally arnt the best.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Fri 10/04/2015 12:25

Unbelievably this beast on Monday/Tuesday has become even colder overnight with 850hpa temps of nearly -6C stretching to Christchurch...if it arrived overnight Sunday instead of Midday Monday the all-time lowest max of 8C for April would have been under threat but as it is it looks more likely around 10-11C will be the maximum...

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Fri 10/04/2015 12:38

It is April tho and its been cold in april before

so its not something to get to excited about I would have thought

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Fri 10/04/2015 12:43

Don't get excited about it then

hozza95 · Unread post by **hozza95** » Fri 10/04/2015 12:58

As someone who is a relative weather novice, thoughts on the snow level down in the deep south? Tony from blue skies has 200m at the moment, metservice have 400m

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 10/04/2015 13:19

hozza95 wrote:As someone who is a relative weather novice, thoughts on the snow level down in the deep south? Tony from blue skies has 200m at the moment, metservice have 400m

Snow flakes will occur down to sea level but snow could settle briefly down to 200m. The detail will be in the mesoscale features that can develop with the polar trough.

hozza95 · Unread post by **hozza95** » Fri 10/04/2015 13:36

Thanks Steven!! We are right on 200 m here, wow snow down to sea level is unheard of this early, usually not til late may that it does

matttbs · Unread post by **matttbs** » Fri 10/04/2015 14:42

Latest gfs has the THK at 522 for my area, that's nuts! About 15mm moisture also. Maybe I will see some snow next week although it is far too early, definitely not what dairy farmers need on the back of a very poor season.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 10/04/2015 15:51

Sigh...the usual early winter hysteria has begun, people around my work claiming they won't be here on Monday because of the snow. Drama queens, the lot of them.

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Fri 10/04/2015 16:14

Yes im sure there will be a few pages on this topic before it even arrives, all the usual "its going to snow its going to snow" posts. Be good times for CWU tho

There was snow very low down on the Canterbury foothills in March and we even had frosts.
Its certainly not unheard of thats for sure, ive seen snow to 400m in the mackenzie country on new years morning.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 10/04/2015 18:44

It doesn't help when armchair Facebook-forecasters tell their devotees that MetService 'currently have a heavy snow warning for North Canterbury above 500m'.

hozza95 · Unread post by **hozza95** » Fri 10/04/2015 19:04

Metservice sticking with 400m down south and 5-600m in Canterbury

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 10/04/2015 19:09

Yes, but they haven't issued any Watches or Warnings yet.

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Fri 10/04/2015 19:18

Looking very cold for the start of the week,most of the moisture looks to be falling in the alps Sunday night/Monday morning then Banks Peninsula Monday morning onwards for this area.

hozza95 · Unread post by **hozza95** » Fri 10/04/2015 19:24

People reckon metservice are right with their forecast or think it will get lower??

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Fri 10/04/2015 19:36

hozza95 wrote:People reckon metservice are right with their forecast or think it will get lower??

Metservice will lower snow level forecasts for Southland at lunchtime tomorrow.

moylanr · Unread post by **moylanr** » Fri 10/04/2015 20:56

Metservice will lower snow level forecasts for Southland at lunchtime tomorrow.

A forecast of the forecast.

I like it.

talbotmj15 · Unread post by **talbotmj15** » Fri 10/04/2015 21:46

Latest GFS has Canterbury at around 518 thk levels. Crazy numbers. With these numbers this would see snow in CHCH city.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 10/04/2015 22:19

Probably a mistake

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Potential low level snow Mon 13th April

Potential low level snow Mon 13th April

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