UK Weather - Spring 2015

[Simon Culling]

The cold front on Monday did develop some line convection elements and it was a wet morning here in Milton Keynes. The main rainband cleared just before noon and the cloud then broke up with some sunshine but the cold front soon arrived with a big Cb and torrential driving rain for 10 minutes. A report of wind damage to roofs and trees in Swansea (south Wales) remains unconfirmed as a weak tornado.

The following day,Tuesday (19th May), was a cool and very showery day across the whole of the UK with numerous thunderstorms and hail showers, although nothing of significance. We had our first thunder of the year here in Milton Keynes - but it only managed 5 rumbles and a short burst of hail. This persistent NW flow will produce showery days like this but nothing more substantial. That will need a shift in the synoptics to give us more of a southerly flow.

The CET for May was 10.7*C (-0.1*C) up to the 21st and this is the first time we have seen a negative anomaly this year. Current forecasts suggest no real movement in this average for the rest of the month. The EWR was 69mm up to the 20th which is 106% of the monthly average.

[Tim S]

Love your reports Simon, I'm actually visiting relatives in the Towcester area at the moment and have been reading through your reports with much interest in the months leading up to my visit. Very impressed with the warmth and relatively settled weather, especially considering the polar blast that has gone through my usual hometown!

keep up the great work!

[Simon Culling]

Hello Tim, I hope you are enjoying your trip to the historic town of Towcester. It dates back to at least Roman times when it was the garrison town of Lactodurum. The old roman road of Watling Street (now the A5) runs through the middle of it and this road was the link between London and the Midlands and the Welsh borders in Roman towns. The town has a famous racecourse (although there are only half a dozen or so meets a year now) and the grand prix racing track of Silverstone is only 5km to the SW.

It is a shame that the only average or colder than average weather for much of this year has coincided with your visit. It has remained on the cool side this last week with a nip of ground frost on some nights in more rural areas. It was only 5*C here in town this morning at dawn (now about 5am). The forecast is not too good either for the next week or so with a number of bands of rain followed by cool showery weather.

The CET for May was 11.0*C (on average) up to the 25th and the EWR was 70mm (107% of average) also up to the 25th.

[Tim S]

Thanks Simon, Towcester is a lovely little place, such beautiful buildings and so much history as you said. Some great little pubs too which is vitally important! Checked out the canals and the canal tunnel the other day too, amazing that they built such a massive tunnel so long ago. Checked out Silverstone as well, as I bought my wife a rally drive experience at the rally school there. Also went out to the Duxton airshow last weekend which was an amazing experience.

But yes weatherwise has been fairly uneventful so far, we did get some nice warmish weather the first few days we were here though, got to around 20C or so out in the cotwolds last Friday. Looks like a bit of wet weather coming up today and the next few days though that will be the first real rain since we arrived over a week ago.

[Blade]

30ºc for south of UK next week! let's see if it happens.

[Richard]

Has to come sometime though

[Simon Culling]

Blade + Richard, there is a change in the weather pattern coming next week but I am not sure yet that we will see the predicted 30-32*C in the south east of England on Friday 5th June. We have two wet and windy spells before then tomorrow (Sunday 31st May) and on Tuesday. Then we will get a build of pressure to our north and east cutting off the flow of lows and more importantly the persistent NW (and cold!) flow. A more continental flow will give us some needed warmth, but there is likely to be low pressures near to the SW and this offers the prospect of some thunderstorms in the south. Beyond next weekend, the Met Office is going for dry in the north and wet, warm and thundery in the south.

Yesterday (Friday 29th) saw a sharp cold front cross England and Wales with at least 4 small tornadoes reported and a cold airmass to follow - it was down to 6*C by midnight here in Milton Keynes with a moderate NW breeze.

The CET for May up to the 29th was 11.0*C (-0.1*C) and the EWR was 75mm which is 115% of the monthly average. Should be the first colder than average month since August 2014.

[Richard]

Interesting how the continental winds bring you cold temps in winter but the opposite in summer

[Simon Culling]

Hello Richard. Let me clarify my last post as the build of pressure will actually be from the SW but this will lead to high pressure to our east by the end of the coming week. The amount of heat has been scaled back in recent model runs.

The UK is a relatively small island on the western edge of a large continental land mass, and as you rightly say, it has contrasting effects on our weather. The key determinant to our weather is the source of the airmass rather than the wind direction and the air can be significantly modified on its journey here. The predominant south westerly tends to be mild and humid in all seasons but can bring disappointing weather in the summer. A southerly flow will bring us warm weather in all seasons, but put a hint of SE in it in the winter and the air will be cooler and drier with frost on the menu. Easterly or north easterly winds in winter tend to be cold but can be modified by the North Sea and the source of the air is again important. This tends to be the source of our coldest weather here in the south, but northerly winds bring the coldest weather to Scotland, generally speaking. Conversely, in summer, east or north easterly winds will tend to bring generally warm and sunny weather to central and western parts, but the North Sea coasts will be cloudy and much cooler.

[Simon Culling]

The final CET for May was 10.8*C (-0.4*C) making this the first colder than average month since August 2014. The final EWR was 87mm which is 134% of the monthly average making May the first wetter than average month since January.

[Simon Culling]

cantygirl asked a question in the Summer thread regarding the weather at the recent Test Match between England and New Zealand at Headingley from 29th May to 2nd June. The question was:

"I see last week the cricket test at Headingly, Leeds was played under cold and blustery conditions. The NZ cricket captain called it an 'Invercargill wind' which suggests it was bitterly cold. I understand the thermometer never rose above 12 degrees across 5 days which makes it the bottom three cricket tests in terms of cold of all time if that is the case. The added windchill made it apparently feel like 6 or 7 degrees for much of the game. Can you confirm this at all please?"

There has been much debate about which was the 'coldest Test Match' and the answer may not just relate to temperature. Factors such as wind, humidity and stadium exposure may well also be important. For the match in question I do not think it was quite as cold as you suggest, although it certainly was not warm. The nearest Met Office station to the stadium (which is in a suburb of Leeds) is at Linton-on-Ouse which is about 35km to the NE but I think it gives a good representation of the weather in and around Leeds. The figures (from Ogimet) show maximum temperatures of between 14-16*C with some rain on a couple of the days. Nearer stations at Leeds Airport and Bingley show temperatures nearer to your figures but they are 400ft and 500ft higher up than the cricket ground and much more exposed.

[cantygal]

Thanks Simon for the clarification and perhaps it was some of our Auckland boys who thought it was exceptionally cold.

Looks like the last ODI match was also nippy and let's hope you get some consistently warmer days soon

Thanks again for all your efforts xx

[spwill]

Dewpoint temperature can be a big factor in how cool/cold a wind may feel. I find in Auckland a dewpoint temperature below about 9C can make the cooling affect of a breeze very noticeable

I'm sure Dunedin will have had some cold Test Matches , I can never remember being warm at Carrisbrook

[Simon Culling]

One of the coldest days of test cricket in the UK in recent years was the final day (actually the 4th day) of the 2nd Test between England and the West Indies which took place on 28th May 2007 at Headingley, Leeds. The nearby Leeds Airport reported a temperature between 7-9*C on all of its METARS during the hours of play and there were a few showers. It is likely that Headingley probably only reached a maximum of 10-11*C on that day and the temperature was reported to have fallen to 7*C at lunchtime as a hail shower hit the ground.

England won the match by an innings and 283 runs.

[cantygal]

That is very nippy Simon and Aotearoa can almost match that with a test match in Dunedin between New Zealand and England back in the 1990s.

Carisbrook was the old cricket ground and a very blustery southerly took hold of most of the 5 day match and although surprisingly it was relatively dry the windchill factor was rather remarkable.

The temperature on the second day of the March test was just 7.2 degrees in the central city which was just 3 kilometres away as the crow flies.

The wind made it feel like 4 or 5 for much of the day. One english player commented it was like being back at home in May!

Congrats on the thrashing you gave us yesterday in the one dayer and the series decider this weekend could go either way What a turnaround for you guys from the World Cup-rather stunning.

[Simon Culling]

That sounds like a very cold game especially factoring in the wind off the sea. At least the English players would have been used to playing in the cold!

I can remember playing an early season game at the end of April a few years ago at a place called Upper Dean, which is about 15km north of Bedford. It was a dull and cold day and it drizzled lightly throughout the home team's innings. Rain at tea restricted play for our innings but I mostly recall standing in the field for nearly three hours feeling very cold and miserable despite wearing two jumpers and a woolly hat. It was one of those games where you really did not want a catching chance to come your way as your hands were so cold despite being in your pockets whenever possible. I remember checking the local weather observations for this day and the maximum temperature was just 9*C and there was a moderate breeze blowing from the NE as well.