NIWA: Drier, Cooler Autumn Ahead

[Willoughby]

Summer is over and people need to get ready for cooler autumn weather.

Even though the temperature reached 27C in Whakatane and Napier yesterday, climate scientists say the mercury will soon retreat.

The autumn outlook is worse in the North Island - where people need to prepare for colder than usual temperatures - than on the Mainland, says the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research.

Niwa spokesman Dr Jim Salinger said yesterday that over the next three months the North Island's weather would be cooler than the average autumn temperature of 16C.

But he said the South Island's temperatures would stay around 11C - which is normal for this time of year.

Lower air pressures and stronger than normal southwesterlies are expected over the next three months, Niwa said.

North Island regional predictions for the next three months:

* Northland, Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty: Average or below average March to May temperatures are likely. Near normal or below normal rainfall.

* Central North Island, Taranaki, Wanganui, Manawatu and Wellington: Average or below average seasonal temperatures are expected. Normal seasonal rainfall.
* Gisborne, Hawkes Bay and the Wairarapa: Seasonal temperatures are forecast to be average or below average. Normal or below normal rainfall and soil moisture levels are expected, with below normal stream flows.

- NZPA



Stronger than normal Southwesterlies, wipee!!

[Gary Roberts]

A lovely day down here in Omarama again Foggy, but definitely cooler. It certainly feels like early Autumn, which I guess is not surprising!

[Michael]

I reckon it will be a wet one lots of developed/complex depressions over N.Z especially May

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I reckon it will be a wet one lots of developed/complex depressions over N.Z especially May

Good, I can't wait

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Michael]

Well it looks that way due to the warm summer we just had with the cold fronts punching into them

[RWood]

[quote="Foggy Hamilton"]Summer is over and people need to get ready for cooler autumn weather.

quote]

The NIWA item posted here is out of date. The latest Apr-June version expects a northerly anomaly overall (it will have to kick in soon if they're to be near the mark).

[NZstorm]

Yes, the original NIWA prediction turned out wrong, for Auckland anyway.
Thus far we have has exceptionally sunny, exceptionaly dry and slightly warmer than average autume. To make a prediction of 'average to below average rainfall' doesn't cover them. Rainfall has been way down.

[Gary Roberts]

Yes, the original NIWA prediction turned out wrong, for Auckland anyway.
Thus far we have has exceptionally sunny, exceptionaly dry and slightly warmer than average autume. To make a prediction of 'average to below average rainfall' doesn't cover them. Rainfall has been way down.

Since just predicting the weather is difficult enough, I reckon attempting to predict a major climate event should be tossed into the 'too damn hard' basket!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, the original NIWA prediction turned out wrong, for Auckland anyway.
Thus far we have has exceptionally sunny, exceptionaly dry and slightly warmer than average autume. To make a prediction of 'average to below average rainfall' doesn't cover them. Rainfall has been way down.

Since just predicting the weather is difficult enough, I reckon attempting to predict a major climate event should be tossed into the 'too damn hard' basket!

I think so too.
It's a wonder that people don't place bets on the weather
I bet $14 we don't get a thunderstorm on Monday
JohnGaul
NZTS

[Willoughby]

Awesome idea John!
Im sure there's something like that going on in the states and UK.
I can't see how corruption could run into it, unless there are lying observers and goo goo ga ga people (or 'Freakish New Age Bozos'- as described by Gary previously) like these ones which claim to change the weather

http://twm.co.nz/

But go for it, i'd laugh if the weather betting company gained more profit than the MetService! Then again it would be charity money and the bookmakers would have to be qualified

[03Stormchaser]

in America they have a thing called stormcast, were a week in advance you point on a map of the U.S were you think storms may happen, participants will select 6 gridboxes from anywhere in the country (they have over 300 too choice from) and your score is recorded over the storm season!

Guess who came third last week??

check it out; http://www.stormcast.us/

[TonyT]

Yes, the original NIWA prediction turned out wrong, for Auckland anyway.
Thus far we have has exceptionally sunny, exceptionaly dry and slightly warmer than average autume. To make a prediction of 'average to below average rainfall' doesn't cover them. Rainfall has been way down.

Our February to April outlook for Auckland, which was pretty much identical to our January to March one, predicted rainfall 45-95% of normal, temps +0.5 to +1.5deg above, and sunshine 95-120%, with notes to expect Feb and April to be warm, April sunny and with lighter winds. I remember when I was writing it, I was tempted to add "that should keep Micheal quiet for a while".

[tich]

NZ seems to have had a pattern (since February) where we alternate between periods of easterly airflow and west-southwesterlies. Neither are systems likely to give much rain to the north of the North Island, hence the dry spell there.

[tich]

Neither are systems likely to give much rain to the north of the North Island, hence the dry spell there.

I must correct myself - easteries do often bring rain to the far north, but not the anticyclonic easterlies (often more southeasterly) we've been getting.

[Gary Roberts]

...or 'Freakish New Age Bozos'- as described by Gary previously...

Good grief! How the hell did you remember that?

You must be an elephant or something.

[Willoughby]

Neither are systems likely to give much rain to the north of the North Island, hence the dry spell there.

I must correct myself - easteries do often bring rain to the far north, but not the anticyclonic easterlies (often more southeasterly) we've been getting.

Yes the southeasterlies have brought little rain to the rainshadowed regions in the North, while Gisborne-Hawke's Bay has seen plenty ever since Feb. There has been a lack of depressions forming around near Brisbane which would bring a humid Northerly-NW flow and dump long periods of rain. Spring is ideal for this. But yes, there has been a real lack of cold fronts developing in the southern oceans below Australia.

Inland regions, even Auckland, has had to get help with convection, which is always unlikely as it is very localised.

Monday Feb 14 was charectised by very heavy rainfall, due to a squall.
And two days in a row, Matamata recieved 2 violent (purely convective) electrical storms, bringing flash flooding, Hamilton recieving next to nothing.
This was compensated on April 9, 44mm in one hour here due to convection and convergance.

[Willoughby]

...or 'Freakish New Age Bozos'- as described by Gary previously...

Good grief! How the hell did you remember that?

You must be an elephant or something.

The search feature is handy sometimes!

[Gary Roberts]

Good grief! How the hell did you remember that?

You must be an elephant or something.

The search feature is handy sometimes!

Even I don't remember writing it, and I, well...wrote it!

[Michael]

well its happened in Tauranga now

I reckon it will be a wet one lots of developed/complex depressions over N.Z especially May

Good, I can't wait

JohnGaul
NZTS