Major Hurricane PATRICIA (E PAC)

[Willoughby]

This hurricane's starting to break a few records... nearing the Mexican west coast. Huge explosion of strength during the last 24 hours.

From the NHC Miami...
...PATRICIA... ...THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD... ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY...

HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

The purpose of this special advisory is to update for a significant
increase in the intensity of the hurricane. Reports from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Patricia has intensified at an
incredible rate since yesterday. The plane measured peak 700-mb
flight level winds of 179 kt (332 km/h) in the northeastern eyewall, and this
may be an unprecedented value for a tropical cyclone. Using the 90
percent adjustment value to convert this to a surface wind speed
yields an intensity estimate of 160 kt (296 km/h), which is tied with eastern
north Pacific Hurricane Linda of 1997 for the strongest on record.
A dropsonde released into the eye measured a sea-level pressure of
894 mb with 25 kt of wind. Adjusting this pressure for the surface
winds (i.e. the drop did not land into the actual center of the eye)
gives an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb, which breaks
the record for the lowest pressure of an east Pacific hurricane.
Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today due to eyewall
replacements, but Patricia should maintain category 5 status through
landfall this afternoon or evening.

No changes are made to the track forecast from the previous
advisory.

This special advisory replaces the 0600 UTC intermediate advisory
for Patricia.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane this afternoon or evening. Preparations
to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be
completed as tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect
the area.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0530Z 16.5N 105.3W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 160 KT 185 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W 160 KT 185 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

053225W5_NL_sm[1].gif

Massive explosion in strength!

2015EP20_DGTLDVOR_201510230600[1].GIF

rbtop0-lalo[1].gif

[Willoughby]

OK! So now they say it is the strongest they've (the NHC) have ever had responsibility over - that statement INCLUDES the Atlantic!!

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and
SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia
the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's
area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the
eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure
estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for
our AOR. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could
occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery
shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend
toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the
intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast
shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the
very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after
landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than
predicted by the normal inland decay rate.

...

We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking
hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known
just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.

[Willoughby]

Here's that record breaking Hurricane Hunter recon data... (I wish we had them in Australia...)

[Nev]

Wow! Can't believe how quickly this one developed!

In just 24 hrs central pressure dropped by 100 hPa and 1-minute sustained winds increased by 100 kts, i.e. between Thu 0900z and Fri 0900z she dropped from 980 hPa to 880 hPa and 1-minute winds went from 75 kts (140 km/h) to 175 kts (325 km/h), with gusts to 210 kts (390 km/h).

Only 7 NW Pacific Typhoons are estimated to have been equal or lower in pressure, with Typhoon Tip in 1979 at 870 hPa being the lowest.

Patricia is expected to make landfall in the next few hours, with storm-surge waves of up to 12 metres. The only other known Cat 5 hurricane to make landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast was in Oct 1959, causing about 1,800 fatalities.

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

There has been little change in the satellite appearance of Patricia
since the earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft left the hurricane.
Based on this, the initial intensity remains 175 kt. Some
fluctuations in strength are possible before landfall, but it is
expected that Patricia will make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane
in southwestern Mexico in less than 12 hours. After landfall, a
combination of the mountainous terrain of Mexico and increasing
shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken, with the system
likely to dissipate completely after 36 hours.

The hurricane has turned northward since the previous advisory
and the initial motion is now 005/9. Patricia is about to
recurve into the westerlies between a mid-level anticyclone to its
east and a deep-layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the
southwestern U. S. These features should steer the cyclone
generally north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico
until dissipation occurs. The new forecast track is an update of
the previous track.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be
non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw
significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could
result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to
statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for
details.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are spreading across the area. Residents
in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area
should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be
catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

3. At this time, the Category 5 winds are occurring over a very
small area near the center - about 15 miles across. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Patricia
before landfall to see what changes in intensity and structure have
occurred.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 19.8N 105.1W 130 KT 150 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1200Z 22.9N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 25/0000Z 25.7N 101.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Hurricane Patricia - JTWC Track-map - Oct 23, 1600z.gif

20151023.1445.goes15.x.vis1km_high.20EPATRICIA.175kts-880mb-172N-1056W.96pc.jpg

Hurricane Patricia - GOES rbtop - Oct 23, 1700z.gif

[Nev]

1-minute mean winds have only decreased slightly to 165 kts (305 km/h) as she nears the coast.

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Patricia changed
little in intensity through about 1800 UTC. The aircraft measured
192 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb in the southeastern eyewall,
with a 166 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency
Microwave radiometer. The central pressure estimated from an eye
dropsonde was 879 mb. Since that time, the eye has become
cloud-filled, and data from the plane suggest the formation of an
outer wind maximum, with decreasing winds in the eyewall, and an
increasing central pressure. All of these indicate that the
hurricane is weakening. The initial intensity is reduced to 165 kt,
and this could be generous. Patricia is expected to remain a
Category 5 hurricane until landfall in southwestern Mexico in a few
hours. After landfall, a combination of the mountainous terrain of
Mexico and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly
weaken, with the system likely to dissipate completely after 36
hours, if not sooner.

Patricia is now moving north-northeastward with an initial motion
of 015/12. The cyclone is recurving into the westerlies between a
mid-level anticyclone to its east and a deep-layer trough over
northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U. S., and a faster motion
toward the north-northeast is expected for the rest of the cyclone's
life. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the east of the
previous track based on the initial position and motion. It lies
near the center of the guidance envelope at 12 hours and little to
the left of the center after that time.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be
non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw
significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could
result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to
statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for
details.
…

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 18.9N 105.2W 165 KT 190 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 21.1N 104.2W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1800Z 24.0N 102.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 25/0600Z 26.9N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[David]

Amazingly explosive development. Is this an area experiencing warmer SSTs due to El Nino?

[Nev]

Yep, waters off the coast of Mexico are currently about 2-3C warmer than normal.

Eye is currently crossing the Mexican coast…

20151023.2245.goes15.x.ir1km.20EPATRICIA.175kts-879mb-182N-1053W.74pc.jpg

20151023.2245.goes15.x.vis1km_high.20EPATRICIA.175kts-879mb-182N-1053W.100pc.jpg

Also check out this video of one of the hurricane hunter aircraft penetrating her eye-wall earlier.

[Willoughby]

Off the University of Wisconsin's ADT estimate charts! T 8.2!

20EP[1].GIF

[Willoughby]

Awesome video here from the Hurricane Hunters

Joseph Diane Klippel:

This video of our 1st eye wall penetration into Hurricane Patrica. The 1st two minutes is the approach and actual eye wall penetration, the next 2 minutes is in the actual eye of the storm and the last minute is our entry into the other side of the eye wall.

[NZstorm]

Interesting to see the Hurricane Hunters at work there.

A weather station in Mexico, near Cuixmala, recorded a sustained winds of 300km/h with a gust to 340 km/h before the power failed!

[Nev]

For posterity, Patricia made landfall at 2315z (12:15pm NZDT) yesterday as a Cat 5 hurricane with estimated 1-minute sustained winds of 270 km/h…

HURRICANE PATRICIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
625 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PATRICIA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITH 165-MPH WINDS...

Satellite images indicate that the center of the eye of Patricia
made landfall at approximately 615 PM CDT...2315 UTC...along the
coast of southwestern Mexico near Cuixmala. This position is also
about 55 miles...85 km...west-northwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The
maximum winds were estimated to be 165 mph...270 km/h.

SUMMARY OF 615 PM...2315 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 105.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES

A weather station in Mexico, near Cuixmala, recorded a sustained winds of 300km/h with a gust to 340 km/h before the power failed!

Yes, there may have be some topographical enhancement, although the website for that weather station does mark those gusts as 'suspect'. The graph below is still interesting though, as the eye looks to have passed directly over it…

Chamela-Cuixmala WS graph.png

Thought this earlier sat-pic was also kinda nice…

Hurricane Patricia - Terra Vis - Oct 23, 1730z.jpg

(source)