UK Weather - Autumn 2015

[Simon Culling]

We have now entered Autumn in the Northern Hemisphere, a season that is often referred to as one of "mists and mellow fruitfulness" which I believe is from an 'Ode to Autumn', a poem by John Keats.

I was in France during the first few days of September, but the month has started cool and showery with mostly northerly winds and this is reflected in the CET which was 12.9*C (-1.9*C) up to the 6th. The EWR for September was just 5mm up to the 5th, which is 6% of the monthly average of 78mm. We currently have a large high pressure (1033mb at 1200GMT today) just to the west of Eire and this is still maintaining the northerly flow. However, the high is expected to drift NE into Scandinavia by midweek and this will introduce a drier SE flow from the continent and this will both clear much of the low cloud and warm things up.

We have had a local ground frost on recent mornings and especially Sunday (6th) with the lowest screen minimums recorded being:

0.7*C at Shap Fell (Cumbria)
0.8*C at Swyddffynnon (Ceredigion, mid-Wales)
1.0*C at Upper Lambourn (Berkshire)
1.4*C at RAF Benson (Oxon)
2.0*C at Woburn (Bedfordshire)

Grass minimums were between 0*C and -2*C at these sites, so just a short-lived nip of frost on the ground.

[Simon Culling]

We enjoyed a mostly dry spell last week but the weather turned more unsettled from Friday (11th Sept) onwards with a low pressure system moving slowly northwards over Eire. This brought a wet day to the island and particularly the western side, whilst much of England remained dry and relatively warm. Some high rainfall totals were recorded in western Eire in the 24 hours to 2400GMT Friday 11th (figures from Met Eirann):

79.4mm at Newport (Co Mayo)
60.5mm at Sherkin Island (Co Cork)
58.4mm at Mace Head (Co Galway)
55.4mm at Valentia (Co Kerry)

These stations had also had 5-10 on the Thursday evening so it is likely that some places would have had near 100m of steady frontal rain from this system.

A succession of lows are forecast to approach the UK in the coming week to give us a rather wet and windy spell. The remnants of ex Tropical Storm Henri will become absorbed by one of these systems midweek and its movement into the UK/Europe is giving the forecasters a bit of a headache. It looks like an early dose of autumn for the foreseeable future, although there are signs of a quieter and warmer spell by next weekend.

[Simon Culling]

As a twin centred low pressure (988mb + 992mb approx.) dumbelled north eastwards over the UK yesterday some very juicy convection developed over the southern half of England behind an occluded front during the late morning. This triggered a clutch of heavy showers and thunderstorms over the Midlands which drifted slowly northwards producing at least 5 tornadoes in Gt Dalby (Leics), Duston (Northampton), Leamington Spa (Warwicks), Sleaford (Lincs) and Ashchurch (Glos).

The storm at Duston crossed the western suburbs of the city of Northampton damaging trees and houses and was filmed by a number of local residents - you can see the spinning funnel although it is rather ill-defined (it takes a while to get going). The second clip is from a different location nearby.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbd6Ak1sLzA

http://www.itv.com/news/central/story/2 ... rthampton/

Another developing low (incorporating some of the warm and moist residue air of ex Tropical Storm Henri) will push northeast across the UK tomorrow giving us another two wet days with further storm potential on Wednesday afternoon as the main rain band clears and the sun comes out.

CET for September was 13.4*C (-0.9*C) up to the 14th and the EWR was 18mm up to the 13th, which is 23% of the monthly average but this figure will rise considerably after the above mentioned rain.

[Simon Culling]

The low on Wednesday gave many areas another 10-20mm and up to 40mm in the wettest areas in SE England, but it turned drier for the weekend with plenty of sunshine after the early morning fog had cleared. It has been back to the cloud and rain today (Monday 21st Sept) and the unsettled weather looks like continuing for much of the week. The models are flirting with a drier and warmer end to the month and start to October, but with a sharper than normal SST gradient across the Atlantic suggests another push south from the jet stream will limit the length of any dry spell. If this temperature gradient persists, we could have quite a stormy autumn and start to the winter.

The CET for September was 13.2*C (-0.8*C) up to the 20th and the EWR was 45mm up to the 19th which is 57% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

The models were correct and we can look forward to a decent dry and reasonably warm spell of weather this weekend and well into next week. Whilst it will not be the fabled 'Indian Summer' the media frequently misreport, it will nevertheless be sunny and dry with pleasantly warm days (16-18*C) but cool and misty/foggy nights. The strength of he sun is still sufficient to clear the fog in the mornings although it can last for a while.

We currently have a high pressure (1030mb) centred over the southern half of the UK and this will migrate slowly to Scandinavia over the next few days maintaining a ridge over the UK, but the shift of centre will introduce an easterly flow to southern parts, so there will be a bit more of a breeze my mid-week but it should bring dry air so the sunshine will be maintained away from some eastern coasts.

The autumn colours have started to appear and this spell of dry sunny weather should give it a boost especially if we get a few nips of frost.

[Simon Culling]

The high pressure remains dominant in our weather and today (Tues 29th Sept) it was centred over Denmark at 1042mb with strong ridges extending both west and east. This system will remain in place until the weekend although it will have weakened by then and moved a little southwards opening the door to Atlantic systems next week. However the weather has been sunny and pleasantly warm and will remain so for a few days more. The mornings have been misty and cool and we will pick up a bit of a breeze here in the south from tomorrow and some cloud will encroach from the east, but this is still better than the many rainy and windy days we have to look forward to as the autumn progresses.

The first frost of the autumn was recorded on Sunday morning at a few of the Met Office sites, with the lowest temperatures being -0.5*C at South Newington (Oxfordshire) and -0.4*C at Ravensworth (N Yorkshire).

The CET for September was 12.9*C (-0,7*C) up to the 28th and the EWR was 59mm up to the 27th which is 75% of the monthly average - and that's it for the rainfall total.

[Simon Culling]

The final CET for September was 12.6*C (-1.0*C) which is the largest monthly negative anomaly since March 2013. The EWR ended up at 59mm which is 75% of the monthly average. Overall, the month was cooler, drier and sunnier than normal.

We have enjoyed over a week of fine, dry and sunny weather with pleasantly warm days and cool misty/foggy nights. This will continue into the weekend but the weather is set to change in the new week with a succession of depressions heading for the UK. The latest models put ex-Hurricane Joaquin over Eire at 960mb by next weekend.

The small village of Braemar in the Scottish Highlands recorded both the highest and lowest temperatures in the UK on 30th September with a max of 24.0*C and a min of -1.3*C and it repeated this feat yesterday (1st October) with a max of 22.7*C and a min of -2.0*C. This must be a fairly rare event for a location in Scotland and furthermore, the former date also represent the highest and lowest temperatures for the whole of the UK for the month of September.

[Simon Culling]

The fine and dry weather persisted through the weekend but we have had plenty of rain and showers in the last couple of days. However, the depression responsible is moving away today (Weds 7th Oct) with a ridge of high pressure building behind it to give a few dry and sunnier days. The winds will be from the north west so much cooler than last week with some frost on the cards. Looking further ahead, the consensus from the models is that the remnants of ex-hurricane Joaquin will now mostly make their way into Iberia and with a build of pressure to our north and east, the UK will see winds off the continent (easterly) which will bring predominantly dry weather well into next week, but on the cloudy side at times and rather cool.

The CET for October was 12.4*C (+0.2*C) up to the 6th and the EWR was 12mm up to the 5th, which is 16% of the monthly average of 87mm.

[Simon Culling]

It has remained dry since the last of the rain on Wednesday (7th Oct) with sunshine at times. The days have been pleasantly warm but the nights have been cool with ground frost in the more rural areas. We are now drawing in air from the continent so it is a little cooler today (Sunday 11th) but there is plenty of hazy sunshine through the thin Ac and Cirrus. It looks set to remain dry and settled through much of the coming week with the high pressure persisting over Scandinavia and enhanced by a build of pressure into the UK from the SW. The cool feed from the continent will persist but we should see plenty of sunshine and clear nights - good for seeing the conjunction of Venus and Jupiter in the morning sky - Mars is also there but much fainter.

The CET was 12.1*C (level) up to the 10th and the EWR was 25mm up to the 9th which is 29% of the monthly average, although the latter wont be going anywhere this week.

The pool of below average SST persists in the central north Atlantic (see map below courtesy of NOAA) and there is much debate about what this means for the forthcoming winter. Some say it will cause blocking to our east and hence cold weather, but others say that in conjunction with the much warmer than average SST's off the North American east coast will provide an ideal breeding ground for a strong jet stream and some wild and wet weather. You takes your pick!!!

[Simon Culling]

It has been a very dull week here in England and apart from a couple of hours of sunshine on Tuesday (13th Oct) we have not seen the sun since last Sunday (11th Oct), i.e. more than a week. There have also been spells of light drizzly rain over the weekend and a few heavy showers late last week as the north to north-easterly flow has persisted on the SW side of the high pressure to our east and north and latterly north west. There will be a change in the weather this week as a strengthening jet introduces low pressure systems and weather fronts to bring us our more normal autumn weather. It was also become a little milder as well.

The CET for October up to the 18th was 11.1*C (-0.3*C) and the EWR up to the 17th was 29mm which is 33% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

There was a little more mobility to the weather this past week with a number of fronts crossing the country bringing rain followed by showers and a bit more of a breeze at times. A cold front crossed the country yesterday (Sat 24th Oct) bringing a drop in temperature and a much sunnier day for today (Sunday) - this is the first mostly sunny day for 2 weeks and could not have been better timed. The clear night did give us the first general ground frost of the season with some hoar frost on the grass and cars at 7am this morning, although the lowest air temperatures were only in the range -1*C to +1*C.

The colours of autumn have been spectacular in the last 2 or 3 weeks despite the dull weather, with many rich reds, yellows and oranges to enjoy. I will try and get a few photos this afternoon.

The CET for October was 11.1*C (+0.1C) up to the 24th and the EWR was 41mm up to the 23rd, which is only 47% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

Unfortunately, the breezy and wet weather of Saturday had knocked quite a few of the leaves off the local trees so I have missed recording the display at its best. Milton Keynes is built on a grid system of roads with most of the 'avenues' and 'streets' tree-lined, so it has been a real pleasure journeying around town with all the greens, yellows, browns and reds on display for the last three weeks. It seems to have come a bit earlier this year.

A couple of photos taken yesterday (Sun 25th Oct - max temp 11*C) in the welcome sunshine:

[Richard]

The colours are lovely Simon

[Simon Culling]

They certainly are, Richard, but the photos do not do justice to the richness of the colours this year. It was very mild yesterday (Tues 27th Oct) in the sunshine with a high of 17*C. It was even warmer in the London area with 20*C reached at a few stations. Here is another photo taken from near my place of work which shows a few of the red leaf varieties:

[Richard]

And if the autumn see light winds that can help also

[Simon Culling]

Richard, we have yet to see the normal autumnal depressions that give us plenty of windy weather and this has helped to keep the leaves on the trees. High pressure has dominated the last couple of months.

We will be providing a wonderful day weatherwise for the Rugby World Cup Final which gets underway in a couple of hours time which I think is 5am your time in NZ. Currently at Heathrow, it is sunny and 16*C with only a very light south-easterly breeze - almost perfect weather for rugby. Form and past record definitely favours the All Blacks, but we should never right off the Aussies as England know all to well. Let us hope we have a good game with plenty of running rugby.

It has been mild all week with temperatures well above normal, but quite a bit of rain as well and this type of weather looks set to continue for a few more days before cooling down by mid-week. At this time of year mist and fog can be a big problem overnight and can limit the temperature rise because it can take until midday for the sun to break through the low cloud - as was the case today.

The CET for October up to the 30th was 11.1*C (+0.4*C) and the EWR up to the 29th was 65mm which is 75% of the monthly average.

[Richard]

Was ideal weather for the rugby which thankfully the AB's won, the pitch did break up a bit, when was the last rain?

[Simon Culling]

Hello Richard, yes a good result for the All Blacks and in fairness the best team in the tournament won.

With regards to rainfall, in the five days leading up to the final, 16.5mm fell at both Kew Gardens and RAF Northolt and 12mm at London Heathrow, so not exactly wet - although most of it fell on Tuesday and Thursday. In defence of the Twickenham pitch, it has staged 10 fixtures since the start of the World Cup (Friday 18th September) with 5 of those games since Saturday 17th October. Overall, it has been a well staged event which travelled to about 15 different locations and certainly increased interest in the sport.

Yesterday (Saturday 31st Oct) was a lovely warm day (for the time of year) in many places with the mercury reaching 19.5*C at Hampton (SW London), 18.6*C at Plymouth and 18.3*C at London Heathrow.

[stepr]

Im not saying anything about the Rugby (League) match right now, but weather wise, quite a remarkable day in the British Isles... with the all time November temperature record being broken in west Wales, with 22.3C being recorded in Trawscoed. The previous temperature record was 20.7C. Here it was foggy all day, but still reached 15C, which felt quite pleasant with no wind and high humidity.

[stepr]

Here not as colourful as most places, the red coloured plant is an Acer, and that is it's normal Summer colour... although there is much more colour than previous years, the trees are still overwhelmingly green, as shown by the photo.

[stepr]

[/quote]

[Orion]

Lush autumn photos, Simon and stepr.
Hope the coming winter is kind to you.

[Nev]

… quite a remarkable day in the British Isles... with the all time November temperature record being broken in west Wales, with 22.3C being recorded in Trawscoed. The previous temperature record was 20.7C. ...

Think you mean the previous UK Nov max-temp was 21.7C in Prestatyn (also in Wales) in 1946.

[stepr]

sorry yes, I mistyped! thanks

[Richard]

Lovely photos