UK Weather - Winter 2015/16

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sun 06/12/2015 03:21

The very mild and unsettled weather has continued into early December and will be with us for a while longer. The CET up to the 4th was 10.0*C (+4.9*C) although this scale of anomaly is unlikely to persist for the entire month. The EWR up to the 3rd was 16mm which is 16% of the monthly average of 96mm.

The fourth named storm of the season (Desmond - named by Met Eireann) is affecting the UK at the moment although it is quite a long way from our shores. The centre of the low at 0600GMT today (Saturday 5th Dec) was just to the SE of Iceland at 943mb and moving steadily away to the NE. However, the pressure gradient is very tight over the UK quite a long way to the south and trailing fronts are stuck over Eire, northern Egland and southern Scotland giving copious amounts of rain, enhanced orographically on the many hills in these areas. The Met Office has a red warning out for these areas today (which is the highest level) with between 150-250mm predicted for many of the upland areas. Furthermore, the winds are high in many areas - up to 50-70mph in gusts over much of the UK and there is a risk of rotor influenced enhancement to the east of the Pennines reaching 80-90mph later today and into the evening - although this is only a model prediction at the moment.

We will have a few more mild and wet days into next week but then there appears to be the prospect of a change to a colder more NW flow with sunshine and showers, wintry in the north.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Mon 07/12/2015 11:14

There was a very significant rain event this weekend associated with the storm mentioned in the post above. The worst affected areas were NW England (and particularly Cumbria), southern Scotland and N Wales where between 100-200mm fell in many places between Friday (4th) evening and Sunday (6th Dec) morning. Significant flooding has occurred in the same places affected in both 2005 and 2009. See BBC link for details:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35019021

Rainfall totals for lowland sites in the 48 hours to 0900GMT on Sunday 6th Dec were:

262.6mm at Shap Fell (Cumbria)
178.4mm at Keswick (Cumbria)
174.8mm at Blencathra (Cumbria)
170.6mm at Capel Curig ( NW Wales)
139.2mm at Eskdalemuir ( SW Scotland)

Higher totals were reported by the Environment Agency over higher ground with an as yet unconfirmed report of 352mm at Honister Pass (Cumbria) in a 24 hour period - probably the full 24hrs of Saturday.

Thankfully, despite the serious property and infrastructure damage, there appears to have been no casualties as plenty of warning was given.

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Mon 07/12/2015 12:17

I'm glad there were no casualties; remarkable, given the extent of the flooding and the damage to bridges and roads. What a mess.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Wed 09/12/2015 04:55

The Met Office have confirmed that new 24 hour and 48 hour UK rainfall records were set at the weekend. In the 24 hours to 0600GMT on Sat 5th December 341.4mm was recorded at Honister Pass in Cumbria. At nearby Thirlmere, 322.6mm fell in the same period. For the 2 day record, 405mm fell in the 48 hours to 0800GMT on Sun 6th December at Thirlmere.

These are non-standard time periods and it has to be said that rolling 24 or 48 hour periods for rainfall measurement have not been available at many sites for very long, so I am not sure we can say these were the wettest day or two day periods in the last 50, 100, 200 years etc.

For the standard 0900-0900 period the wettest day in the UK remains the 279mm that fell at Martinstown (Dorset) from a near stationary thunderstorm on 18th July 1955.

The clean up from the flooding in Cumbria (and neighbouring Yorkshire and southern Scotland) continues and at least 5000 homes were inundated with water. Some will not be fit for their owners to return to for up to a year as they will take a long time to dry out before repairs can commence. The arguments about flood defences, warnings, Government money etc continue apace.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35035816

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 09/12/2015 09:14

El Nino is also bringing heavy rainfall to western Canada/USA. I noticed a warning for 15inches a few days back.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Thu 10/12/2015 04:26

I have also noticed that NZstorm and the previous big flood in Cumbria occurred in 2009 which was the start of another El Nino event.

The recent rainfall event seems to be another due to what is termed an 'Atmospheric River' which is basically a long and narrow corridor of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere. These can become established across the Atlantic under certain synoptic conditions and when they collide with land masses (and particularly any high ground) they release this moisture as rain which can fall for a prolonged period. It is usually enhanced by the 'seeder/feeder' effect of moist air rising over hills/mountains. Another good example of this occurs on the west coast of America from California northwards to Canada - it is known as the 'Pineapple Express' over there!

The attached picture is the total precipitable water for 1200GMT on Saturday 5th December and shows a long filament of moisture stretching from the Caribbean all the way to the UK.

This product can be viewed in real time at the link below and covers the whole globe:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... sin=global

Blade · Unread post by **Blade** » Fri 11/12/2015 08:36

Hello friends

, have you guys seen the central england temperature this month so far

? The forecast show even more good weather for the next week untill 20december will be always above average so I beleive this will be the hotest december ever but still early to say

here in portugal we gonna have 22ºc next week

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Fri 11/12/2015 10:23

Hello Blade - it has indeed been very mild in the UK but temperatures will be a little lower for the next few days with plenty more rain to come. It is much cooler in Scotland with snow showers today in the Highlands down to near sea level. I cut my grass on Monday afternoon in the weak sunshine and 15*C - it felt like a spring day.

The CET was 10.3*C (+5.3*C) up to the 9th Dec making the month currently warmer than November. The EWR up to the 8th was 29mm, which is 30% of the monthly average - this might seem low bearing in mind the record rainfall in Cumbria, but this only covered a very small part of England + Wales.

There has been more heavy rainfall over Cumbria with an estimated 50-100m over the fells last night and this has brought further flooding to a few areas hit at the weekend, although the flooding at Glenridding seems to have more to do with changes to the river course caused by the earlier flooding than the heavy rain last night - although it did not help the situation. They look to be in line for more heavy rain (and snow) this weekend.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-35057763

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Tue 15/12/2015 08:23

The very mild weather has continued over most of the UK but Scotland has seen some snow and much lower temperatures, particularly from the Highlands northward. Sunday (13th Dec) was an 'ice day' in the Glens with the maximum temperature only -2.9*C at Balmoral and -2.7*C at Cromdale. The morning also saw the lowest temperature of the winter so far of -8.7*C at Dalwhinnie.

Here in the south it has remained mild, breezy, cloudy and drizzly - not a pleasant combination, and the models are showing more of the same for the rest of this week and into next week, with no chance (at the moment) of a white Christmas.

The CET for December was 9.3*C (+4.4*C) up to the 13th and the EWR was 52mm up to the 12th, which is 54% of the monthly average.

The highest CET's for December (in a series going back to 1659) are 8.1*C in 1934 and 1974, 7.7*C in 1852 and 7.6*C as far back as 1733 - so we are on target to beat this, especially looking at the latest model forecasts.

Janos · Unread post by **Janos** » Sun 20/12/2015 05:05

Incredibly mild in this part of the world. Last night when we got home at 11.00pm it was still 15deg. Out for a walk just now youd be forgiven in thinking that its early Autumn. No jackets required.

Blade · Unread post by **Blade** » Mon 21/12/2015 03:32

yea janos! Will be the hotest december of UK history by a big margin just to be in average the next days would all needed to be well below 0ºc

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Mon 21/12/2015 11:48

As the two previous posts have intimated the very mild conditions have continued with a max temperature of 17.1*C yesterday (Sat 19th Dec) at Gravesend in E London. Some of the recent evenings have seen the mercury rise back to 15-16*C as pulses of mild air cross the country with low cloud and some rain. At least our heating bills will be much lower this winter!

The CET was 9.9*C (+5.1*C) up to the 19th making it still warmer than November which itself was very mild. The EWR was 66mm up to the 18th which is 69% of the monthly average.

The week ahead will continue the mild theme with the forecasters saying it will be chillier by Christmas day. The maximum temperatures will be 8-11*C over England by then which is still 2-4*C above average, so the term 'chillier' is relative. The models are indicating a weakening of the jet by the New Year, but this is still a long way off so the indications of a more easterly flow have to be taken with a pinch of salt.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Thu 24/12/2015 10:00

Further heavy rain has caused yet more flooding in Cumbria - in the same places affected once or twice already this month. The village of Glenridding has now seen flooding on three occasions and the forecast for the next week does not bode well for this area with plenty more rain to come from Christmas Day onwards. The models have dumped the easterly at the New Year and are now suggesting a sub 940mb low crossing the north of Scotland which would give us a very stormy start to the new year.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-35159816

The CET for December up to the 22nd was 9.9*CX (+5.1*C) maintaining the massive anomaly, and the EWR was 82mm up to the 21st which is 86% of the average.

tunster · Unread post by **tunster** » Thu 24/12/2015 12:53

From WSI on Twitter:

stepr · Unread post by **stepr** » Tue 29/12/2015 08:21

26th December also saw some pretty big flooding across the cities of York, Leeds and Manchester.

The next storm is called Frank, and will arrive on the 30th. Signs are really beginning to look ominous for this one, potential for up to 150mm to fall on high ground. I suspect the worst hit place will be North Wales - this really looks like a dire situation.. I suspect there's a chance a state of emergency will be called if the system stalls, and produces heavy rain on areas that are already affected. Watch this space, this is actually a very serious situation coming up on Wednesday.

In the meantime, although my locality didn't receive flooding, here is a few picture of a local woodland which flooded in response to small streams turning into torrents.

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Tue 29/12/2015 08:42

A good thing the woodland is still there, to hold the soil together, slow the flow of water and help with absorption.
Have seen some photos of extraordinary flooding in the towns you mention, stepr. Most disheartening for those who have to endure it.
Will watch unfolding events with concerned interest.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Wed 30/12/2015 23:38

As has already been mentioned, there was considerable flooding over northern England over the Christmas period with Lancashire and Yorkshire worst hit. The BBC link below gives some indication of the rainfall and effects suffered in the last few days as well as a summary of the flooding in Cumbria earlier in the month.:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35193682

This has very much been a northern England event with rainfall here in the south being around normal. The most noteworthy weather features for us southerners is how incredibly mild it has been with the record for the month now safe despite somewhat cooler weather expected for the last two days of the month.

The CET was 9.8*C (+5.1*C) up to the 29th and the EWR was 122mm also up to the 28th, which is 128% of the monthly average.

Nice photos, stepr

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Wed 30/12/2015 23:51

Storm 'Frank' is quite a potent system which deepened very rapidly yesterday (Tues 29th Dec) as it curved north to the west of the UK and was listed at 934mb at 0600GMT this morning (Weds 30th Dec) as it approached Iceland. There were ship reports of sustained winds of hurricane force in this area and it will be interesting to see how this system impacts Iceland. The synoptic map below (copyright of the Met Office) gives a vivid impression of how tight this system is.

Its impact on the UK is more from the rain from the trailing frontal system rather than the winds, although gusts in excess of 80mph have been experienced on western coasts. The worst of the rain will affect south west Scotland and NW England with Cumbria yet again in the firing line and further flooding is inevitable.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35195275

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sat 02/01/2016 09:54

Happy New Year to all readers of The New Zealand Weather Forum.

The final provisional CET for December was 9.7*C (+5.0*C) which smashed the previous record by 1.6*C. The Met Office have given some provisional figures for both December and 2015 as a whole - and last month was also very wet and very dull over the UK.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releas ... -dec-stats

Many sites in England and Wales failed to record a single air frost in December with just -0.2*C recorded at South Newington (Oxon) on the 25th coming to mind. This is a well known cold site. Ironically, we recorded a slight frost this morning (Fri 1st Jan) at quite a few inland sites which will be included in the figures for the 31st, so just removing this milestone at the last hurdle.

More wet and windy weather is expected in the first week of January with the focus switching to NE Scotland this weekend with up to 200m predicted for east facing slopes of the Grampians.

Janos · Unread post by **Janos** » Sun 03/01/2016 01:41

What has really surprised me having lived here now for nearly 6 years is just how difficult it is for cold weather to descend into England. Unlike NZ there needs to be a very specific set up for any cold to happen. If this fails to happen then we suffer from seemingly endless Atlantic storms which bring mild wet weather like we are getting this year. Id always incorrectly assumed before living here that given the high latitude that it would be cold by default boy was I mistaken.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Mon 04/01/2016 09:56

Hello Janos - the British weather is very dominated by both the prevailing west-east jet stream at temperate latitudes and the relative warmth of the Gulf Stream - the warm sea current that flows north east from the Caribbean and probably adds 5-10*C to winter temperatures here in the UK. This is a very mobile section of the atmosphere and being on the west side of a continent, we will always be looking to the west or south west for most of our weather. However, occasionally the jet will weaken and we can come more under the influence of the northern European high pressure (often referred to as a Scandinavian High) and then we will experience much colder weather as the weather pattern effectively gets 'blocked'. If you were in the UK in late 2010 you will know how cold and snowy it can get as we had 6 weeks of it. In the last 3 winters (incl this one) we have been stuck under a relentless strong jet steam and hence it has been mild and wet and as you have commented, any cold weather appears hard to achieve.

Janos · Unread post by **Janos** » Wed 06/01/2016 06:28

Simon Culling wrote:Hello Janos - the British weather is very dominated by both the prevailing west-east jet stream at temperate latitudes and the relative warmth of the Gulf Stream - the warm sea current that flows north east from the Caribbean and probably adds 5-10*C to winter temperatures here in the UK. This is a very mobile section of the atmosphere and being on the west side of a continent, we will always be looking to the west or south west for most of our weather. However, occasionally the jet will weaken and we can come more under the influence of the northern European high pressure (often referred to as a Scandinavian High) and then we will experience much colder weather as the weather pattern effectively gets 'blocked'. If you were in the UK in late 2010 you will know how cold and snowy it can get as we had 6 weeks of it. In the last 3 winters (incl this one) we have been stuck under a relentless strong jet steam and hence it has been mild and wet and as you have commented, any cold weather appears hard to achieve.

Yes I recall the winter of 2010. It was spectacularly cold and snowy. But thank you for the summary maybe next week the cold will sink into our neighborhood.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Thu 07/01/2016 06:29

Janos, you might get your wish for some colder weather as the Met Office are going for a cool down next week with a few days of Arctic air from Monday with mostly dry, sunny and frosty weather for the South. However, that is some way into the future and I would not be surprised to see a snow potential later in the week. The really cold air over eastern Europe does not look the source of this cold - it is more from the north where the Arctic has been warmer than normal so far this winter.

The final CET for December has been confirmed as 9.7*C (+5.0*C) and the EWR was 145mm which is 152% of the average. However, this rainfall figures hides some very large regional variations with the south mostly near to average and the north well above.

The heavy rain transferred to NE Scotland over the weekend and into this week with three days of continuous (although not particularly heavy) rain. For the 72 hours to 1500GMT on Tuesday 5th January totals were:

108.5mm at Coupar Angus (Perth + Kinross, private station)
102.8mm at Aboyne (Aberdeenshire)
75.0mm at Fyvie Castle (Aberdeenshire)

Some flooding resulted, but thankfully not on the scale in December in NW England.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35229232

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sat 09/01/2016 11:33

Further heavy rain yesterday and overnight (Thurs/Fri) in the north east of Scotland has regrettably caused more flooding as the ground in the northern half of the UK is so saturated that any rainfall has the potential to create problems. In the 24 hours to 0600GMT on the 8th, 68mm fell at Aberdeen Dyce Airport and 42mm at Aboyne, booth in Aberdeenshire.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35259398

It has turned colder in Scotland with this rain turning to snow before it ended adding to the misery of those flooded out of their houses. This colder air is expected to drift slowly south next week (after yet another pulse of rain moves NE into the UK this weekend), but the models have cooled a bit on the length and extent of any cold spell, especially in the south.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Mon 11/01/2016 06:25

It has been cooler this weekend with a few showers about - some of them heavy and thundery on the south coast of England. A number of troughs have crossed the UK and given inland areas a taste of this - we had a very heavy hail shower here in Milton Keynes around 8pm last night on one of these troughs with the hail settling for a while. The colder weather will begin arriving Tues/Weds this coming week with a few wintry showers and night frosts. The models are all over the place after the end of the working week so next weekend could either be cold and frosty or wet and mild!

The CET for January was 6.2*C (+2.6*C) up to the 9th although this will fall this week. The EWR was 66mm up to the 8th which is 73% of the monthly average reflecting how wet it has been recently. Should be drier in the coming week.

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