Tropical Cyclone Ula

[jamie]

Have to laugh at the media on this storm. The past week they have been saying it might hit. It's never really looked like hitting us.

Then today stuff headline, Ula likely to miss NZ. The NZ herald has a headline, Ula to hit NZ today. [expletive deleted] is that headline from the herald. In the article it states some of the country might see some showers as it passes East. Such a terrible headline to run.

[Nev]

And this morning's remarks from JTWC…

WTPS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 26.1S 170.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
…
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 171.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 356 NM SOUTHEAST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
IS CURRENTLY AT HIGH LEVELS (25 TO 35 KNOTS). THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE UNFAVORABLE AT 25 CELSIUS AND EXPECTED TO
STEADILY DECREASE AS TC 06P MOVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. DRY AIR INTRUSION
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOLING SSTS
WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL (ET)
CIRCULATION BY TAU 24. TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ET BY TAU 36.
THIS IS A SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING A DISSIPATION
SCENARIO DUE TO MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LLCC WILL PERSIST AS AN ET
SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 36, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z AND 122100Z.//

[Nev]

Ula was downgraded to Cat 1 this evening with central pressure of 990 hPa and max winds of 75 km/h. Convection well displaced to the SE of LLCC.

MetService - High Seas Forecast: Subtropic

TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING 118
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone ULA [990hPa] centre was located near 28.3 South 172.9 East at 120600 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 28.3S 172.9E at 120600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 16 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre in the southeast semicircle and within 60 nautical miles of centre in the northwest semicircle.

Forecast position near 29.0S 174.8E at 121800 UTC
and near 28.8S 176.2E at 130600 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 117.

Issued at 7:58pm Tuesday 12 Jan 2016

[Nev]

This evening's remarks from JTWC…

WTPS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 28.3S 172.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
...
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 173.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, A 120659Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS AN LLCC WITH TIGHTLY CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SURFACE
CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW,
STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR (VWS), AND COOL (24
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC ULA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH A REGION OF EVEN COLDER SSTS
AND HIGHER VWS VALUES OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND WILL
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24,
THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
122100Z.//

[Nev]

Ex-TC Ula was finally downgraded to an extratropical cyclone about 600 km north of Cape Reinga last night, just over 14 days since it was first named. Midget TC Ula peaked on January 10/11 as a high-end Cat 4 with mean winds of 185 km/h and a central pressure of 945 hPa. Not bad for a TC that initially wasn't expected to get past Cat 1.

MetService - High Seas Forecast: Subtropic

GALE WARNING 126
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
AT 121200UTC
Low 998hPa, former Cyclone ULA, near 29S 174E moving southeast 10kt.
Within 120 nautical miles of low: Clockwise 35kt.
Gale area moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 118.

Issued at 1:40am Wednesday 13 Jan 2016