Bit belated, but thought this potential TC likely to be named today or tomorrow near the Cook Islands might be worth a thread. JTWC issued its TC Formation Alert last night…
WTPS21 PGTW 141030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2S 164.7W TO 15.8S 164.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 164.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 165.3W, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 164.1W, APPROXIMATELY 394 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE SLIGHTLY DEEPENED AND WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO A BETTER-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE LLCC IS EASILY DISCERNIBLE FROM THE 140835Z AMSUB-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE. ADDITIONALLY, A 140609Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC
WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE CENTER. HOWEVER, 30 KNOT WIND
BARBS WITHIN THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMATIVE BAND TO
THE NORTHEAST HAVE BEGUN TO WRAP CLOSER INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW WITH
CHANNELS ON BOTH THE EQUATOR AND POLEWARD SIDE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24-36
HOURS AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED BANDING AND FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151030Z.
//
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 141318 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 164.6W
AT 141200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR IMAGERY. DEPRESSION
SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TRYING TO
WRAP AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW
GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 WRAP YEILDS DT=2.0, MET AND PT AGREE.
FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTHWARD
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 13.7S 165.2W MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 14.1S 165.5W MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 14.3S 165.8W MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 14.7S 165.9W MOV SSE AT 05KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD08F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
142000 UTC.
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This low has become very well organised today. JTWC were already calling it a TC late this morning (albeit based on the usual slightly lower threshold of 1-minute means-winds), and expect it get to Cat 4 by Monday morning (NZDT). RSMC Nadi yet to come on board. Could be quite a reasonable size too…
WTPS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141021ZJAN16//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 165.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
…
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 165.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING WITHIN THE CURVED BANDING THAT IS
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
141815Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC IN THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON
THE IMPROVED OVERALL STRUCTURE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A T2.5 (35 KNOT)
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM NFFN AND PGTW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
SLOWLY POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THIS STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTERWARDS, THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE DUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 72. IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, VWS WILL INCREASE AS SSTS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF,
BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND. LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
BIFURCATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. NAVGEM AND HWRF SHOW THE
SYSTEM ROUNDING THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ACCELERATING
SOUTHEASTWARD. GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICT A STR BUILDING
IN SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE CREATING QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. DUE TO
LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IN POOR AGREEMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 141021ZJAN16 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
141030).//
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 150207 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 165.0W
AT 150000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR IMAGERY. DEPRESSION
MOVING SOUTH AT 5 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TRYING TO
WRAP AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN PAST 6
HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.55 WRAP YEILDS DT=2.5, MET
AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
...
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TC Victor was finally named this evening. Central pressure 995 hPa, max winds 65 km/h…
GALE WARNING 068 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 150634 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7 SOUTH 166.3 WEST AT 150600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 14.7S 166.3W at 150600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
45 KNOTS BY 151800 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.2S 167.0W AT 151800 UTC
AND NEAR 15.4S 167.6W AT 160600 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.
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WTPS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 14.5S 166.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
…
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 166.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 150517Z CORIOLIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING NEARLY WRAPPING COMPLETELY
AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC IN
THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED OVERALL STRUCTURE AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A T2.5 (35 KNOT) DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW
AND KNES AND A T3.0 (45 KNOT) DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PHFO. THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE TOP OF THE LLCC, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 30 DEG CELSIUS AND (SSTS) AND VERY HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
SLOWLY POLEWARD, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 72. IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, TC 07P WILL BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS AND OHC. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TRACK
THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN A PRONOUNCED SPREADING BEYOND TAU 36. NAVGEM
AND GFDN TAKE A WEAKER SYSTEM FURTHER WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING
SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A STR BUILDING IN SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE
CREATING QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT BY TAU 120. AVNO AND HWRF
INDICATE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IN THE INITIAL TAUS BEFORE RAPIDLY
MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST AFTER TAU 72. DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE DYNAMIC MODEL FIELDS, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.
//
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Didn't take long before RSMC Nadi upgraded TC Victor to Cat 2 last night…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 151321 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.4S 166.2W AT 151200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
…
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.95 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
...
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Victor's really ramping up. JTWC currently expect it to rapidly intensify to at least Cat 4 later tomorrow…
WTPS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 14.6S 166.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
...
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 166.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256 NM EAST OF
PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONSOLIDATION OF
BANDING, DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ALL QUADRANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC). DVORAK ESTIMATES AND RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA
INDICATE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ARE FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING TC 07P THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) VALUES WILL REMAIN POSITIVE NORTH OF 20 DEGREES SOUTH
AND WILL ENHANCEMENT THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL POINT
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE LLCC
AND IS CREATING AMPLE OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM. THIS DIVERGENT PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE 96 TO 120 TIMEFRAME. AS SSTS AND OHC DECREASE
AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WEAKENS, BEYOND TAU 96, THE OVERALL INTENSITY
WILL DECREASE, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL
CYCLONE. TC 07P HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, CAUSING A SOUTHWARD TURN WITH MARGINAL
ACCELERATION THROUGH TAU 72. A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST IS EXPECTED AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF
TC VICTOR. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
LEADING TO IMPROVED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK HAS
BEEN KEPT SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CONSENSUS AS IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY
SHIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND
162100Z.//
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 152005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7S 166.8W AT 151800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
…
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.95 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
...
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RSMC Nadi has a central pressure of 980 hPa with max winds at 110 km/h this afternoon, increasing to 175 km/h (Cat 4) by tomorrow. Good convective spiralling around a very discernible ragged eye throughout today. Be surprised if it isn't Cat 3 by this evening…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 160156 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 980HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.8S 165.9W AT 160000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS.
…
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TIGHTLY WRAPPING
AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH
RAGGED EYE DISCERNIBLE. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE
IN MG SURR WITHOUT EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS DT=4.5. MET=4.0, PAT=4.0. DT
NOT CLEAR CUT, FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 15.3S 166.1W MOV SSW AT 02KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 16.1S 166.1W MOV S AT 03KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 17.2S 166.0W MOV S AT 04KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 18.6S 165.8W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
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HURRICANE WARNING 076 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 160418 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0 SOUTH
165.9 WEST AT 160300 UTC.POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 15.0S 165.9W AT 160300 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 02 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS BY
170000 UTC.
...
Eye clouded a little late afternoon. Central pressure 975, with max winds up to 120 km/h…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 160732 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 166.2W AT 160600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.
...
EYE CLOUD FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNBLE. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TIGHTLY WRAPPING AROUND LLCC.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW
GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH MG EYE IN LG SURR WITH EYE ADJUSTMENT
YIELDS DT=4.5. MET=4.5, PT=4.0. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING
T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
...
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Eye less discernible and intensification has eased a little, but Victor has become well organised, with deep convection persistent overnight. Central pressure remains at 975 hPa, with winds to 120 km/h.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 161957 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 166.8W AT 161800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 02 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.
..
EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED IN THE PAST 9 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TIGHTLY WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A
LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN, LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG WITH A
BANDING FEATURE YIELDS DT=4.5. MET=4.5, PT=4.5. FT BASED ON MET. THUS
YIELDING T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
...
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WTPS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.0S 166.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
...
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 166.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM EAST OF
PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 07P HAS
BEEN UNDERGOING A PERIOD OF CYCLIC DEVELOPMENT AND WEAKENING WITH A
WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE OBSERVED ONLY TO DEGENERATE AND BECOME
CLOUD-FILLED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE T4.0/4.5 DVORAKS FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH AN
OLDER RSCAT PASS SHOWING A DIRECT PASS OVER THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM,
HELPING TO DEFINE THE WIND FIELD. A RECENT 1346Z SSMIS 37H MICROWAVE
IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THE EYE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS OBSCURED THE EYE IN THE EIR IMAGERY.
SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) IN THE 27 TO 28 CELSIUS RANGE, AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT AVAILABLE TO THE NORTH OF 20 DEGREES SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EAST
OF TC 07P IS SUPPORTING A VERY FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW PATTERN,
WITH ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM LEVELS (10 TO 15 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION, LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF TC 07P, TO BUILD SOUTHWARD STEERING TC VICTOR TO THE
SOUTH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC 07P BEYOND TAU 48, TURNING THE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LESS FAVORABLE SSTS AROUND 20
DEGREES SOUTH WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE INTENSITY, BUT
OVERALL THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE STEERING
RIDGE DEVELOPMENT AND THE CURRENT QUASI-STATIONARY POSITIONING OF TC
07P, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN LOWERED TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.//
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No change in strength since Victor became Cat 3 yesterday evening. Although appearing to bide its time, it's consolidating well and a large ragged eye has reappeared this evening…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 170743 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S 166.5W AT 170600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 03 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.
…
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION
AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH LLCC EMBEDDED
IN DG YIELDS DT=4.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING
T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
...
WTPS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 166.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
…
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 166.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 170627Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS WITHIN THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC VICTOR WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG AN AREA OF WARM SST (27 TO 28
DEGREE CELSIUS) OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TRACKING OVER COOLER WATER LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. TC
07P IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARD BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
36 CAUSING TC VICTOR TO TRACK WESTWARD AROUND TAU 48. FROM TAU 72
THROUGH 120, A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW IN
FORWARD SPEED. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
...
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Victor has this morning been battering the northern Cook Island atoll of Palmerston, about 500 km NW of Rarotonga (pop. 60). Still Cat 3 and maintaining 975 hPa, with max winds of 120 km/h (SST's 28C)...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 171940 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 166.4W AT 171800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 06 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.
…
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION
AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.0 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.5, MET=4.0 AND PT=4.0.
FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS.
...
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This morning's remarks from JTWC suggest a slight decrease in intensity this morning, but forecast to intensify a bit more tonight…
WTPS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 17.4S 166.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
…
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 166.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHEAST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN THE
DEEP LAYERED BANDING CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE OF TC 07P. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 65 KNOTS TO REFLECT THIS LOSS OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN THE BANDING FEATURES. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN
STEADY AT T4.0 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND SUPPORT THIS RECENT DROP IN
INTENSITY. TC 07P IS TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A
DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION. MODEL GUIDANCE INDI-
CATES THE STR WILL BUILD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC VICTOR IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SHIFTING THE TRACK TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 96.
AFTER WHICH, TC 07P WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THIS STR EXTENSION. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS, SUGGESTING A MORE STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) DECREASING BELOW 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS POLEWARD OF 20 DEGREES SOUTH AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
SLOWLY INCREASES AFTER TAU 24. THE FORECASTS PEAK INTENSITY OF 80
KNOTS AT TAU 24 IS BASED ON THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT PERSISTING WITH
THE AN OBSERVED INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO
A MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. EVENTUALLY THE DECREASING SSTS AND THE
STEADY INCREASE IN VWS WILL CREATE A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.//
NNNN
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Victor has become more organised overnight, gained a little strength, and is sporting quite a large eye.
Central pressure 965 hPa, max winds 140 km/h, SST's 27C.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A21 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 181334 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.8S 166.1W AT 181200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 08 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 75 KNOTS.
…
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
AROUND LLCC. CLOUD TOPS COOLING. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EYE PATTERN WITH WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT DUE
DO LARGE EYE YIELDS DT=4.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET. THUS
YIELDING T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS.
...
Last night's JTWC remarks
WTPS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 19.1S 166.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
…
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 166.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 391 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 180614Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CLOUD-TOPS HAVE COOLED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH
INCREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5, WHICH SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC
VICTOR WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG AN AREA OF WARM SST
(27C) OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TRACKING OVER COOLER WATER LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. TC 07P IS
BEING STEERED SOUTHWARD BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 72 CAUSING TC VICTOR TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND THEN WEST.
AFTER TAU 72, A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST, RECURVING THE SYSTEM, AND THEN ACCELERATING IT SOUTHWARD. TC
07P WILL BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH
COLDER WATER AND HIGHER VWS VALUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
ENTERS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES BY TAU 120 AND THEREAFTER.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSOLIDATED ON THE FORECAST TRACK OVER
THE LAST COUPLE RUNS, THEREFORE THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SUPPORTED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.//
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Interesting looking at the day9&10 of the ECMWF this morning, its showing the remnants of Victor hitting Gisborne from the northeast and running down the east of the North Island, while a tight depression spins up west of the South Island in a trough. Still a long way out, but interesting that this timeframe also corresponds to some pretty severe weather potential in other parts of the world also. Worth keeping an eye on.
Yes, may even come a little too close for comfort. Worth keeping an eye on. I think TC's that form further east usually encounter more favourable atmospheric conditions to the south, i.e. lower jet-stream and less wind-shear.
Victor has strengthened even more this morning and is now a high-end Cat 3, with central pressure of 965 hPa and max winds of 150 km/h…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A22 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 182005 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.2S 166.3W AT 181800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 07 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.
...
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
AROUND LLCC. CLOUD TOPS COOLING. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EYE PATTERN WITH WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS DT=5.0, MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS.
...
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Can someone please put the link up for the site that has all the models (or is it just GFS) forecast tracks for tropical storms? I used it a lot last year but have lost the site.
jamie wrote:Can someone please put the link up for the site that has all the models (or is it just GFS) forecast tracks for tropical storms? I used it a lot last year but have lost the site.
Victor appears to have peaked at 960 hPa this afternoon, with max winds remaining at 150 km/h. Organisation good, but convection weakening a little today…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A23 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 190132 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 960HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.6S 166.7W AT 190000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 06 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.
…
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
AROUND LLCC. CLOUD TOPS COOLING. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EYE PATTERN WITH WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT DUE
TO LARGE YIELDS DT=5.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET. THUS
YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS.
...
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Not much change in this evening's advisory remarks…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A24 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 190804 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 960HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.1S 167.1W AT 190600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.
…
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO
250HPA. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WMG EYE SURROUNDED
BY DG YEILDS DT=4.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING
T4.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS.
...
WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 20.8S 167.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
…
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 167.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
WEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A RAGGED 35NM EYE; HOWEVER, ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS
A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. A 190528Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SMALLER
(25NM) AND MORE DEFINED EYE FEATURE SUPPORTING THE CURRENT POSITION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES HAVE HELD STEADY AT T5.0 (90 KTS); HOWEVER, SATCON
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO 81 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A STRONG EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC VICTOR IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW
TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE DUE TO
AN APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING
TREND. TC 07P WILL BEGIN A WEAK EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS SUPPORTING A WESTWARD
TRACK AND FURTHER WEAKENING, BUT SPREADS BEYOND TAU 36 AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ABSORBS THE CYCLONE. THE INCREASING MODEL
SPREAD BEYOND TAU 36 LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.//
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Last edited by Nev on Wed 20/01/2016 05:00, edited 1 time in total.
Reason:Incorrect Nadi Advisory replaced
Victor weakened a little last night after peaking yesterday... banding stating to unravel and eye shrinking. Central pressure back up to 965 hPa, max winds down to 140 km/h…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A25 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 191344 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.2S 167.6W AT 191200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 75 KNOTS.
...
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING PAST 6
HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LARGE EYE. ORGANISATION
REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SST AROUND 27
DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA. SYSTEM IS
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WMG EYE
SURROUNDED BY OW YEILDS DT=4.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET.
THUS YIELDING T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS.
...
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