UK Weather - Winter 2015/16

[Simon Culling]

It has been quite a bit colder this week but still with rain (and a bit of snow) at times, although it has been dry and sunny for most of Friday and Saturday with light frosts overnight. The week ahead looks to remain cold but there is quite a lot of uncertainty on the details with the Met Office tantalisingly mentioning the potential for a 'significant snow event' in the forecast last night but omitting to say which part of the UK would be affected!!

This morning saw the lowest temperature of the winter (so far) recorded at Loch Glascarnoch (NW Highlands) where the mercury hit a low of -9.7*C, although this might be under threat this coming week. A small disturbance is running SE down the west side of the UK today (Saturday 16th) giving snow in Scotland and NW England and it will be interesting to see how much further east it gets tonight as it passes me. We could have a sprinkling of snow by morning - it is sunny and 3*C at the moment (2pm) but the cirrus is gathering.

The CET for January was 5.4*C (+1.8*C) up to the 15th and will continue to fall this week. The EWR up to the 14th was 100mm which is already 110% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

We had a sprinkling of snow overnight Saturday into Sunday which gave a depth of 3cm by 09:00 and it has remained cold over most of the UK. The snow has since melted but we have had some quite sharp frosts with a low of -5*C this morning here in Milton Keynes. The picture below was taken at 10am on Sunday morning when it was still rather dull.

The frost this morning (Tues 19th) was harsher in favoured locations with -12.4*C recorded at Kinbrace (far north of Scotland) but also -8.4*C at RAF Benson, -7.2*C at Upper Lambourn and -6.5*C at RAF Odiham here in southern England.

The cold and frosty weather will last a couple more days and then we will probably see the return of mild and unsettled weather by the end of the week.

[Simon Culling]

Wednesday (20th) morning was even colder over southern England with lows at Met Office sites of:

-8.8*C at RAF Benson (Oxfordshire)
-8.6*C at Upper Lambourn (Berkshire)
-7.5*C at South Farnborough (Hampshire) + South Newington (Oxfordshire)
-7.4*C at Bournemouth Airport (Dorset - on the south coast)

However it has turned less cold since Thursday and we are back to the wet and mild weather for the coming week with the remnants of 'Storm Jonas' set to hit us on Tues/Weds. However, this will be a different system by then and full of rain and wind rather than the snow seen in the USA.

The CET for January was 4.7*C (+1.1*C) up to the 23rd although this will rise this week. The EWR was 116mm up to the 22nd which is 128% of the monthly average - and this figure will definitely rise this week!

[Simon Culling]

It has turned much milder since our cold snap with some date records being broken. The maximum temperature on Monday (25th Jan) was 15.6*C at both Lossiemouth (Morayshire) and Keswick (Cumbria) and a total of at least 20 Met Office stations beat the old date record of 13.9*C recorded in Nantmor (Gwynedd, wales) in 1997. An even higher temperature of 16.5*C was recorded at Achnagart (NW Highlands) on the 24th (Sunday) and this beat the date record by 2.1*C. These date records extend back to around 1875.

The low pressure system that produced all the snow in the USA passed by the UK yesterday and gave a windy and wet day for most with some quite high rainfall totals again on western facing hills. The next 5 days look to remain unsettled with plenty more wind and rain. There are some hints of a cool down for early February, but nothing resembling winter has yet appeared in the models.

[Simon Culling]

A deep depression (christened 'Gertrude') passed to the north of Scotland yesterday (Fri 29th Jan) giving the UK a wet and windy day, especially in the north and west. The low bottomed out at about 948mb as it approached the coast of Norway later in the day and the strongest winds to affect the UK were felt in the Northern and Western Isles with the highest gusts at low level stations being:

105mph at Lerwick + Baltasound (both in the Shetland Isles)
103mph on Scalpay Bridge (Isle of Harris, NW Isles)
101mph at Sullom Voe (Shetland Isles)
93mph at Sumburgh Airport (also Shetland Isles)

The Lerwick observation at 14:00 included a mean speed of 68mph - so these winds could be classified as 'Hurricane Force'. The storm caused quite a bit of disruption in Scotland but thankfully no serious injuries.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-h ... s-35427984

It has turned quite a bit colder today with snow showers over Scotland and N Ireland, but here in Milton Keynes it was a sunny and blustery day with a high of 7*C after overnight rain and showers had cleared.

[Simon Culling]

Another deep depression (yes....Storm 'Henry') is passing eastwards close to Northern Scotland this evening at around 958mb but now filling - it was at 944mb at 0600 this morning further to the west of Scotland. It has already delivered gusts to 80-90mph in NW Scotland with the strongest of the winds due later this evening, so yet another dose of nasty weather for this area. Very windy over the rest of the UK tonight and tomorrow but not as disruptive as in the far N + NW. As this storm has quite a long stretch of strong WSW winds on its southern flank, it is also forecast to bring some very big waves to the west side of Scotland with current estimates near 50ft.

The forecast for later this week is still a bit hazy, but it looks like the succession of lows will continue with milder weather for us in the south and alternating mild and cold further north. Some good coastal convection on offer though on western coasts.

[TonyT]

Theres a hole in my cyclone
Stom Henry Storm Henry
Theres a hole in my cyclone
But Henry's now filling

Sorry, couldnt resist.

[Simon Culling]

I appreciate your humour, Tony. Unfortunately, the media love silly names for simple low pressure systems and they have happily embraced the Met Office and Met Eireann naming system.

The final CET for January was 5.4*C (+1.6*C) and the EWR was 149mm which is 164% of the monthly average so it has been quite a wet start to the new year.

The weather has remained changeable with further rain at times and the odd wintry shower with temperatures up and down. On Monday and Tuesday nacreous clouds were seen over many parts of the UK but particularly in the north. Unfortunately I did not see them myself as it was cloudy here at both dawn and dusk, but the pictures in this BBC article give a hint of their beauty.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-h ... s-35470260

[Simon Culling]

Saturday was a miserable, wet and windy day over much of England and Wales with the worst of the rain in the western half of this region with many places getting between 20-40mm of rain. The wind was mostly S or SSW and this gave a considerable orographic enhancement to the rain over the moors of the SW and particularly Dartmoor. There are no Met Office sites for a useful comparison, but private weather stations give an idea of how much of a difference even hills rising to only 2000ft can make. Totals are for the event which ran from mid-afternoon Friday (5th Feb) to mid-evening on Saturday (6th Feb), so something like 24-30 hours depending on location:

140.6mm at Postbridge (at 369m in middle of the moor + S aspect)
82.3mm at Douseland (at 207m on E side of the moor)
72.7mm at Haytor (at 310m on E side of the moor)
35.2mm at Exeter (at 35m and to SE of the moor)
21.8mm at Wembury (at 83m on the coast + to SW of the moor)

CET for February was 7.8*C (+3.3*C) up to the 6th and if it continues at this level we could have the warmest winter in the entire CET series. The EWR was 10mm up to the fifth and this is 15% of the monthly average (65mm). The forecast for the week ahead is cooler but still wet and windy - there could be severe gales tomorrow (Monday) across southern England.

[Simon Culling]

It was indeed windy across the south of England + Wales today as yet another named storm (Imogen!!) affected the UK. The low (963mb + twin-centred) passed across Scotland during Monday (8th Feb) but the main squeeze in the isobars was across the south west (incl S Eire) and into southern England with the wildest weather on the coast. The highest gusts I have seen are:

100mph at Prawle Point Coastguard (S Devon Coast)
99mph at Kinsale Energy Platform (off S Eire southern coast)
94mph at Seven Stones Lightship (nr the Scilly Isles, Cornwall)
83mph Pembrey Sands (S Wales)
82mph at Mumbles Lighthouse (SW Wales, very near Pembrey) + Sherkin Island (SW Eire)

These are all well exposed, but many SW and S coastal towns + villages had to put up with 50mph mean winds right on the coast with gusts to 70mph for most of the day. Further inland gusts to 63mph occurred at Bristol Filton Airport, 61mph at South Farnborough and 60mph at RAF Odiham, all in southern England. Quite a bit of the usual damage but thankfully no fatalities reported so far.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35516741

Some massive waves (up to 60ft) were reported off Cornwall as this lot of wind had a very long fetch back across the Atlantic.

[Simon Culling]

It has been cooler and somewhat drier since the last major storm passed through on Monday (8 Feb - see post above) with a mix of showers and some sunshine and light frosts at night. A low moved east across northern France yesterday and Saturday (13th Feb) was a cold and cheerless day here in Milton Keynes with light rain all day and a max of just 4*C. A light frost this morning and sunny intervals into this afternoon (Sunday) but rather cool in the brisk NNE breeze and just 5*C at best. This cooler spell will last much of the coming week with some sunshine by day and frosts at night and the relative dryness will be welcome. A return to milder and more unsettled weather looks likely next weekend.

The CET for February was 6.1*C (+2.0*C) up to the 13th and the EWR was 45mm up to the 12th which is 69% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

Two glorious sunny days today and Monday with a good frost overnight and a nice fresh (but not cold) feel to the day. The mercury fell to -5*C here in Milton Keynes this morning (Tues 1th Feb), but has picked up to (briefly) 7*C this afternoon. We have a front approaching from the west with cold air on both sides of it, so the forecast has some snow for us on Weds/Thurs night, although no more than a cm or two. After this it looks like the milder and more unsettled weather will return.

EDIT: I forgot to add that the lowest temperature of the winter was recorded on Valentines Day (14th Feb) with a reading of -14.1*C at Braemar in the Scottish Highlands.

EDIT (AGAIN): The slow moving front produced many hours of cold light rain but the temperature only fell to 2*C at its lowest and not a blob of sleet seen.

[Simon Culling]

It was briefly milder over the last weekend with 16*C reached at Exeter + Yeovilton in SW England but it was rather breezy and cloudy with a little light rain. it has turned cooler for the working week and looks to be rather chilly into the coming weekend and beyond but with mostly dry weather which will be much appreciated by us all.

CET for February was 5.5*C (+1.9*C) up to the 22nd and the EWR was 71mm up to the 21st, which is 109% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

February ended on a cooler note with some sleet and snow showers and frosty nights - the temperature fell to -10*C at Loch Glascarnoch on both the 27th and 28th Feb.

The final CET for February was 4.9*C (+1.1*C) so yet another warmer than average month. The EWR was 80mm which is 123% of the average.

[Simon Culling]

Winter 2015/16 is officially the warmest for England + Wales since digitised record start to 1910. The Met Office use this date for statistical purposes because they state that sufficient station coverage of the UK is available from 1910 onwards to provide an accurate figure for comparison. They have also stated that they are looking to extend this series back further to at least 1900.

The much older CET series goes back to 1659 although years prior to about 1800 are based more on estimates rather than actual observations. Measured against this series, winter 2015/16 was the second warmest and only beaten by 1868/1869 (6.7*C to 6.8*C respectively).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releas ... statistics