Tropical Cyclones Winston & Tatiana

[Nev]

Nadi now have Winston's central pressure down to 917 hPa, max winds up to about 230 km/h...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A40 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 200130 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 917HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0S
179.9W AT 200000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR AND RADAR
IMAGES. CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 125 KNOTS.
…
EYE WELL DEFINED. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. EYE WARMING AND
CLOUD TOPS COOLING PAST 6 HOURS. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SST
AROUND 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES IN LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE
IN CMG SURROUND YIELDS DT=7.0, MET AND PT AGREE, FT BASED ON DT. THUS
YIELDING T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC 17.1S 178.1E MOV W AT 09KT WITH 125 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 17.3S 176.7E MOV W AT 08KT WITH 125 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 211200 UTC 17.7S 175.7E MOV WSW AT 06KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 220000 UTC 18.2S 175.2E MOV WSW AT 04KT WITH 105
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

[Manukau heads obs]

WOW
that has to be the most intense TC to ever be in the Fiji waters
it is very compact though...i.e you could be 50 km away from the eye and come through relatively OK?..ie Suva might come though it relatively OK?

[Nev]

I see MetService earlier this morning said that the small island of Vanua Balavu had recorded mean-winds of 170 km/h, then a few hours later (well after the eye had passed) said that Vanua Balavu had just recorded mean-winds of 185km/h.

[Nev]

Ok, eye has dropped slightly south on the rain-radar.

Latest remarks from JTWC suggest the Winston has peaked and will weaken as it interacts with land, but will re-intensify slightly after it moves back into open waters before turning more SW…

WTPS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 179.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
…
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 179.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND CURRENT ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM LABASA, FIJI, DEPICT
A STRONG SYMMETRICAL EYEWALL SURROUNDING A 15 NM EYE, PROVIDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 160 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY VALUE OF
T7.5 (155 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND ANALYSIS OF AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE DATA.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC WINSTON REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC WINSTON CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH. BY TAU 36, TC WINSTON WILL BEGIN A SLOW TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST, ACCELERATING AND TURNING MORE SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 48 IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CUTOFF LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC WINSTON HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
TERRAIN FEATURES OF THE FIJI ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BY TAU 36 AFTER IT MOVES INTO OPEN
WATERS WITH VERY HIGH SSTS, WHILE REMAINING IN A RELATIVELY LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TURNING SOUTHWARD AND BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS
HIGHER VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT
AFTER TAU 48 AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK AFTER THIS POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//

[Manukau heads obs]

Its a record breaking (Global warming+ El Nino will be partly to blame) monster!
(and it was only last year we had a record breaking TC Pam)

[ScottyD]

Looking at the Fiji radar image,

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/fijico ... ed_fij.gif

It looks as though it's not going to pass between the islands. Appears to be starting to curve more to the south.

[David]

Yes, not looking good at all for Nadi

[harleyb]

Gusts to 195 knots! That's incredible.

[Nev]

Winstone made landfall on Viti Levu's NE coast at about 0700z (8:00pm NZDT) today.

[Nev]

Looks like Winston curved inland, then popped out again on Viti Levu's NW coast. RSMC Nadi dropped the central pressure to 915 hPa just before landfall and appears to have maintained that. Max winds remain at about 230 km/h.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A41 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 200820 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 915HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.4S 178.7E AT 200600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR,
RADAR IMAGE AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 125 KNOTS.
…
EYE WELL DEFINED. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. EYE WARMING
PAST 3 HOURS. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES IN A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW
TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE IN CMG SURROUND YIELDS DT=7.0,
MET=7.0 AND PT=6.0, FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING
T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 201800 UTC 17.7S 177.3E MOV WSW AT 06KT WITH 120
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 210600 UTC 18.1S 176.4E MOV WSW AT 06KT WITH 115
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 211800 UTC 18.7S 176.0E MOV SW AT 04KT WITH 115 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 220600 UTC 19.4S 175.9E MOV SSW AT 04KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

[Nev]

JTWC's latest remarks acknowledge landfall, but Winston doesn't appear much worse for wear…

WTPS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 178.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
...
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 178.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A 14-NM
EYE THAT HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY RAGGED AS IT NEARS THE FIJI COASTLINE.
OVER THE PAST FEW FRAMES THE SYSTEM HAS GAINED A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT AND HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN ISLAND OF VITI LEVU, FIJI. A 190650Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED ITS
CORE STRUCTURE, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, WITH INTENSE CONVECTION
STILL SURROUNDING THE SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE 14NM EYE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 155 KNOTS, ON THE
HIGHER END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 140 TO 155
KNOTS, BASED ON THE INTENSE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE STILL EVIDENT IN
MICROWAVE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
EASILY OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. IN ADDITION, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN VERY HIGH; NEAR 28 CELSIUS. TC WINSTON
CONTINUES TO TRACK ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. TC WINSTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. HOWEVER, THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS
OVER SSTS NEAR 31 CELSIUS. CONCURRENTLY, THE STEERING STR WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ALLOWING A SECONDARY RIDGE TO BUILD IN JUST
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE COMBINED EFFECTS WILL ALLOW TC WINSTON TO
TURN POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
NEAR TAU 48, TC 11P WILL REACH A SECONDARY MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 140
KNOTS DUE TO AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CAUSED BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AFTERWARDS, AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
FURTHER POLEWARD, IT WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND RAPIDLY
DECREASING SSTS. THESE DEGRADED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
THE FINAL WEAKENING TREND. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AS THE CYCLONE
NEARS TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY, A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD;
HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE
POLEWARD TURN. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE NEAR TERM, THE LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND TAU 24 LENDS LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z,
202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//

[Manukau heads obs]

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT

Insane!

[Chris Raine]

Pressure rising at Nandi and winds easing from latest METAR

[Nev]

Last night's 06Z Synoptic for Nambouwalu Aero on SW Vanua Levu recorded mean winds of 195 km/h and central pressure of 963 hPa (no 09Z Synoptic). And yes, 09Z and 10Z METARS for Nadi Aero recorded mean winds of 83 km/h, gusts to 130 km/h, and lowest pressure of 975 hPa.

RSMC Nadi has maintained Winston's central pressure at 915 hPa and max winds of 230 km/h throughout the night, whereas JTWC have him weakened slightly earlier this morning…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A42 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 201540 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 915HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5S
177.0E AT 201200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR,
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS AND RADAR IMAGE. CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT
ABOUT 14 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 125 KNOTS.
…
EYE PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED BUT STILL DECERNIBLE. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES IN A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW
TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED TO THE WEST BY THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON MG EYE IN B SURROUND WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT
YIELDS DT=5.5, MET=6.5 AND PT=6.0, FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING
T6.5/7.0/S0.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 17.6S 175.3E MOV W AT 08KT WITH 125 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 211200 UTC 17.8S 174.4E MOV W AT 06KT WITH 125 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 220000 UTC 18.3S 174.2E MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 125
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 221200 UTC 19.2S 174.6E MOV S AT 03KT WITH 125 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

WTPS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 177.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
…
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 176.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED 14-NM EYE HAS PASSED THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF VITI LEVU, FIJI AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. TC WINSTON HAS STARTED TO REGAIN ITS INTENSE CORE WITH
DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ONCE AGAIN SURROUND THE EYE FEATURE
THAT HAS RE-EMERGED OVER WATER. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE COOLING CLOUD
TOPS SEEN IN THE BD CURVE ENHANCEMENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE
DETERIORATION WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS THE CYCLONE PASSED
THROUGH FIJI. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH 10 TO
15 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) EASILY OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. IN ADDITION, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 28 CELSIUS
ARE FAVORABLE. TC WINSTON CONTINUES TO TRACK ON A WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THE
CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO RECONSOLIDATE AND THEN STRENGTHEN ONCE
AGAIN UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
CONCURRENTLY, THE STEERING STR WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ALLOWING
A SECONDARY RIDGE TO BUILD IN JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE COMBINED
EFFECTS WILL ALLOW TC WINSTON TO TURN POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST. NEAR TAU 48, TC 11P WILL REACH A
SECONDARY MAXIMUM INTENSITY DUE TO AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AFTERWARDS, AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD, IT WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE TO
HIGH VWS AND RAPIDLY DECREASING SSTS. THESE DEGRADED ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THE FINAL WEAKENING TREND. IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, AS THE CYCLONE NEARS TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY, A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
ONCE AGAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
24; HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF
THE POLEWARD TURN. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE NEAR TERM, THE LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND TAU 24 LENDS
LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//

[Manukau heads obs]

when you watch the Sat Animation, Winston seemed to have got sucked into hitting the main Island...
probably due to land friction...but it then bounced back off and then carried on its westward movement

[jamie]

Lol I think it is raining harder than 5-8mm/h around the eye.

Amazing storm this one. I can't wait to see more YouTube videos but jeez I hope they got thru last night ok.

[Nev]

This afternoon's remarks from JTWC suggest that increasing shear is weakening Winston and is probably not far off being downgraded to Cat 4…

WTPS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 174.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
…
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 174.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLOUD COVERED EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS
MAINTAINED ITSELF OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 212248Z GPM 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A VERY COMPACT CENTER, WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING EVIDENT ON THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST QUADRANTS
OF THE EYE, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WHILE THE EYE HAS REFORMED, THE FACT THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT
COMPLETELY SURROUNDED THE CENTER IS INDICATIVE OF AN OVERALL
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER-LEVELS INDICATES THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT AND IS NOW AROUND 20-25 KNOTS EASTERLY
SHEAR VECTOR. THE VWS IS BEING INDUCED BY A POINT SOURCE, WHICH WAS
ON TOP OF THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY, MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. THIS
IS ALSO DISRUPTING THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN, HELPING TO
FURTHER THE WEAKENING TREND. TC WINSTON CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. TC WINSTON WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN STATIC. TC WINSTON IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD BY TAU 24 AS
THE STEERING STR RETROGRADES WESTWARD ALLOWING A SECONDARY RIDGE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. AFTER MAKING THIS TURN, TC WINSTON WILL TAP
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, BRIEFLY ENHANCING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
ALLOWING FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS. AFTER TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES
SOUTHWARD, IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS
MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND DECREASING SSTS COMBINE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
THE STORM. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AFTER TAU 96, AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES SHALLOWER AND NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS TO A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH, FORCING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN. THE SPREAD OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND IS ONLY
IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD; THEREFORE
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//

[melja]

Is it just me or does the damage not match up with it being the strongest southern hem or the so called second strongest world wide to make landfall.

[Nev]

TC Pam was much larger, stronger and deeper when it hit Vanuatu last March.

[NZstorm]

Norfolk Island could have some interesting obs later in the week.

[melja]

Heta wiped out Niue all together and it passed 70km away from the island, I can still see trees with leaves on in nadi and the storm surge didn't look as bad as it should from 915 hPa.

[Nev]

Winston was a compact 'midget' TC, whereas Heta was an absolute monster. Nadi would also have been relatively sheltered compared io Viti Levu's north and eastern coasts. As mentioned above, Nadi Aero's half-hourly METAR's show mean-winds of 83 km/h, gusts to 130 km/h and lowest pressure of 975 hPa. Three hourly Synoptics from Nambouwalu Aero on SW Vanua Levu show mean-winds of 195 km/h and central pressure of 963 hPa. And earlier on Saturday morning the eastern island of Vanua Balvau recorded mean-winds of 220 km/h (before the communications dropped out) as Winston's eye passed directly over it.

These images taken by the NZ Defence AirForce show entire villages in parts of some Fiji's eastern islands completely flattened: DEVASTATION BY TC WINSTON IN MARITIME ISLANDS

Below is a sat-pic showing Winston's eye directly over the eastern island of Vanua Balvau...

[Nev]

TC Winston was downgraded to Cat 4 earlier this morning - central pressure of 935 hPa and max-winds to 195 km/h…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A46 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 211322 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 935HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.6S 173.2E AT 211200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 08
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 105 KNOTS.
…
EYE CLOUD FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SST AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES IN A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM IS
BEING STEERED TO THE WEST BY THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN MG EYE LG SURROUND
WITH B RING YIELDS DT=5.0, MET=5.5 AND PT=5.0, FT BASED ON DT. THUS
YIELDING T5.0/6.0/W1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 220000 UTC 17.8S 172.6E MOV WSW AT 03KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 221200 UTC 18.5S 172.6E MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 230000 UTC 19.7S 173.2E MOV SSE AT 05KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 231200 UTC 21.3S 174.2E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

WTPS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 174.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
...
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 173.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM
WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RESURGENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS SURROUNDING A CLOUD FILLED 13NM EYE. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
IS EAST TO WEST ELONGATED DUE TO PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM A
210637Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CORE WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CONFINED
TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RADIAL
EXPANSION OF MOISTURE, INDICATING A STRONGER DIVERGENT OUTFLOW
MECHANISM WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TO 125
KNOTS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY INCREASING DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 140 KNOTS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 13NM EYE IN THE
EIR LOOP. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN FAVORABLE NEAR 29
CELSIUS. TC 11P IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER
RATE, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE HAS STARTED TO RETROGRADE
TO THE WEST AND CONCEDE STEERING TO A SECOND RIDGE BUILDING IN TO
THE EAST WHICH WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AS 20 TO 25 KNOT VWS PREVENTS THE SYSTEM
FROM GAINING SYMMETRY. BEYOND TAU 24, IT WILL INTENSIFY ONCE AGAIN
AS IT TRACKS OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER (30 CELSIUS) WATER AND GAINS A
STRONGER POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GAIN LATITUDE, IT WILL MOVE OVER
DECREASING SSTS WHICH WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING TREND. AS THE CYCLONE
NEARS TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY, A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WHERE VWS WILL REACH MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS AND OUTFLOW WILL
DECREASE. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS WARM CORE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BEGIN SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNCHANGED AND CONTINUES TO DEPICTS A LARGE SPREAD
ONCE THE CYCLONE TURNS POLEWARD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS
REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
REMAINS DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z,
212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//

[Manukau heads obs]

that link to the Fiji Govt Face book page shows harrowing photos of catostrophic destruction where the trees are stripped bare and all buildings completly stripped off their foundations...its looks like a USA style Tornado has gone through, and confirms the 300+ kmh winds, so I think you need to retract your ill informed comments melja
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set ... 024&type=3

[Manukau heads obs]

just an example of one of those photos from link above...shows hill sides stripped down to dirt
looks like a bomb has gone off