Two Tasman Lows Bearing Down, Rain on the way

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 16/05/2005 20:08

Wetter than forecast today on Banks Peninsula - brief light rain at times in morning, but periods of light to moderate rain in afternoon. Cold, but only with light winds. dry now in Chch, but ground damp, so must've rained or drizzled this afternoon.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 16/05/2005 20:44

Yes Tich there was some drizzle/light rain at times off and on all day very isolated too I noticed it was much more wet with drains filled up around Hallswell today than it was in central Christchurch

.
It occured to me just before after Tich mentioned possible snow for Gary in Omarama on Wednesday that a simular situation did occur a few years back now when a low centred itself over Canterbury dumping very heavy falls of snow to inland parts of Canterbury and dumping heavy rain/sleet in the east I believe that was 2002 I think in July

.
Does anyone know what Day I mean?

. I think from what I remember it was sort of unexpected

.
Cheers
JASON

jeffsweather · Unread post by **jeffsweather** » Mon 16/05/2005 22:02

Jasestrm wrote: It occured to me just before after Tich mentioned possible snow for Gary in Omarama on Wednesday that a simular situation did occur a few years back now when a low centred itself over Canterbury dumping very heavy falls of snow to inland parts of Canterbury and dumping heavy rain/sleet in the east I believe that was 2002 I think in July .
Does anyone know what Day I mean? . I think from what I remember it was sort of unexpected .
Cheers
JASON

Hi Jason,
Bit of rain here today, but only light, looked more then it was with just 0.4mm recorded and 0.6 at the airport.

Might have been the 17th June 2002 you were thinking of. I recorded the day as
Cold with rain turning to snow in the evening. Snow fall lasted about 2.5 hours leaving around 35mm on the ground here. Main road south and airport closed at 6pm. Power off to about 4000 homes mostly in rural areas.
June 2002 here
http://weather.northcott.co.nz/index.ph ... Itemid=119

The NZ Herald news item that went with it is here
http://weather.northcott.co.nz/index.ph ... Itemid=152

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 16/05/2005 22:03

when a low centred itself over Canterbury dumping very heavy falls of snow to inland parts of Canterbury and dumping heavy rain/sleet in the east I believe that was 2002 I think in July .
Does anyone know what Day I mean? . I think from what I remember it was sort of unexpected .
Cheers

17 June 2002. Somewhat unexpected, but heavy snow had been forecast for back country areas like the Mackenzie Basin. But not to sea-level, which it did fall to, included a few hours of snow in Chch city. Strange warm advection snowfall - a driver reported snow falling at low levels all the way from Halswell to Little River, but then turning to rain as he climbed to Hilltop.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 17/05/2005 02:42

GraemeWi wrote:25 very welcome mm fell in the past 24 hours - the tanks really needed it. At least now we are safe from having them topped up with the dreaded (and despised) 'city water'!

Still more to come - expect up to 60mm!

Heaviest falls tonight...

For South Auckland northwards, there is a high risk of thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon as you should see the warmer and humid air as winds tend northerly, dragging in instability. Temps to the low 20's tomorrow.

I see MetService has forecasted 'bands of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms' for today on the brief forecast, N of Waitomo

NZstorm: I'm currently doing a Media Studies documentary thingee and i'm doing mine on the proposed pylon plan, and I ridicule Auckland just a tad, haha

But anyway I want to ask if I could use that brilliant photo of yours showing the smog over the CBD...
It would be superb if I could use it.
Cheers

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 17/05/2005 09:22

Some heavy Rain falling in Central Auckland at the moment.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 17/05/2005 09:24

Getting heavy showers here at the moment. Temp 15C.

But anyway I want to ask if I could use that brilliant photo of yours showing the smog over the CBD...

You are very welcome to use the photo Foggy.

and I ridicule Auckland just a tad

Transpower are a Wellington based company!

but then turning to rain as he climbed to Hilltop.

Some varaibility in temperature there. I remember Jim Hickey once stating that "rain had turned back into snow". Ofcoarse this is not possible. When rain freezes it turns into ice pellets.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 17/05/2005 09:45

12.1mm last hour in Grey Lynn.

The freezing level down in Invercargill looks low at 600m!

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 17/05/2005 11:06

Different weather in Chch today - weak sunshine poking through a layer of high cloud. I think many northerners will be welcoming their current rain, as I don't think they've had much for a while and water levels have been getting low. That's certainly the impression I got from people I talked to when I was up there recently.

The freezing level down in Invercargill looks low at 600m!

But I think it's dry there. The cold airmass over the central and lower SI at this stage seems to be separate from the moisture further north. BTW I notice what must've been a fohn effect on the West Coast, with Greymouth and Westport showing 16C maximums on yesterday's TV1 Weather.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 17/05/2005 12:30

But I think it's dry there. The cold airmass over the central and lower SI at this stage seems to be separate from the moisture further north.

Yes. It would be a great warm advective snow scenario but for the strong ridge over the South Island doing a good job at keeping that front back.

[/url]

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 17/05/2005 13:16

Some decent cu going up on the plains south of chch

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 17/05/2005 14:18

Yeah I've been watching that stuff bubble away since late this morning, bugger it won't get anywhere! Small bit of low level instability but then an inversion will stop it.

Auckland sounding starting to look unstable! Temp at 19 now so you'd think things may start happening..hopefully!

Cheers.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 17/05/2005 15:29

Dew Points have come up here through the day, the Airport now has a dew point of 17C.
AK 3pm Radar shows some of the showers over the North have turned heavy but there is only light showers around Auckland at the moment and it's overcaste.
I see Met Service have a mod Risk for Thunder up here and mention a low Tornado risk in their TS/SC outlook.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 17/05/2005 16:01

Overcast with scattered rain today, gusty easterlies and 16c
Lots of rain today at the Pinnicles... http://www.ew.govt.nz/enviroinfo/riverl ... _9_110.htm
Risk of thunderstorms heightening tomorrow - MetService have said as far south as Taupo

Weak tornadoes tonight north of Auckland?

READY has sput out a minimum LI of -2.253, tomorrow 9am for AK Ap
Only down to -.8 here, but more rain forecast.
For Kaitaia, a minimum LI of -3.431 at 9am and CAPE getting up to 719j/kg at the same time. If I were a storm chaser i'd head north!

Some decent snow falling at the moment inland from Kaikoura, but will be abrubtly washed away tonight by heavy rains

Cheers Steven W, is it possible to retrieve a higher res image?

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 17/05/2005 16:35

I now deam you as Storm Chaser! Go and headeth north!.

Hopefully you'll get some stuff tomorrow where you are which looks promising.

Interesting that MS have changed to possible tornadoes. When looking at the midday sounding you can see some good turning winds with nice speeds, maybe?...

Cheers.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 17/05/2005 16:59

Some decent snow falling at the moment inland from Kaikoura, but will be abrubtly washed away tonight by heavy rains

8C in Kaikoura at 3PM, but no rain there in the previous hour. Seaward Kaikouras rise to over 2500m, so you don't need particularly cold weather to bring snow to them.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 17/05/2005 19:51

Lots of rain today at the Pinnicles...

TV1 News had an item on the Coromandel floods. Looked bad enough, but even more heavy rain is expected tonight. I believe that area has already had at least 1 heavy rain event so far this year, so this is probably not a drought breaker there.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 17/05/2005 20:48

is it possible to retrieve a higher res image?

Yes, which email do I post it to.

Looks to be still hosing down on Coromandal. I have seen the Pinnicles clock up over 400mm in 24hrs. That rainguage is a bit like Milford Sound when there is a humid unstable E or NE'esterly. It clocks up the water real fast.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 17/05/2005 21:35

[quote="NZstorm"]

Yes, which email do I post it to.

is superb, thanks for that. $\:D/$

MetService have put out a low risk of thunderstorms for tomorrow, Taupo northwards...
I'm thinking it will be a 5 on John's scale north of Auckland/Coromandel and a 4 further south.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 18/05/2005 06:14

Subtropical temperatures this morning. At 6am temp 18C with dp17C.

I'm thinking it will be a 5 on John's scale north of Auckland/Coromandel and a 4 further south.

I notice there has been some lightning in the BOP this morning. But a lack of surface heating at this time of year means CAPE will remain low. Hence I don't expect much in the way of thunderstorms today but should see some heavy showers.

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Wed 18/05/2005 07:09

Quite a bit of Cloud to Cloud lightning around 1am

, and very heavy downpour at about 4am, fortunately we didn't flood this time

.

Currently a heavy downpour causing flooding in Edgecume area

.

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Wed 18/05/2005 07:16

I saw lightning starting in the N Bay of Plenty around mdnight on the tracker... news reports of some flooding around the area including Mt Maunganui..
pretty much in the cloud here in grey lynn this morning!

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 18/05/2005 07:39

This very weather situation is the one I would hope for in January when there is good surface heating to create the CAPE.

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Wed 18/05/2005 07:49

looks like there is some lightning again now around the rotorua to bop area..

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 18/05/2005 10:57

Muggy in Auckland today for the time of year, curently 20C here with a dewpoint of 18C.