Round 3/4 now..... next cold pool will be kicking in on Wednesday but before that we have front thats coming through
Metservice wrote:Late Tuesday afternoon and during the evening an active front moves from the Tasman Sea over the North Island and northern South Island.
There is a high risk of thunderstorms with this front in the west from Northland to Taranaki. These thunderstorms are likely to be accompanied by localised rainfall rates of 10 to 25mm/hr, strong wind gusts of 90 to 110 km/h, and small hail. In addition, there is a low risk that some of these thunderstorms could become SEVERE, with damaging wind gusts in excess of 110 km/h and the chance of a damaging tornado. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms across Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty from evening.
Unstable northwesterlies affect central New Zealand behind this front. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms from Waikato to Taranaki, also Horowhenua Kapiti Coast and northwest Nelson. These thunderstorms may produce localised rainfall rates of 10 to 25mm/hr, strong wind gusts of 90 to 110 km/h and small hail.
A low risk of thunderstorms extends over the central North Island and Wellington,also northern Marlborough, Nelson and Buller.
No other areas of severe convection or thunderstorms are expected.
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Looking at the Lightning activity out in the Tasman, thats the front thats coming to greet us next evening, Looking good so far. Perhaps not as dynamic as the last few fronts thats have come through, but the params a very good for some form of Thunderstorm activity as the front passes through with good temp differentiation pre/post front and good resultant forcing. Front will sit on the southern exit region of an upper level jet as well which will enhance convection on the front due to increased divergence the jet will provide.
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