General December Weather

[spwill]

The next system looks mainly aimed at the eastern high country of both Islands, Auckland looking sheltered.
Maybe a storm chase day south of Hamilton on Monday

[jamie]

Actually I had 1mm this morning. Rain gauge had bird poo blocking it.

29 days of virtually no rain here and looks like another 7-10 is likely and beyond that who knows.

December is running 2*C above normal for the month.

[cbm]

Looks like on Niwa daily climate maps South Waikato, Canterbury and a few other spots averaging over 20C, month to date.

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[ricky]

Saw a video of a great waterspout off Rakino Island from this morning

[Nev]

Saw a video of a great waterspout off Rakino Island from this morning

Impressive video! The video was on Maori TV's site, but just a still image now...

'Waterspout spotted on the Gulf Harbour '


2.0mm here this morn and 5.3mm yesterday morn.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Saw a video of a great waterspout off Rakino Island from this morning

Impressive video! The video was on Maori TV's site, but just a still image now...

'Waterspout spotted on the Gulf Harbour '


2.0mm here this morn and 5.3mm yesterday morn.

Welcome back Nev,

[NZstorm]

gfs has just 3mm for next 10 days in Auckland. Looks SW flow too which can prevent sea breeze convergence.

Interesting to see a well formed waterspout documented yesterday.

[Tornado Tim]

Monday is looking very very interesting, Will be keeping a very close eye on subsequent model runs, potential for isolated supercell/large hail in Waikato and western BOP, esp come evening round 6-7 PM.
Will deff chase that day if following runs closer to the time are similar.

[spwill]

Monday is looking very very interesting, Will be keeping a very close eye on subsequent model runs, potential for isolated supercell/large hail in Waikato and western BOP, esp come evening round 6-7 PM.
Will deff chase that day if following runs closer to the time are similar.

I am keeping Monday free as well.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Muggy day down here with some light rain falling from mid to high range cloud.

[Richard]

Just a steady NW wind all day here and a 26deg high, nice temp not too hot.

[David]

Month to date temperature anomaly map is impressive, but not at all surprising

[Richard]

Thats impressive alright, going by that my area is at 20deg mean temperature for that period where the average is around 12deg, i'm not surprised as the night time temps have been so high

[NZstorm]

Impressive temperature data there.

Thunderstorms next 3 days over NZ. Today looks to be isolated storms over the ranges Canterbury to Malborough. GFS likes the Rangitata gorge.

GFS putting out instability from Southland to Central North Island Sunday.

[NZstorm]

Met Service forecast highs looking good for Christmas day. Auckland 26C and Christchurch 29C.

[Cyclone Tracy]

SST around the upper north island are sitting between 21c to 22c. Some shallows are heading towards 25c. Based on records I've found that go back to 1981, it seems these water temperatures are 2 degrees higher than the previous December record and 3.5c above the mean. Correct me if I'm wrong but as far as I can see, it's unprecedented.

A set up like this in the mid latitudes will generally mean it goes nuclear once the Synoptics line up. The super ridge isnt letting go just yet though

[spwill]

The upper ridge over northern NZ this time of year is not unusual. I can remeber being in Auckland for a Summer in the 1980s and we got spectacular thunderstorms on quite a few occasions, I assume there were some strong cool upper systems that summer.

[RWood]

The first 14 days of Dec. at Kelburn show a mean temp. of 19.4C, a little higher than the record December value (19.0+). Monday-Friday next week will lower that but another warmup after then might put the record at risk. Sunshine record is almost certainly safe, would need 182 hours in the last 17 days to match it.

[Richard]

Storm development in the Molesworth area in the last hour

[Richard]

Ended up another warm day with 29deg high, even warmer Sunday

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Thunderstorms next 3 days over NZ. Today looks to be isolated storms over the ranges Canterbury to Malborough. GFS likes the Rangitata gorge.

GFS putting out instability from Southland to Central North Island Sunday.

Went to West Melton today to visit some friends of ours, on the way back noticed some instability along the ranges. Rangitata Gorge did look interesing but nothing much.
Over the plains did notice some Altocumulus Castellanus in the mid range cloud which means traditonally that thunderstroms are likely within the next 24 hours.
We will see what happens

[jamie]

Looks juicy waaaaaaay to my south

IMG_6686.JPG

[treetopkk]

Quite high bases on those clouds Richard considering the Kaikouras are 9000 ft . Shows lack of moisture same up our way though relatively humid [40-45%] below the 60-80% often occuring during our BOP summers. Weak cb dvpt eastern bay today .Hopefully better tomorrow ,will be more widespread, d pts still on low side.

[Richard]

Yes very high base alright, those hills you see in the photo are behind Hanmer Springs are about 1100m and then those clouds would have over the area north of Clarence river by about 30 kms, so i reckon the base could be up around 3000m, sort of heights they would get in desert areas like Arizona

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

It did trigger off there, Richard, noticed a few strikes on the Blitz.
Interesting to see what happens tomorrow down here.
Maybe MS covering their posteriors after the Oct 26th Thunderstorm here