BeaconHill wrote: Sun 17/12/2017 23:34
Photo of the cell over the Kaikoura ranges that hung round for most of today. Very visible from a stunningly clear Wellington day. Looked rather active too on the lightning trackers.
GFS currently showing a big rain maker low for the North island between Xmas and new year. I hope it holds true, even for half the amount of rain it’s currently throwing out.
Not sure about the rain post Xmas day, modelling is throwing up various possiblities.
Auckland looking a bit cloudier for Xmas day now with a low end shower chance, warm and humid.
Got hot again quick after a cool day yesterday, 29.6deg and going up fast, the NW winds have been a lot warmer here than they normally are, maybe thats because of the warmer Tasman.
The amount of rain forecasted for Boxing day is getting less each day it gets closer.
Richard wrote: Thu 21/12/2017 13:17
The amount of rain forecasted for Boxing day is getting less each day it gets closer.
I am thinking the same about the Boxing Day front over Auckland. Unless there is proper convection we will get very little precip.
Up until Tuesday, Auckland Airport had a 16 day stretch of 25C or higher max temps. When I get a chance I will have a scan though summer data and see how rare this is. Its definitely a record for December month.
I see Sydney has a forecast high of only 22C for Xmas Day with cloud and showers in an onshore flow, Boxing Day not much better. That cooler weather reaching NZ after Xmas Day.
NZstorm wrote: Thu 21/12/2017 13:29
Up until Tuesday, Auckland Airport had a 16 day stretch of 25C or higher max temps. When I get a chance I will have a scan though summer data and see how rare this is. Its definitely a record for December month.
In the warm summer of 1998 there was a 25 day period Jan into Feb.
Richard wrote: Thu 21/12/2017 13:17
The amount of rain forecasted for Boxing day is getting less each day it gets closer.
I am thinking the same about the Boxing Day front over Auckland. Unless there is proper convection we will get very little precip.
Gone from 100mm , to 50mm, to 25 and now 10mm, when the day arrives it will probably be nothing more that a dust settler.. Ive always said, you know you are in a dry spell in Canterbury, its when rain is forcasted but never arrives.
Another not very interesting day down here.
Got a few drops around 2pm but then it clouded over from the south and that was it.
boring........ but then we have had our share of storms so far this summer down here
Quite a bit of mizzle around this morning with the warm front, completely overcast. Wish it would rain rather than have this stuff that barely wets the ground.
Richard wrote: Fri 22/12/2017 06:47
well it settled the dust at least, just like the Boxing days system will do
Yesterdayfront/trough was never modelled to be much though , Boxing Day system looks more robust with a nice cold upper trough, rain or showers on Boxing Day for all but clearing quickly after that especially for areas sheltered from the SE.
I think Auckland will be fine by the 27th
Hit 26c with a 20c dew point before....dropping off now with the south westerly. Water temps now sitting around 22c and 24c in the shallows, time bomb keeps ticking. Ridge just keeps waving off the troughs and weak fronts like annoying flies. Tropics are starting to become active.
Checking the thunder chances on gfs over next few days looks like there could be isolated events somewhere in NZ on a daily basis. Today looks like the best overlap between moisture and lapse rates is the north Canterbury Kaikoura ranges.
Off topic but looks like some supercells over northern New South Wales on Christmas Day and SE Queensland Boxing day.
