Ex-tropical storm & heavy rain, Jan 31st to Feb 3

[03Stormchaser]

Is anyone going to chase this storm?

So tempted, but waiting on new tyres atm to be fitted on Thursday. Unsure driving over to the coast on a space saver would be a good idea lol

[NZstorm]

GFS total totals of 48 over the upper North Island late Thursday are a signal for possible thunder.

[melja]

Didn't hoki have like 250mm in one day at the start of the month without any real problems there not used too, I think the river at Franz might be a problem with the extra melt from the heat as well.

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[Chris Raine]

Hokitika coped earlier in the month as new storm water waste pipes had been laid through the problem areas, That event was coastal .This one has a lot of rain in the mountains so rivers likely to rise and cause flooding .There will be surface flooding in areas prone to it e.g Wingham Park on SH 6. There will be a lot of rain at Franz Josef.The centre may cross the coast somewhere between Franz Josef and Ross .North of the centre the swell and storm surge will be significant . 5 to 7 meter waves from about midday Thursday to early Friday morning. King tides of 3.6 meters midday Thursday and 3.5 meters midnight.The low pressure may add an additional 40 to 50 cm of sea level rise to the high tides and there is potential for storm surge of 70 cm to one meter in addition to the average high tide mark. The coastal communities along the West Coast have been warned by Civil Defence today and Civil Defence is activating their emergency operations centres tomorrow morning to deal with issues as they arise on Thursday

[03Stormchaser]

Didn't hoki have like 250mm in one day at the start of the month without any real problems there not used too, I think the river at Franz might be a problem with the extra melt from the heat as well.

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It's the tides and swell forcasted is the real worry!

[joecam]

Yep I'm heading over to Sth Westland tomorrow (In relation to 03stormchasers question)

[Thunder081]

I'm so tempted but the cost to bring my car to the south island and back is min $354 which is putting me off but then again you've got an ex cyclone combined with king tides and doesn't happen very often.

[Chris Raine]

For those that want to travel to South Westland good luck .Roads are expected to close with flooding by midday Thursday .There is Civil Defence planning activity for people to stay off the roads on Thursday and hunker down away from river valleys. especially targeting the tourists

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

What is this low expected to drop to, 950 hPa or what?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

For those that want to travel to South Westland good luck .Roads are expected to close with flooding by midday Thursday .There is Civil Defence planning activity for people to stay off the roads on Thursday and hunker down away from river valleys. especially targeting the tourists

Interesting you say this. With lots of tourists around and ones who don't keep up to weather forecasts, and a death results from this, the media will make this a rather large and tragic event

[Thunder081]

Could nelson be in for a similar scenario where ex cyclone ita caused wind damage there? video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvHv3w6cgJE

[joecam]

Sadly they might. But I hope it doesn't come to that.

[Chris Raine]

960hpa John

[Chris Raine]

Windows as the low approaches coast just before midday on Thursday then it weakens during afternoon as the secondary low forms east of Canterbury or Otago.Pressure tendency will give a clue re low movement over the South Island

[Chris Raine]

Try again The Windiest period is just b4 midday on Thursday

[NZstorm]

Severe gales from Taranaki to mid Canterbury.

The low looks to be one of the strongest seen in the NZ vicinity. The 850mb flow (1,500m wind) out in the Tasman is modeled to be 90knots.

[melja]

Got a mate fly back from Invercargill Thursday arvo so that will be fun for him lol

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[Tornado Tim]

ECMWF prognostic Forecasts have been remarkably consistent for the past 72 hours+, 958 hpa around the LLCC of the low. That is a very deep low!
6M+ Swell + storm surge + high rainfall falling on parched ground = likely flooding.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Interesting 24 hours coming up, the South Island record of 954 hPa at Taiaroa Head, Dunedin on Jan 16, 1939 seems safe but it certainly looks like 960's is on the cards somewhere around the SI west coast.

[jamie]

wow wee it looks to be a wild night for many. GFS surface gusts for 10am.

[Thunder081]

Geoff Mackley is going to be chasing it.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Geoff Mackley is going to be chasing it.

He would do

[joecam]

Geoff Mackley is going to be chasing it.

As a matter of fact Macko and I are sitting at the same table in Hoki talking about the old times in the USA with the US guys.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Geoff Mackley is going to be chasing it.

As a matter of fact Macko and I are sitting at the same table in Hoki talking about the old times in the USA with the US guys.

Good.
Hope you guys get some good footage tomorrow from the event
......otherwize just kidding

[joecam]

We'll try I'm Franz He's Hoki area