Re: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gita impacts NZ Feb 18th-21st

tunster · Unread post by **tunster** » Mon 19/02/2018 22:41

Freezing levels from the GFS at 1PM tomorrow. About 5800m in the warm core of Gita, meanwhile only 1300m over Stewart Island. 150kt+ jet between the two.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 19/02/2018 23:16

Light rain but much larger drops than we are used to for the past hour

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Tue 20/02/2018 06:30

Ex-TC Gita officially lost her TC status while about 700 km west of Cape Reinga at 1pm this morning…

MetService - Subtropic high seas forecast

STORM WARNING 334
This affects ocean areas: SUBTROPIC and FORTIES
AT 191200UTC
Over waters east of western boundary.
Low 980hPa, former Cyclone GITA, near 34S 165E moving southeast 18kt.
1. Within 120 nautical miles of low: Clockwise 50kt rising to 60kt next 6-12 hours.
2. Outside area 1 and within 240 nautical miles of low: Clockwise 35kt.
Storm and gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 333.

Issued at 1:40am Tuesday 20 Feb 2018

Ex-TC Gita - MetService Track-map - Feb 19, 1250z.png

Ex-TC Gita - Hima rb - Feb 19, 1230z.JPG

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 20/02/2018 06:42

6am temp for Auckland 23C!

The far west of Auckland (Awhitu) could catch a decent 50knot gust this afternoon as a weak front moves across.

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Tue 20/02/2018 06:46

Calm and wet in Welly.. Whoever mentioned Mt Kaukau, well it is just 2km from me..

Not expecting much drama before 5pm or so..

snowykiwi · Unread post by **snowykiwi** » Tue 20/02/2018 06:59

Steady light rain here in Rakaia throughout the night. Just a gentle breeze here at the moment with the rain.

By any chance does anyone have the rainfall amounts we had during the heavy rain experienced on the morning of Friday 21st July last year? That was when the road was closed between Methven and Ashburton and the Rakaia Barrhill Methven Road had various flooding on it. I'm interested in comparing that rain event to what is due to come with this system.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 20/02/2018 07:49

Brian (manukau heads observer) has mentioned on Facebook that he thinks it is tracking further north than modelled. He sees it it moving more towards Taranaki than top of south.

Brian is usually very good when it comes to winds and tracking of lows.

Will be an interesting day to watch where it does end up!

Blowy · Unread post by **Blowy** » Tue 20/02/2018 07:57

Do you have a link to Brian's page? Shame he does not post here anymore

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 20/02/2018 08:01

snowykiwi wrote: Tue 20/02/2018 06:59 Steady light rain here in Rakaia throughout the night. Just a gentle breeze here at the moment with the rain.

By any chance does anyone have the rainfall amounts we had during the heavy rain experienced on the morning of Friday 21st July last year? That was when the road was closed between Methven and Ashburton and the Rakaia Barrhill Methven Road had various flooding on it. I'm interested in comparing that rain event to what is due to come with this system.

The Ashburton Plains FWS, about half way between Ashburton and Methven shows 126mm for the event.
http://harvest.com/w.cgi?cmd=gph&hsn=12 ... &scroll=15

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 20/02/2018 08:27

jamie wrote: Tue 20/02/2018 07:49 Brian (manukau heads observer) has mentioned on Facebook that he thinks it is tracking further north than modelled. He sees it it moving more towards Taranaki than top of south.

Brian is usually very good when it comes to winds and tracking of lows.

Will be an interesting day to watch where it does end up!

No i dont think he's going to be right, watching it move on satview it looks like the top of the SI to me

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 20/02/2018 08:36

We miss the rain here, just a few showers but we might catch some wind this afternoon more paticularly about exposed parts like were Brian lives. Very humid here this afternoon, dps up to 23C as tropical air moves across.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 20/02/2018 08:38

Metservice has just suggested its going slightly on a more northern path

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 20/02/2018 08:48

At least the wind wont be to much of an issue in inland parts of Canterbury, MS have the strongest average wind speed for Culverden at 19kmph.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 20/02/2018 08:52

Coastal Canterbury, BP esp will catch the strongest winds here

Drizzly start to the day so far

Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Tue 20/02/2018 09:55

Looked at the 3-day rainfall forecast and noticed a significant increase in rainfall intensity for Chch and coastal North Canterbury from 7-10pm tonight. Lo and behold Metservice upgraded to a full rain warning for Chch, Banks Peninsula and North Otago this morning. Not able to post the rainfall chart from Metservice directly due to a browser issue. Southerlies looking nasty around that time as well.

JP. · Unread post by **JP.** » Tue 20/02/2018 09:59

Chris W wrote: Tue 20/02/2018 09:55 Looked at the 3-day rainfall forecast and noticed a significant increase in rainfall intensity for Chch and coastal North Canterbury from 7-10pm tonight. Lo and behold Metservice upgraded to a full rain warning for Chch, Banks Peninsula and North Otago this morning. Not able to post the rainfall chart from Metservice directly due to a browser issue. Southerlies looking nasty around that time as well.

Is this the one Chris?

Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Tue 20/02/2018 10:08

I was looking at the 3-day rainfall map, but the table indicates it around 8pm-10pm there so thanks for that. Auto-modelled totals yes, but still looking pretty intense this evening once the low centre passes SE of Kaikoura.

Wildland · Unread post by **Wildland** » Tue 20/02/2018 10:17

At Tawa, north of Wellington:
Steady rain began at 1 o'clock this morning - 30 mm to 0900.
Last night the Metservice website projected about 50 mm for nearby Porirua for this period, so we were well-warned.

It's been calm since dusk yesterday, with occasional random breezes.
Low cloud, mist since dawn. It's gloomy in the valley of Tawa.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 20/02/2018 10:18

EOC operation centre is starting to set up here at CCC. Looks like forecast wind and rain amounts are increasing tonight, Kaikoura looks off the charts over 100mm in 6 hours!

asuth · Unread post by **asuth** » Tue 20/02/2018 10:23

Steady rain here in Nelson all morning but not a breath of wind. Small patches of surface flooding starting to appear around town.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Tue 20/02/2018 10:53

Interesting that Canterbury Snow and Weather Watch are claiming they phoned Metservice "numerous times" this morning to give them a bollocking about Christchurch not being under a Weather Warning and that Metservice have been engaging in some "very bad forecasting"...not sure about that as alot of the models have only been suggesting up to 60-70mm for Christchurch for days now and indeed EC this morning is only going for around 50mm for Christchurch for this event

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Tue 20/02/2018 11:01

She certainly is an ugly duckling this morning. Her once perfect symmetrical beauty replaced by an ugly elongated LLCC with an entourage of troughs and occluded front. She is now officially an extra-tropical cyclone, 34 knots sustained wind zone has expanded in the last 6 hours from 130 to 143km wide based on the ADT satellite method. Latest model runs when compared to the ADT satellite tracking method for cyclones, indicates GITA is 60 to 90 km further north than models thought at this moment. Interesting few hours of observing ahead

ADT position at 10am was 36.50S 168.10E

Growler · Unread post by **Growler** » Tue 20/02/2018 11:03

17mm in Rolleston already and 12mm in Chch/Waltham as of 11am.
It's just getting heavier too, no wind, already gutters flooding.

joecam · Unread post by **joecam** » Tue 20/02/2018 11:15

Steady rainfall in Westport the the moment. Wind is light.

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Tue 20/02/2018 11:20

Just tipped over 30mm in Rangiora, been constantly raining since early this morning

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

NZ Weather Forum