General May Weather

[NZstorm]

Rain arriving over the North Island Friday PM with subtropical airmass/risk isolated thunderstorms. Wet weekend coming up.

Saturdays dewpoint chart.

[David]

Here is the latest ECMWF accumulated rainfall up until 6am Monday.

[SnwAddct]

20 degrees today

Notice a lot of information from this forum ends up on social media forecasters pages.Canterbury snow and weather watch grab a lot of Tonys Blue Skies weather info and dumb it down for their followers on Facebook.

GFS is off with the fairies at the moment.

I'm struggling to see what it is they can see that would lead them to make statements like "Not only is the freezer door going to be opened up but also kicked right off" unless they are looking past 10+ days out..

[melja]

A quiet period in the weather and pre winter isn't playing out as they hoped so there just making a play to suck the punters in. Those two particular FB pages down here thrive on winter.

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[Razor]

And now mainstream media have run with the "Stormageddon" headline .... really poor journalism yet again

http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/ ... ocid=ientp

[TonyT]

And now mainstream media have run with the "Stormageddon" headline .... really poor journalism yet again

http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/ ... ocid=ientp

The problem with this is that its not a really major storm. Significant yes, worthy of some media coverage beforehand yes, may produce some flooding in few spots. But if you are going to use a stupidly-over-the-top word to describe it, then what do you do when a stupidly-over-the-top storm comes along? Just tell everyone to go back to bed? I find it sad to see weather events weaponised in this way, and the language over-inflated for effect. Weather is serious business, people can loose lives and livelihoods. It needs to be reported carefully, not used as a vehicle for a reporter's exaggerated sense of prose.

[Growler]

STORMAGEDDON!

Prob be norwest and 20° in Canterbury instead

[03Stormchaser]

Clickbait by everyone involved it seems!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Geraldine struck by 10 metre waves

[Orion]

And now mainstream media have run with the "Stormageddon" headline .... really poor journalism yet again

http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/ ... ocid=ientp

I just logged on to post about that ridiculous headline!

[Thunder081]

Timelapse of the low that caused a 23.8 meter high wave near Campbell Island

[Cyclone Tracy]

That mother upper low over SE OZ is about to spawn a rather large cyclonic Tasman gyre and smash SE OZ. It's going to be interesting on what it does when it cuts off, as it has flow on effects for the NI over the weekend. Looking forward to watching the 12z model runs tomorrow. Saw a video before of snow falling near 600m ASL on mainland OZ in Victoria....lucky if that happens on July 10 let alone May 10 on the mainland.

IMO the OZ event is the first phase of the SSW event. 2nd phase has been showing up on GFS and the GEFS ensemble for the last few days. Zonal winds have gravitated from the Stratosphere and temperatures at the surface in Antarctica have moved 3 degrees in 8 days. This is going to be an epic polar sling shot into the mid latitudes if the Americans are correct. There seems to be a major polar jet displacement in 2 weeks on GFS with EC now hinting similar. In the meantime, I'll keep chewing my popcorn and watching the models with great interest

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

If that's case, I might go and order some more firewood

[David]

A little model disagreement on where exactly the heaviest rain will fall next several days. Latest rain accumulation charts attached.

[spwill]

Certainly a wet weekend on the way for Auckland, back into brighter weather by Monday, currently 18C with the rain not too far away on the radar.

[melja]

Very warm with 21C up the port hills at 10pm in mid May!

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[Simon Culling]

This report appeared on the BBC News website today quoting a 23.8m wave (swell) recorded off Campbell Island on Tuesday (8th May) - as reported by MetService.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-44078255

Has there been any official comment from MetService?

[treetop]

that wave would be all of 100 ft if it hit the land [breaking]!!!

[Richard]

Makes you think just how high waves are capable of getting to.

[melja]

That's a wave though not ground swell.

Opps read it again haha, it is a swell apparently.

[NZstorm]

That unstable air currently pver the Tasman Sea will be over the North Island/top of the South Island tomorrow.
Ukmet seggests an organised line could develop tomorrow morning. Waitomo /southern Waikato perhaps the best spots to catch some rumbles. Isolated tornado report possible as well upper North Island.

[Richard]

That's a wave though not ground swell.

Opps read it again haha, it is a swell apparently.

Well thats right, they are a swell, but a ground swell, that's what CHCH experienced on 22 February 2011

[Nev]

That wave was actually recorded by MetOcean Solutions Ltd, which is now a wholly owned subsidiary of state-owned MetService NZ.

Here's MetOcean's initial press-release…

http://www.metocean.co.nz/news/2018/5/9 ... hern-ocean

[David]

Hasn't been quite as wet as expected so far. Just 12mm since 1pm yesterday.

[spwill]

A better day for Auckland today than was modelled in the GFS a couple of days back, patchy rain slowly clearing and becoming brighter. Tomorrow and Tuesday look quite sunny for Auckland, a few showers in the mix and warm for May in the northerly flow.
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