This low coming across looks more widespread than the last one, but it wont bring in as much sub-tropical air which led to the localised Northland floods. Heavy snow likely on the higher grounds of the Central Plateau, especially Tuesday.
So rain developing for Northern Districts again on Monday morning/afternoon. Easterlies freshening at this stage, tending SE later by night.
Rain clearing tuesday, but heavy falls likely on the Eastern seaboard from about Whakatane to Napier. Strong southeasterlies at this stage, then lighten and tend cold southerly.
Likely high's for Tuesday:
Auckland 11c
Tauranga 10c
Hamilton 9c
Taupo 7c
Napier/Hastings: 8c
Wellington 10c but fine.
Fine across the NI on Wednesday, GFS model is suggesting more rain and easterlies by Friday
Last edited by Willoughby on Sat 16/07/2005 02:03, edited 1 time in total.
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Unread postby Manukau heads obs »
looks like a good looking accurate forecast their foggy, you have done some homework
(shame about the posting afterwards (whats the point of your postings michael?))
GFS model is suggesting more rain and easterlies by Friday
ECMWF suggests very cold westerly over country by end of week with snow to low levels in the west and south of the SI. Coronet Peak should benefit from that as will Ruapehu.
The next low-pressure system after the one on Monday, looks much worse for central and southern districts with heavy rain becoming widespread on Thursday night. Heavy snow in the deep south on Wed night.
snow-forecast.com is giving Christchurch a high of 3c on Friday with heavy rain and fresh southerly quarter winds. or Snow to low levels??
Foggy Hamilton wrote:
snow-forecast.com is giving Christchurch a high of 3c on Friday with heavy rain and fresh southerly quarter winds. or Snow to low levels??
brrrr
It has to get to 2C for snow to fall in Christchurch
Foggy Hamilton wrote:The next low-pressure system after the one on Monday, looks much worse for central and southern districts with heavy rain becoming widespread on Thursday night. Heavy snow in the deep south on Wed night.
snow-forecast.com is giving Christchurch a high of 3c on Friday with heavy rain and fresh southerly quarter winds. or Snow to low levels??
brrrr
No snow to sea level but snow too 300m, but then we are 6 days out and the models will change.
snow-forecast.com is giving Christchurch a high of 3c on Friday with heavy rain and fresh southerly quarter winds. or Snow to low levels??
Now looks like the very cold air later this week will come to NZ on a West/SouthWest flow so Fiordland, Southland, South Otago, may be Dunedin will be in the Firing line, could be a good fall down there to near Sealevel.
snow-forecast.com is giving Christchurch a high of 3c on Friday with heavy rain and fresh southerly quarter winds. or Snow to low levels??
Now looks like the very cold air later this week will come to NZ on a West/SouthWest flow so Fiordland, Southland, South Otago, may be Dunedin will be in the Firing line, could be a good fall down there to near Sealevel.
Not to keen on a West/SouthWest Flow. Rather have a SE, straight up the gunger
There is no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothes.
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Unread postby Michael »
Cant see Easterlies apart from local ones off the low felt in the upper NI and as it will be captured it will loose its influence as it moves east with a guess what ??SW flow
spwill wrote:
Now looks like the very cold air later this week will come to NZ on a West/SouthWest flow so Fiordland, Southland, South Otago, may be Dunedin will be in the Firing line, could be a good fall down there to near Sealevel.
Yes it seems to be a bit more a W/Sw flow now as the anticyclone to the south looses intensity, unless a 'rodent' does move up the SI from the SE and hits us 'straight up the gunger'
Imagine MetService using that expression
JohnGaul
NZTS
Michael wrote:Cant see Easterlies apart from local ones off the low felt in the upper NI and as it will be captured it will loose its influence as it moves east with a guess what ??SW flow
Winds look fresh ENE for the Auckland region, 100% sure on this mate.
Yup I was wrong... Flow turned southwesterly and didn't have much cold air from east of the country as first thought. Michael was right. It turned beebop SW.
Models were suggesting a day of southerlies but NZ's topography etc etc changed that...
Saturday looks like our cold day ahead with light easterlies and heavy rain. (Sunday too)
I got that term from a song on the radio in 1983 especially with SSW weather where it was dry but partly cloudy but still blew a gale when we got a lot of weather like that
Skies have clouded over now, showers look likely soon, before the heavyish rain tonight
To midnight...
In the North Island, an active frontal band is expected to sweep in from the Tasman Sea overnight. There is currently the low risk of a few thunderstorms with this front, however if thunderstorms do occur they are likely to be quite squally and may bring some damaging wind gusts and possibly small tornadoes to northern and western parts of the North Island.
Friday morning...
As mentioned above, an active frontal rainband is expected to move quickly over the North Island during the early hours of Thursday. At this stage there is a low risk of a few thunderstorms with the front, however if thunderstorms do occur they are likely to be quite squally, and may bring heavy rain, damaging wind gusts, and possibly one or two small tornadoes.
There may also be a few thunderstorms and/or heavy squally showers behind the front which affect western parts of the North Island during the morning.
(MetService severe t-storm outlook)
hmmm I think that should be the 'early hours of Friday...'
Cold bleak day in Chch; change must've come through early morning, as it was warmer overnight than so far today. Slight drizzle at times, but drizzle's getting more intense now as the cloud has thickened this afternoon.
Thunderstorms look on the cards to me tomorrow morning in the west of the North Island. Cold upper air with relatively mild moist low level air should provide an unstable lapse rate. I guessing a moderate risk.
