Hurricane Michael

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Tue 09/10/2018 07:58

Overnight Michael became a Hurricane. Currently cat 1, 978 hPa, winds of 65 knots. moving north at 6 knots. National Hurricane Center have upgraded landfall projection to be as a major Hurricane in around 48 hours.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Tue 09/10/2018 08:46

Michael currently erupting with hot towers pushing through the tropopause into the stratosphere

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 10/10/2018 11:09

EC 09/10 run 12Z showing a devastating hit on the Florida panhandle tomorrow morning (Thursday) NZ time. Most populated areas are barely above sea level in this region.

Pressure has now dropped to 956 hPa on the lastest recon fly over (a drop of 10 hPa in 3 hours), as Michael starts to intensify over 30c water. Now a Cat 3 , Major Hurricane.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 10/10/2018 13:53

Michael has closed the eyewall and has formed an eye on the latest imagery. Generally speaking, only Cat 4 & 5 do this. Waiting for the next fly over to see the obs but he's looking stronger than Hurricane Katrina.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 10/10/2018 14:40

Eyewall is now showing lots of lightning. Eyewalls normally only show lightning when strengthening with extreme updrafts. Michael is starting to mature.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 10/10/2018 15:00

Looking like a cat 3 land falling around Panama City tomorrow.

SPC are forecasting a few tornadoes within the rainbands of the hurricane.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 10/10/2018 15:05

oh dear.....Advance Dvorak Technique showing a drop of 18 hPa in 2 hours since the lightning commenced within the eyewall and now down to 920 hPa, 134 knots.

ADT is the commonly used satellite method by NOAA and others, aircraft recons are more accurate but if the ADT is even remotely close, s*** is getting real in the gulf.

David · Unread post by **David** » Wed 10/10/2018 15:26

Is Hurricane Michael coming in from the SW?

cbm · Unread post by **cbm** » Wed 10/10/2018 15:41

Bound to deposit a lot of pine needles

Acknowledge this weather event is no joke to those in the affected area.

Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 10/10/2018 16:05

David wrote: Wed 10/10/2018 15:26 Is Hurricane Michael coming in from the SW?

I think the Auckland Michael might not like these 100 knot + south westerlies either

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 10/10/2018 16:15

National Hurricane center has just upgraded Michael to hit the U.S as a Cat 4 within 20 hours. Number of Category 4+ hurricanes to hit the Florida panhandle since 1851 is 0.

Side comparison - Hurricane Katrina was a high end Cat 3.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 10/10/2018 18:48

6.28pm NZT IR Pic shows a deep convective burst propagating cyclonically around the eyewall. Cloud tops near -100c smashing through to the Stratosphere

NHC at 7pm NZT has upgraded Michael to the Category 4 Hurricane.

David · Unread post by **David** » Wed 10/10/2018 19:57

What do you reckon, any chance it gets near Cat 5 before landfall? Or environment is not favourable enough?

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 10/10/2018 20:11

David wrote: Wed 10/10/2018 19:57 What do you reckon, any chance it gets near Cat 5 before landfall? Or environment is not favourable enough?

He has defied all modern physics and spun up an inner eyewall to Cat 4 through 30 to 40 knot wind shear. I’ve never seen anything like it…..so maybe Cat 5 is a chance

Climatology suggests he can’t but this beast is something else at the moment.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 10/10/2018 20:33

His inner eyewall is now looped with lightning. A ring of fire.

Outer bands now raking the coastline with thunderstorms. I would expect tornadic activity is now ramping up.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 10/10/2018 21:56

ADT now raised the eye temp 20c in the last hour to +11c. Eye has cleared, Michael is warming. Latest air re-con has winds breaching 120 knots. Only 17 knots off a cat 5.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Edit: NHC at 10pm NZT now officially has Cat 4 Michael at 120 knots sustained winds, 943 hPa and falling.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 10/10/2018 22:40

Hurricane hunter re-con mission 13 just had a 940 hPa reading, wind pushing 125 to 130 knots. Michael is still maturing. Mission 14 is now closing in for another fly over.

Edit: mission 14 just got a 936.9 hPa reading .... he is still falling

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Thu 11/10/2018 05:19

Closing in on coast. Officially 923 hPa, 130 knots and a high end cat 4. Current hurricane hunter mission 15 has picked up he has dropped to 918.3 hPa.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Thu 11/10/2018 05:51

Eyewall now brushing the coast, Panama city could be ground zero.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Thu 11/10/2018 06:06

Land observation now gusting to near 130 mph Mexico beach, down to 928 hPa

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Thu 11/10/2018 06:17

Ob near Mexico beach now 0 mph, 923 hPa. Landfall is now underway

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Thu 11/10/2018 06:24

920 hPa, still falling.....

this makes it 46 hPa fall in the last 24 hours and the 3rd lowest pressure ever recorded on U.S soil.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Thu 11/10/2018 06:40

Final pass by Hurricane Hunter re-con on landfall has recorded 917.1 hPa and flight level wind of 152 knots. Michael will be most likely be upgraded to a Cat 5 on the data review. Current official landfall wind speed is 135 knots, 2 shy of a Cat 5 but that last mission might change that.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Thu 11/10/2018 06:49

Eye is maintaining 920 hPa . This backend is going to be nasty

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Thu 11/10/2018 06:52

Current official National Hurricane Centre advisory has 919 hPa, 135 knots and Cat 4. (I think the review will upgrade him to the 5)

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