Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
-
- Posts: 2202
- Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
- Location: Waikawa, Picton
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 74 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
8mm at chch airport today when only morning and evening drizzle is forecast.
Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk
Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk
- Richard
- Posts: 8432
- Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
- Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 1696 times
- Been thanked: 812 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
A convergence line running down the coast over Kaiapoi and airport bought that rain, dry in the city
-
- Posts: 9956
- Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
- Location: Mt Eden Auckland
- Has thanked: 881 times
- Been thanked: 894 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
Plenty of rain modelled for the upper North Island, a lot of it will be short duration heavy falls from Cb.
Dewpoint up to 19C tomorrow, our first day of humid weather for the new season
Dewpoint up to 19C tomorrow, our first day of humid weather for the new season
-
- Posts: 180
- Joined: Sun 03/06/2018 19:27
- Location: Christchurch
- Has thanked: 3 times
- Been thanked: 53 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
This is true due to the complex nature of the system. However, to be fair both models are liking the idea now of keeping the bulk to the heavier rain around Amberley northwards through Monday and Tuesday. There has been some consistency from the last 3 model runs around this, with a gradual declining trend on each run. I feel this system will need to revert within the next 12 hours to push further south if it is going to, otherwise with 48 hours we can start locking in a bit more certainty for the current target area. I'd expect to see Metservice revising their outlook to downgrade their confidence for areas south of Banks Peninsula overall.snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Fri 23/11/2018 11:34 In all honesty though, the models have been up and down like a yo-yo for the last week or so. Struggling to keep up with the atmospheric conditions currently. Less than 24hrs ago, they were picking more than 4x what they are currently saying for ChCh. Don't be surprised it it swings back on tonights run.
EDIT: They have kept the high confidence right down to Eastern Otago, perhaps due to the saturated ground there thresholds are different for this upcoming event.
Last edited by Cantab03 on Fri 23/11/2018 14:28, edited 1 time in total.
- David
- Posts: 7604
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 427 times
- Been thanked: 837 times
- Contact:
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
Metservice 3 day model has gone a little crazy for Auckland over the weekend showing almost 200mm... compare to GFS which only has about 15mm modelled...
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- snowchaser01
- Posts: 556
- Joined: Sat 11/04/2015 18:46
- Location: Northwood, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 71 times
- Been thanked: 95 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
Either that or they are seeing something we aren't...Cantab03 wrote: ↑Fri 23/11/2018 14:07This is true due to the complex nature of the system. However, to be fair both models are liking the idea now of keeping the bulk to the heavier rain around Amberley northwards through Monday and Tuesday. There has been some consistency from the last 3 model runs around this, with a gradual declining trend on each run. I feel this system will need to revert within the next 12 hours to push further south if it is going to, otherwise with 48 hours we can start locking in a bit more certainty for the current target area. I'd expect to see Metservice revising their outlook to downgrade their confidence for areas south of Banks Peninsula overall.snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Fri 23/11/2018 11:34 In all honesty though, the models have been up and down like a yo-yo for the last week or so. Struggling to keep up with the atmospheric conditions currently. Less than 24hrs ago, they were picking more than 4x what they are currently saying for ChCh. Don't be surprised it it swings back on tonights run.
EDIT: They have kept the high confidence right down to Eastern Otago, perhaps due to the saturated ground there thresholds are different for this upcoming event.
Born and bred Cantab. Weather is my passion. Reporting from northern Christchurch.
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
-
- Posts: 18569
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1789 times
- Been thanked: 1430 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
Well, I hope it dosen't rain too much down here as we are quite sogged and saturated already and I see that MS has rain for all days on their long range outlook
.....but then I think we will return to a more westerly flow in December which should dry things out
.....but then I think we will return to a more westerly flow in December which should dry things out
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
- snowchaser01
- Posts: 556
- Joined: Sat 11/04/2015 18:46
- Location: Northwood, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 71 times
- Been thanked: 95 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
Metservice have further updated their SWO to mention the chance of " unusually large and significant amounts of rain" in parts of the North Island.
Born and bred Cantab. Weather is my passion. Reporting from northern Christchurch.
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
-
- Posts: 2488
- Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
- Location: North Shore, Auckland
- Has thanked: 772 times
- Been thanked: 1719 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
Asymmetrical cyclonic gyre is now spinning hard in the SW Tasman. Down in the low 970’s. Significant atmospheric river now developing ahead of the main frontal boundary pushing into multiple troughs and a warm front. The MS High Resolution rainfall model is going rogue with the increased water vapour at mid levels over the tropics and subtropics I'd say. Chances of a mother convergence zone into the NI has increased looking at this developing feed . Back to the popcorn
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
- snowchaser01
- Posts: 556
- Joined: Sat 11/04/2015 18:46
- Location: Northwood, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 71 times
- Been thanked: 95 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
A severe weather watch has now been issued for North Otago and South Canterbury
Born and bred Cantab. Weather is my passion. Reporting from northern Christchurch.
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
-
- Posts: 3476
- Joined: Sat 15/03/2003 18:32
- Location: Christchurch (St Albans)/Akaroa
- Has thanked: 22 times
- Been thanked: 95 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
Had a wet period where I was at work in Ilam. But not all Chch got the rain - nothing at Jeff's Hillmorton station.
-
- Posts: 1444
- Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
- Location: Lyttelton
- Has thanked: 947 times
- Been thanked: 362 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
The convergence line produced heavy rain between about Kaiapoi and Leithfield on my morning commute.
- snowchaser01
- Posts: 556
- Joined: Sat 11/04/2015 18:46
- Location: Northwood, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 71 times
- Been thanked: 95 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
Latest GFS run for CHCH. moisture back up to the levels they were a couple of days ago, with nothing showing later in the week now. best part of 80mm could potentially cause some problems.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by snowchaser01 on Fri 23/11/2018 18:12, edited 1 time in total.
Born and bred Cantab. Weather is my passion. Reporting from northern Christchurch.
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
- Richard
- Posts: 8432
- Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
- Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 1696 times
- Been thanked: 812 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
Was fascinating hey, drove through it on the way to CHCH, the inflow on the SE side which looked impressive.
- Thunder081
- Posts: 469
- Joined: Wed 22/08/2012 00:10
- Location: Christchurch
- Has thanked: 140 times
- Been thanked: 464 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
Time lapse showing this storm hitting SE Aussie then moving into the Tasman Sea
Wellington southerly front timelapse: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBl3hsuIg2Q
- snowchaser01
- Posts: 556
- Joined: Sat 11/04/2015 18:46
- Location: Northwood, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 71 times
- Been thanked: 95 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
I really don't know what to think about this system currently... up and down like a yo yo, sitting on a knife edge, could go either way. Time will tell I guess.
EDIT: Where is CT when we need him... eating popcorn I suspect?
EDIT: Where is CT when we need him... eating popcorn I suspect?
Last edited by snowchaser01 on Fri 23/11/2018 21:09, edited 1 time in total.
Born and bred Cantab. Weather is my passion. Reporting from northern Christchurch.
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
- snowchaser01
- Posts: 556
- Joined: Sat 11/04/2015 18:46
- Location: Northwood, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 71 times
- Been thanked: 95 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
Certainly 11mm that was not forecast at Christchurch Airport.
Born and bred Cantab. Weather is my passion. Reporting from northern Christchurch.
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
-
- Posts: 1539
- Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
- Location: Christchurch
- Has thanked: 157 times
- Been thanked: 277 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
Latest run of EC throwing up some interesting numbers in the latest run with nearly 300mm for Kaikoura and 40mm for Christchurch, quite a contrast...
-
- Posts: 18569
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1789 times
- Been thanked: 1430 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Fri 23/11/2018 21:08Certainly 11mm that was not forecast at Christchurch Airport.
Just like the downpour we had in Geraldine this afternoon as posted on the General November Weather thread.
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
-
- Posts: 5907
- Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
- Location: Hamilton NZ
- Has thanked: 22 times
- Been thanked: 273 times
- Contact:
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
Yea CT’s posts are certainly informative and appreciated here
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
- Posts: 18569
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1789 times
- Been thanked: 1430 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
Oh no
That will wash the railway out again just after promoting the first run of the Coastal Pacific
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
- snowchaser01
- Posts: 556
- Joined: Sat 11/04/2015 18:46
- Location: Northwood, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 71 times
- Been thanked: 95 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
Well safe to say that 300mm in Kaiks would pose huge problems for the ever frail coastal road. My pick is somewhere around the 80mm mark for Christchurch.
Born and bred Cantab. Weather is my passion. Reporting from northern Christchurch.
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
- snowchaser01
- Posts: 556
- Joined: Sat 11/04/2015 18:46
- Location: Northwood, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 71 times
- Been thanked: 95 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
Absolutely... one of the highlights of my day is reading the knowledge he chooses to share with us!
Born and bred Cantab. Weather is my passion. Reporting from northern Christchurch.
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
-
- Posts: 18569
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1789 times
- Been thanked: 1430 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
I agree. Even though I don't understand some of the terminology he uses, he is an important asset to this forumsnowchaser01 wrote: ↑Fri 23/11/2018 21:23Absolutely... one of the highlights of my day is reading the knowledge he chooses to share with us!
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
- snowchaser01
- Posts: 556
- Joined: Sat 11/04/2015 18:46
- Location: Northwood, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 71 times
- Been thanked: 95 times
Re: Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)
HAHA some of it is in one ear and out the other... I have to agree with you there!NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Fri 23/11/2018 21:33I agree. Even though I don't understand some of the terminology he uses, he is an important asset to this forumsnowchaser01 wrote: ↑Fri 23/11/2018 21:23
Absolutely... one of the highlights of my day is reading the knowledge he chooses to share with us!
Born and bred Cantab. Weather is my passion. Reporting from northern Christchurch.
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA