The Gulf of Carpentaria is doing it again BoM, JTWC and all the ensembles are about 200 km out and more south west from 48 hours ago. He is on the far west side of the ark of uncertainty from 48 hours ago.
TC Owen (Strong cat 2) half over land in the SW corner of the gulf. The Upper low moving into SE OZ should create a significant surface trough connecting to Owen and assist in dragging Owen back east into the gulf but its a wait and see now.
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Thought this feisty little zombie could do with its own thread.
BoM have just upgraded Owen to a Severe Cat 3 TC and may reach Cat 4 later today.
Currently on the coast between Port Roper and Port McArthur, just west of Bing Bong.
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Owen now is now generating lightning within his inner eyewall. A sign he is maturing and has turned into a severe tropical cyclone. Conditions in and above the gulf are ripe for him to have a run at Cat 5 if he gets back out there soon.
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Owen fully crossed the coast in the last couple of hours and has wobbled slightly offshore again with his SW inner eyewall having to deal with land friction. He has basically barely moved in the last 7 hours. Holding at around 85 knots, high 960's hPa and a solid cat 3 OZ scale.
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Owen just cruising out in the gulf as a Cat 3. BoM going for further intensification and cat 4 before landfall around 7am tomorrow morning (Saturday) NZT.
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Cyclone Tracy wrote: Fri 14/12/2018 21:03
Owen just cruising out in the gulf as a Cat 3. BoM going for further intensification and cat 4 before landfall around 7am tomorrow morning (Saturday) NZT.
Cairns going all out cancelling most public events tomorrow...probably a bit extreme unless they are worried about high winds coming off the ranges.Can see it weakening quickly once it crosses land...most models have it now staying in the tropics and disappearing by mid week.
Owen has now weakened to a Cat 2 TC after crossing the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Kowanyama and the Gilbert River Mouth as a low end Cat 3 at around 6am NZDT (1700Z).
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Severe TC Owen’s 2 landfalls in the last 24 hours on microwave imagery. Dry air trying to destroy him near the 2nd crossing. Currently now still a cat 2 and to become a tropical low soon…. will he have another twist in his bizarre life?
Looks like the remnants of ExTC Owen crossed the coast back into the Coral Sea not too long ago.
BoM downgraded Owen to a Cat 1 TC around 2pm NZDT yesterday (0100Z) and was declared an ExTC by 7pm NZDT last night (0600Z).
Last night's final BoM Track-map...
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Go to this BoM link, make sure you have totals since 9am, then have your mouse over the red dots. That station ended up with 681mm in 24 hours http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/north.shtml
The media reported that 122mm of rainfall fell in the hour to 10pm at Halifax.
This Davis PWS, about 10km SSW of the BoM's 2 Halifax sites, also recorded 680mm in the 24 hrs to 9am on Sunday LT (or 676mm in the 20 hrs to 8am), about 430mm of which fell in the 6 hrs to 1am on on Sunday LT, including 99mm in the hour to 9pm on Saturday LT.
Ex TC Owen's circulation now off the coast from Mackay. Big inflow of dry southern air stopping any potential cyclonic development over the water. Steering patterns suggests he will move northward within the next 24 hours while get hammered by the dry air. Many models still show a circulation pulse off Cairns existing at the end of the week before dissolving into a trough. He is a cyclonic warrior refusing to the give in
23 days on and Owen just keeps spinning. This morning he is showing a hot tower pushing into the stratosphere and winds gusts around 20 knots. EC has him dropping to 999 hPa later today. Conditions are still not favourable to further develop but he is about to play another role in feeding an atmospheric river into a Christmas subtropical low moving south towards NZ
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BoM, JTWC and all the ensembles are about 200 km out and more south west from 48 hours ago. He is on the far west side of the ark of uncertainty from 48 hours ago.
