First Major Winter Storm of 2019

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Fri 31/05/2019 10:52

snow101 wrote: Fri 31/05/2019 10:51 Quite a failure really on MetService part.

People with no weather knowledge who follow MetService forecasts would not have seen this coming, with only rain forecast in there Canterbury Plains forecast, then all of a sudden warning of nearly half a metre of snow to 800m?!

Well done to everyone on here, and other (non govt forecasters) for correctly forecasting heavy snow to lower levels.

Could not have said it better myself! bravo all!

talbotmj15 · Unread post by **talbotmj15** » Fri 31/05/2019 11:04

Great to see the models are telling the correct picture especially if MS is to be believed. Will be interesting to see how this all plays out?

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Fri 31/05/2019 11:17

Metservice now mentioning snow to 300m in their Canterbury Plains forecast.. finally coming to the party...

talbotmj15 · Unread post by **talbotmj15** » Fri 31/05/2019 11:42

CWU have gone all out. Im not sure what data they are looking at but seems a little excessive. What are your thoughts on all this Tony or CT?

Developing News 11:15am

MAJOR SNOW EVENT LIKELY - DAMAGE TO POWER LINES, TREES AND ROAD CLOSURES ALL POSSIBLE.

Latest data is now suggesting quite an incredible snow event for the Canterbury Region.

This is now looking more and more like a (widespread event) with significant snowfall accumulations as south as Lake Tekapo; initially our 'Watch' covered areas between Methven & Kaikoura.

Please note the hills in and around Hanmer Springs, Kaikoura and Mt Lyford are most exposed where this could be a major snow event.

❄ Snowfall accumulations may approach 50-60cm to around 700-800m with significant falls to as low as 300-400m. Lighter falls to around 200m with sleety falls possible to near sea level.

All town pages, warning content and our 'Live Weather Feed' will be updated through the afternoon. Please note we'll be working around the clock and providing all that added detail and coverage via our town pages and 'feed'.

Our 'Heavy Snow Watch' will be upgraded to a full warning by 2pm.

Please 'Share' this status; especially for high country stations and all 'operations' about the Canterbury Foothills & High Country which will be most exposed.

CWU Team

joecam · Unread post by **joecam** » Fri 31/05/2019 11:50

Facebook Clickbait possibly ?

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Fri 31/05/2019 11:57

talbotmj15 wrote: Fri 31/05/2019 11:42 CWU have gone all out. Im not sure what data they are looking at but seems a little excessive. What are your thoughts on all this Tony or CT?

Anything that CWU issues, is to generate "likes" as opposed to be of any benefit to the public.

It adds to the public's confusion on the subject and infact can be seen as making situations more dangerous by providing unsubstantiated and unqualified forecasts or so called "Warnings".

Please take what they say with a very big grain of salt.

joecam wrote: Fri 31/05/2019 11:50 Facebook Clickbait possibly ?

Yes, exactly.....

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Fri 31/05/2019 11:59

What constitutes "an incredible snow event" in Canterbury anyway? I would have thought 30cm for Porters Pass and lighter falls down to 200m would be at least a once-a-year event for Canterbury?

talbotmj15 wrote: Fri 31/05/2019 11:42 CWU have gone all out. Im not sure what data they are looking at but seems a little excessive. What are your thoughts on all this Tony or CT?

Developing News 11:15am

MAJOR SNOW EVENT LIKELY - DAMAGE TO POWER LINES, TREES AND ROAD CLOSURES ALL POSSIBLE.

Latest data is now suggesting quite an incredible snow event for the Canterbury Region.

This is now looking more and more like a (widespread event) with significant snowfall accumulations as south as Lake Tekapo; initially our 'Watch' covered areas between Methven & Kaikoura.

Please note the hills in and around Hanmer Springs, Kaikoura and Mt Lyford are most exposed where this could be a major snow event.

❄ Snowfall accumulations may approach 50-60cm to around 700-800m with significant falls to as low as 300-400m. Lighter falls to around 200m with sleety falls possible to near sea level.

All town pages, warning content and our 'Live Weather Feed' will be updated through the afternoon. Please note we'll be working around the clock and providing all that added detail and coverage via our town pages and 'feed'.

Our 'Heavy Snow Watch' will be upgraded to a full warning by 2pm.

Please 'Share' this status; especially for high country stations and all 'operations' about the Canterbury Foothills & High Country which will be most exposed.

CWU Team

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Fri 31/05/2019 12:02

I would think 30cm is maybe a annual thing... but if it gets to 50cm or more.. maybe once every 5 years?

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 31/05/2019 12:29

Metservice has plonked the up to half meter line into their Porters Pass road snow warning

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 31/05/2019 12:39

talbotmj15 wrote: Fri 31/05/2019 11:42 CWU have gone all out. Im not sure what data they are looking at but seems a little excessive. What are your thoughts on all this Tony or CT?

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Fri 31/05/2019 12:44

Time for popcorn me thinks....

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 31/05/2019 12:46

Looking at the cloud building to the SW of CHCH something major could well be developing, has a real ominous look to it.

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Fri 31/05/2019 12:51

Richard wrote: Fri 31/05/2019 12:46 Looking at the cloud building to the SW of CHCH something major could well be developing, has a real ominous look to it.

I've got a feeling I haven't had since June 6th 2012...

Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Fri 31/05/2019 12:55

Pearler of a day in Amberley, but similar to you Richard there are more ominous signs in the distance.

Not surprised to see the snow level lowered, all models converged yesterday on the low crossing Hokitika to north of Chch, with high moisture levels and warm air advecting over cold. Added to that strong winds, though perhaps not severe. Tonight and tomorrow morning will be interesting.

LinksviewAcres · Unread post by **LinksviewAcres** » Fri 31/05/2019 13:01

Beaut day in CHCH at the moment.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Fri 31/05/2019 13:04

snowchaser01 wrote: Fri 31/05/2019 12:51
Richard wrote: Fri 31/05/2019 12:46 Looking at the cloud building to the SW of CHCH something major could well be developing, has a real ominous look to it.
I've got a feeling I haven't had since June 6th 2012...

I so wish you were right! the 850hpa temps of -2C compared to -5C for the 2012 event could be the real decider though for low level snow...

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Fri 31/05/2019 13:04

Bradley wrote: Fri 31/05/2019 13:04
snowchaser01 wrote: Fri 31/05/2019 12:51

I've got a feeling I haven't had since June 6th 2012...
I so wish you were right! the 850hpa temps of -2C compared to -5C for the 2012 event could be the real decider though for low level snow...

Different elements to this that weren't present in 2012 however...

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 31/05/2019 13:06

Yes indeed....

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Fri 31/05/2019 13:10

I would of been going a low to moderate risk of thunderstorms in Canterbury today
Only givin the temperatures have been so warm for time of year.
So a storm could well be on the cards along the change

tornado · Unread post by **tornado** » Fri 31/05/2019 13:11

Razor wrote: Fri 31/05/2019 13:06 Yes indeed....

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

same things hapening in auckland

Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Fri 31/05/2019 13:13

mikestormchaser wrote: Fri 31/05/2019 13:10 I would of been going a low to moderate risk of thunderstorms in Canterbury today
Only givin the temperatures have been so warm for time of year.
So a storm could well be on the cards along the change

I wondered, with frigid air aloft but thought maybe the surface temperatures were still too low? MS have a low risk from Chch northwards.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Fri 31/05/2019 13:14

snowchaser01 wrote: Fri 31/05/2019 13:04
Bradley wrote: Fri 31/05/2019 13:04

I so wish you were right! the 850hpa temps of -2C compared to -5C for the 2012 event could be the real decider though for low level snow...
Different elements to this that weren't present in 2012 however...

Please elaborate on those different elements? I wasn't living in Christchurch at the time so would be interested to know

Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Fri 31/05/2019 13:15

Radar off the coast of Ashburton looks interesting right now.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 31/05/2019 13:20

snowchaser01 wrote: Fri 31/05/2019 12:51 I've got a feeling I haven't had since June 6th 2012...

Allergic to popcorn?

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Fri 31/05/2019 13:21

TonyT wrote: Fri 31/05/2019 13:20
snowchaser01 wrote: Fri 31/05/2019 12:51 I've got a feeling I haven't had since June 6th 2012...
Allergic to popcorn?

a feeling in my gut... so i guess you could say allergic to popcorn Tony!

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