Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Fri 02/08/2019 17:30

It’s touch and go, and as with any snow setup it will go down to the wire. Quite amazing to see -40C uppers being modelled to reach Chch, even if they don’t really cause anything to happen!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 02/08/2019 18:17

The strong SW came through here at around 3:45pm but then it was just a hiss and a roar with some wheelie bins in the street being blown over (they were empty of course)
Been SW since but only lighter here.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Fri 02/08/2019 18:21

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Fri 02/08/2019 18:17 The strong SW came through here at around 3:45pm but then it was just a hiss and a roar with some wheelie bins in the street being blown over (they were empty of course)
Been SW since but only lighter here.

Came through rolleston with a hiss and roar to john i went out to grab my wheelie bins before they decided to head west.
Some interesting virga around today to. Probably noting some cold air aloft.

katipo · Unread post by **katipo** » Fri 02/08/2019 18:41

Chris W wrote: Fri 02/08/2019 17:30 It’s touch and go, and as with any snow setup it will go down to the wire. Quite amazing to see -40C uppers being modelled to reach Chch, even if they don’t really cause anything to happen!

Yeah the Metservice 3day Rain Forecast map is now showing a very cold lump of air heading for Banks Peninsula Sunday afternoon.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 02/08/2019 20:19

mikestormchaser wrote: Fri 02/08/2019 18:21 Some interesting virga around today to. Probably noting some cold air aloft.

Mostly like that down here. Very cold air aloft but I think there was about 3 spits of rain when the ticker main cloud moved through around 4pm.

Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Fri 02/08/2019 22:18

Really, really windy and wet out east and towards the tunnel tonight. Very hazardous driving conditions with strong gusts and standing water everywhere. Can’t be far off warning territory for the wind.

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Fri 02/08/2019 22:34

Chris W wrote: Fri 02/08/2019 22:18 Really, really windy and wet out east and towards the tunnel tonight. Very hazardous driving conditions with strong gusts and standing water everywhere. Can’t be far off warning territory for the wind.

I'm up under sugar loaf atm and I feel like I'm about to get blown into the Pacific... Heavy sleet/wet snow and howling gales. Wild night!!

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sat 03/08/2019 01:20

Mostly Calm with occasional squally shower thru Haswell. Bit Jekyll and hyde on the weather front here

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Sat 03/08/2019 05:16

Was next to no rain and the wind was nothing to get excited about out in Rangiora.

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 03/08/2019 07:19

Bluff would be a good weather chase Sunday to catch some thundersnow. I have only seen it once before.

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sat 03/08/2019 07:45

NZstorm wrote: Sat 03/08/2019 07:19 Bluff would be a good weather chase Sunday to catch some thundersnow. I have only seen it once before.

Boy oh boy, i'm into the whole storm chase scene... but bluff is a long way to go! What time of day Sunday do you think is a good chance?

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 03/08/2019 08:17

snowchaser01 wrote: Sat 03/08/2019 07:45
NZstorm wrote: Sat 03/08/2019 07:19 Bluff would be a good weather chase Sunday to catch some thundersnow. I have only seen it once before.
What time of day Sunday do you think is a good chance?

Thundersnow risk for Southland coast from late tonight through to tomorrow night. There will not be a lot of lightning but the chance is high for a few strikes.

Isolated thunderstorm chance around Banks Peninsula later tomorrow.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Sat 03/08/2019 09:54

Nothing of interest yesterday, as expected - need a more direct southerly flow for that. Hope it lasts - sunny again this morning so far.

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sat 03/08/2019 10:33

67817375_653002315182548_4331771953091182592_n.png

I see Weatherwatch's forecast rain radar map as a brief period of moisture over Canterbury from about Rakaia northwards tomorrow night. If this occurs there will be snow in Christchurch i would think?

hozza95 · Unread post by **hozza95** » Sat 03/08/2019 10:36

Wow. Metservice forecasting 15-20 cm's to accumulate above 100 metres and heavier snow at higher levels here in Southland from tonight through until Monday afternoon. Pretty significant if it happens

Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Sat 03/08/2019 10:44

Heavy snow watch issued, MetService going for snow to 100m in the south. IMBY they are going to north of Rangiora:

https://www.metservice.com/warnings/sev ... 222721.000

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Sat 03/08/2019 11:00

^ "IMBY" - ¿que?

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sat 03/08/2019 11:07

Latest gfs run i looked at this morning to me shows a brief period of snow to sea level in eastern Canterbury.
Chch north

Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Sat 03/08/2019 11:14

Orion wrote: Sat 03/08/2019 11:00 ^ "IMBY" - ¿que?

In my back yard

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Sat 03/08/2019 12:22

I will issue anything of interest from Thornbury with the incoming system, Currently 13.7C with A moderate northerly

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Sat 03/08/2019 15:17

Front has arrived .Moderate rain falling .Pressure has kicked up .Wind has backed to the west 15 knots.Temp 9.4C

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sat 03/08/2019 17:13

The front is a lot beefier than i thought.... 6mm in the last hour in Invercargill. MS computer generated was predicting about 1mm per hour this evening... if that.

EDIT: Temperature dropping like a rock in water too...

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sat 03/08/2019 17:23

Tony, you've been quiet the last few days... haha

what are your thoughts currently?

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sat 03/08/2019 18:17

snowchaser01 wrote: Sat 03/08/2019 17:23 Tony, you've been quiet the last few days... haha

what are your thoughts currently?

Tomorrow is probably the most difficult day to predict that I have experienced in the last, dont know how many years. Better to just stay quiet and let others make fools of themselves I think!

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sat 03/08/2019 18:22

TonyT wrote: Sat 03/08/2019 18:17
snowchaser01 wrote: Sat 03/08/2019 17:23 Tony, you've been quiet the last few days... haha

what are your thoughts currently?
Tomorrow is probably the most difficult day to predict that I have experienced in the last, dont know how many years. Better to just stay quiet and let others make fools of themselves I think!

Haha.. where is the fun in that

you must have a 2 cents worth?

NZ Weather Forum

Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th