Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Sun 04/08/2019 12:46

My guts telling me it's about 250km west of here lol

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snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sun 04/08/2019 12:47

melja wrote: Sun 04/08/2019 12:46 My guts telling me it's about 250km west of here lol

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HAHA yes but it is crossing over. Kiakoura could see sea level stuff later.. Maybe cheviot too...

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 04/08/2019 12:58

The snow was modeled for the West Coast. With SW flow they were going to catch it.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Sun 04/08/2019 13:15

Cooled a little to 11C but still mainly clear except for some medium level stratus/stratocu. travelling from about SW, in the approx. NW quadrant of the sky.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sun 04/08/2019 13:23

Razor wrote: Sun 04/08/2019 11:57 Some interesting formations to the south. Taken from Tai Tapu

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Boom?

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sun 04/08/2019 13:24

Tony do you have a 2cents worth yet? haha

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sun 04/08/2019 13:26

Nearly 20c difference between sea surface and 850 hPa at the moment on the west coast of the SI. Key ingredient of cold convection

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sun 04/08/2019 13:40

Some nice cumulus congestus around. 500mb temp -34 at 3pm so that will create some instability.
Just a dull overcast day atm, nothing to be excited about yet. But who knows

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sun 04/08/2019 13:57

Sitting on the fence currently... could go either way for me ...

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sun 04/08/2019 14:08

snowchaser01 wrote: Sun 04/08/2019 13:57 Sitting on the fence currently... could go either way for me ...

So you've finally sided with me then...

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sun 04/08/2019 14:10

mikestormchaser wrote: Sun 04/08/2019 13:40 Some nice cumulus congestus around. 500mb temp -34 at 3pm so that will create some instability.

Boom boom?

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sun 04/08/2019 14:10

TonyT wrote: Sun 04/08/2019 14:08
snowchaser01 wrote: Sun 04/08/2019 13:57 Sitting on the fence currently... could go either way for me ...
So you've finally sided with me then...

Yea I'm just watching the radar... and watching snow fall in hokitika and greymouth...

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Sun 04/08/2019 14:11

To dry and to SW, it never really showed any potential for a day or two for around here IMO.

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Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Sun 04/08/2019 14:14

Thunderstorm woke me at 8.50am .Said storm gave 5cm of snow lying from 0930 to 1200 .Brief clearance but snow is back . .Temp 1.1C

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sun 04/08/2019 14:42

Some slight shower activity showing in South Canterbury atm...

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sun 04/08/2019 14:58

melja wrote: Sun 04/08/2019 14:11 To dry and to SW, it never really showed any potential for a day or two for around here IMO.

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I was sitting on the fence myself but my confidence of 50/50 is more like 90/10 nothing will happen for the city south now. I really cant see anything exciting or unexpected happening. Ill eat my hat if it did!
Roll on spring

hozza95 · Unread post by **hozza95** » Sun 04/08/2019 15:07

It's like a whiteout here right now. Absolutely puking down for the last 10 minutes

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sun 04/08/2019 15:13

Some very steep lapse rates observed on the 11am / midday soundings at Invercargill and Kapiti to 9C per km

Invers:

image.png

Pram:

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Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sun 04/08/2019 15:39

mikestormchaser wrote: Sun 04/08/2019 14:58

I was sitting on the fence myself but my confidence of 50/50 is more like 90/10 nothing will happen for the city south now. I really cant see anything exciting or unexpected happening. Ill eat my hat if it did!
Roll on spring

Not even this far north is anything going to come of it.

Ice Maiden · Unread post by **Ice Maiden** » Sun 04/08/2019 15:42

Temperature has dropped quickly over the last hour in Dunedin 4.2C now and clouded over after a bright but cool day. Light small hail shower passing through currently.

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Sun 04/08/2019 15:50

snowchaser01 wrote: Sun 04/08/2019 14:42 Some slight shower activity showing in South Canterbury atm...

Cloud seems to be thickening up as I look towards the south

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sun 04/08/2019 15:52

Got that feel about it

snowykiwi · Unread post by **snowykiwi** » Sun 04/08/2019 15:57

Temperature in our back yard near the house with the sun out was a nice mild 23 degrees (completely sheltered area). That was prior to 3pm. Now it’s quite cold and temperature plummeted to 10 degrees.

talbotmj15 · Unread post by **talbotmj15** » Sun 04/08/2019 16:03

Screenshot_20190804-160018_Chrome.jpg

Have you ever seen every road on a MS road snow warning at the same time. Lol. About as rare as the westcoast getting sea level snow!

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sun 04/08/2019 16:06

I think the showers deloping in South Canty are convective showers. MS have this mentioned on their thunderstorm outlook. Any showers that develop are likely to drop snow to low levels with small hail and strong SW wind gusts...

thunderstormOutlookImage.png

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Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

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