Hurricane Dorian

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 28/08/2019 15:10

Currently Tropical storm Dorian is nearing Puerto Rico. Almost all models now have Dorian becoming a hurricane south east of Florida this weekend. Intensity of projections are ranging from cat 1 to cat 4 (U.S scale) with a direct hit on Florida becoming likely on Monday NZT. More to come …

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 28/08/2019 15:23

Cyclone Tracy wrote: Wed 28/08/2019 15:10 Currently Tropical storm Dorian is nearing Puerto Rico. Almost all models now have Dorian becoming a hurricane south east of Florida this weekend. Intensity of projections are ranging from cat 1 to cat 4 (U.S scale) with a direct hit on Florida becoming likely on Monday NZT. More to come …

Trump ready to nuke it?

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 28/08/2019 15:33

Razor wrote: Wed 28/08/2019 15:23
Cyclone Tracy wrote: Wed 28/08/2019 15:10 Currently Tropical storm Dorian is nearing Puerto Rico. Almost all models now have Dorian becoming a hurricane south east of Florida this weekend. Intensity of projections are ranging from cat 1 to cat 4 (U.S scale) with a direct hit on Florida becoming likely on Monday NZT. More to come …
Trump ready to nuke it?

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Thu 29/08/2019 07:11

Forecasts for Dorian are ramping up all the time. NOAA now going for 100kt+ by Sunday/Monday as it nears the east Florida coast.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Thu 29/08/2019 08:47

American hurricane model HWRF simulating Dorian to be a 'donut of destruction' coming into Florida's east coast Sunday U.S time (Monday morning NZT). HWRF 12z has produced an annular tropical cyclone with pressure in the 930's, cat 4 U.S scale.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Fri 30/08/2019 07:33

Hurricane Dorian still expected to be a Cat 4 storm when it hits the Florida coast. Yesterday, there was more of a recurve north in the predicted tracks, but this is still possible. Lots of good maps and charts on this recent tweet:

https://twitter.com/UKWX_/status/1167151318986891269

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 30/08/2019 08:04

Category 6 blog on Weather Underground is always a good read during hurricane events https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Categ ... t-4-Sunday

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Fri 30/08/2019 12:08

The good old ridge throwing a lot of uncertainty on models over the last 36 hours. In times of uncertainty I always like have a close look at the master of picking the strength of the ridge, the UKMO ensemble

One interesting part of the UK suite is the main model tracking towards Miami and into the gulf. Still early days though, so lots of uncertainty remains.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 31/08/2019 12:25

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 01/09/2019 07:29

Sustained winds up to 150mph now, not far off category 5

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sun 01/09/2019 13:05

Latest Hurricane Hunter flight mission got a 941 hPa, around 130 knots, 7 knots off cat 5.

Next 24 hours now becomes fascinating on the models. Americans on the east coast know all too well about the unpredictable left and right turns. At the moment Florida escapes a demolition job according to majority of the models but some models are still eyeing off Miami. Icon for 2 runs in a row weakens the block for a northern Miami onslaught.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sun 01/09/2019 14:48

Next flight mission has just scored a 148 knot near surface winds on either side of the eyewall with pressure around 936 hPa. It seems Dorian has unofficially made the top shelf and is a cat 5. Next National Hurricane center update soon will be interesting.

American hurricane models like the German model Icon, are taking Dorian into Florida. Battle of the models well and truly underway.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sun 01/09/2019 16:04

Very even structure within the eyewall on the latest recon relating to wind speeds. Dorian is starting to move up a gear. Low shear and simmering waters below. Turning into an absolute beast.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 01/09/2019 19:18

Bahamas will get smashed, looks like Florida escapes.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sun 01/09/2019 19:54

NZstorm wrote: Sun 01/09/2019 19:18 Bahamas will get smashed, looks like Florida escapes.

Yep for sure, Bahamas will be devastated. They probably realised it when i-cyclone arrived yesterday and booked into a hotel in Treasure Cay

It's the multi billion dollar question, Florida …..

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Mon 02/09/2019 05:43

As at 11am EST (or 3pm GMT) on 1st September, Hurricane Dorien is rated as a Category 5 hurricane with estimated mean wind speeds of 155kts (180mph). It is approaching the Abaco Islands (of the Bahamas) at this time.

This is not good news for northern parts of the Bahamas. The re-curvature north still persists and it may not now make landfall in Florida. Not an easy one for the forecasters.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Mon 02/09/2019 05:47

Yes, a very strong cat 5 now. Latest fly over mission is bringing in 909 hPa and 160 knots winds. 20 knots above the cat 5 threshold. Becoming one the great Atlantic canes. Only the American hurricane model HWRF picked up this scale of this intensification a few days ago.

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Mon 02/09/2019 07:35

Some tragic video appearing, some of the stuff in the eye shows cars thrown and messed up like an EF4 tornado had got them.
https://twitter.com/p0sitivechange/stat ... 673085441?
Note NWS warning people not to go out in the eye, which is where these videos and photo's are being taken. Round 2 from a different direction is now game on

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 02/09/2019 07:52

Sustained winds of 185mph (295km/h) estimated at landfall in the Bahamas. With gusts of 220mph (350km/h)!

https://t.co/O9hrotTTbS

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Mon 02/09/2019 09:07

Dorian in the last 9 hours has just produced a cycle of 'rapid intensification' or RI. What is so astonishing is that the base started at winds of 130 knots..... now 160 knots

There are now signs of a eyewall replacement cycle underway on radar.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Mon 02/09/2019 10:32

The 'stadium effect' from the cockpit. Taken by Garret Black, Hurricane Hunter over the Bahamas .

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Mon 02/09/2019 11:22

Latest HWRF 18Z run again defies the global models and slams a cat 4 into central Florida. It seems HWFR has Dorian building a ridge and it's own environment, which takes the steering towards Florida.

Reviewing the GEFS, EC and UK ensembles 12Z runs, only around 20 and of 106 models has a Florida landfall. NHC has a nightmare forecasting scenario where the best performed model so far is taking a different path to the main global models....for the moment.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Mon 02/09/2019 15:35

U.S city lights and the 2nd most powerful recorded cane to ever exist in the Atlantic knocking on the door.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Mon 02/09/2019 18:56

Dorian is still riding the Grand Bahama. Most models had the turn already starting. Currently travelling west at 6.42pm NZT

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Mon 02/09/2019 21:25

This blog by Levi Cowan is worth following. Some good vide discussions posted usually at least once a day. Worth watching.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... /#comments

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