General February Weather

[Awhituobs]

the drying trend in the maritime climate parts of OZ lend weight to a drying trend here as well

[David]

Wasn't expecting to get our hottest day of the summer today! My station peaked at 29.8C around 1.30pm, only just beating 29.7C earlier in the month.

[spwill]

I see sheltered Grey Lynn got to 30.6C before the southwesterly arrived early afternoon.

[Cyclone Tracy]

the drying trend in the maritime climate parts of OZ lend weight to a drying trend here as well

According the published BoM data, the OZ rainfall trend is going up. The only area of Australia with an ongoing downward trend over 1mm per decade is the SW corner.


Currently peaking at 28.6c here, quite a few days in a row with over a 20c DP making it feel quite summery.

[Happy Feet]

I had a go at averaging the data "by decade" to see if there was a trend evident from that. Used data from 1920's onwards (as full data set for those years).

Have plotted the Jan-Feb, and Jan-Mar Averages

Ave By Decade.png Incl Yearly.png

Certainly a downward trend occurring.

EDIT: Added an additional graph showing the average Annual rainfall trend (when viewed by decade averages). And Mr Excel indicates a trend of 8.3mm less per decade on average.

I've been working on this speadsheet for a while, wanting to put this dry into historical context. Sorry, I know Waikato is not the only region affected by this dry, but it's where I'm at, and Ruakura research station is one of the better long term records we have in the country.

Did Mr Excel tell you if the 8.3mm less per decade trend was significant ?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RNcU0l ... sp=sharing

Alarming how many of the lowest Jan+Feb+March totals have occurred since 2008.
This year must be odds on at this stage to go straight to number 1 for the driest Jan plus Feb total. Really hope it does not however.

[Happy Feet]

Don't know what happened with that reply. I was asking if Mr Excel told you whether the 8.3mm less per decade trend was significant? But it got lost in the text .

[Happy Feet]

We have had on and off showers and rain for the past hour or so near Kaikohe - about 1.5mm so far. Its not much but very welcome.

[Orion]

Today I heard the first cicadas for me this summer, mid-afternoon near Baring Square West

[tornado]

had some rain here early this morning 0.78 mm here. saturday still looks good

[Cyclone Tracy]

Locally ,the last 13 months is easily the driest period recorded dating back to 2001. Still stuck on 798mm since 1st Jan 2019.

Next milestone locally is the 2013 record which is the driest start to the calendar year. 2013 by the end of February was 18.4mm, currently only on 9.4mm. Its going to be a close call based on current modelling.

[tornado]

according to weatherwatch nz on twitter a small isolated downpour formed in west auckland. i saw some big clouds looking that way.

[NZstorm]

Auckland had a drought and water crisis roughly 25 years ago and that led to the development of a pipeline from the Waikato river which gives us some resilience now. I doubt Auckland can run out of water.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A generally cloudy day here with the temperature maximizing out @ 22C.
Nice thick cloud forms over the 4 Peaks Hill range, early this evening, with cloud shapes lining up to the shapes of the range.
Sorry, I didn't have my camera with me.

[treetop]

some storms east of Rotorua today. A bit dissapointing considering the humidity and temps

[Awhituobs]

@cyclone tracy
there was a map of OZ showing the decade rain trends linked above
instead of just looking at the graph of the whole country
as the trend is not uniform...that map shows maritime climate OZ is drying (but tropical OZ is not)

[NZstorm]

Saturdays rainfall will be spotty and central Auckland probably getting very little. Its convective so some places can do well and others not.

March is typically the most boring month of the year for Auckland with not much happening. April is a month that can come to life with events.

[David]

Saturdays rainfall will be spotty and central Auckland probably getting very little. Its convective so some places can do well and others not.

GFS showing just 3mm for here. With Saturday looking like the only rain day during the month, my record for driest month may well be broken again...

[tornado]

i will watch that front on saturday. the thing is i am in south auckland which could get some decent rain

[Awhituobs]

we need the rain for our water tank for house water...running on the smell of an oily rag here now..short showers etc

[spwill]

Next week looks dry and sunny for Auckland so Saturday is the day, we need good rain on Saturday.

Hopefully we don't have to wait for the seasonal change in April for meaningful rain.

[tornado]

i remember the first good rain last year was around april when we had convergance thunderstorms forming around auckland. i think that was around easter and then it started to get intresting after that.

[Awhituobs]

the models shows the taman sea lows are more favourable in march?

[Cyclone Tracy]

@cyclone tracy
there was a map of OZ showing the decade rain trends linked above
instead of just looking at the graph of the whole country
as the trend is not uniform...that map shows maritime climate OZ is drying (but tropical OZ is not)

Please refer, cheers https://www.weatherforum.nz/phpBB3/view ... 54#p190054

[Richard]

I quite like this dry warm weather we've had here this year, had 12 days with 30 deg plus is ideal weather for my Camote/ Kumara breeding project for which have grown really well since after the cold early summer.

[David]

Looks like 30C possible again here today.