General July Weather

[spwill]

Southern ski fields look to be having a good season this year with reasonable natural snow cover, plenty of cold air for snow making, no spell of warm wet weather yet however there is milder northerly flow in the outlook.

[David]

Seem to have some anticyclonic gloom here, overcast currently with pressure at 1034

[Richard]

Southern ski fields look to be having a good season this year with reasonable natural snow cover, plenty of cold air for snow making, no spell of warm wet weather yet however there is milder northerly flow in the outlook.

Not so for most of the Canterbury fields, not likely to open in July. Climate change is going to force any of the ski fields without snow making capabilities to go under.

[Razor]

Southern ski fields look to be having a good season this year with reasonable natural snow cover, plenty of cold air for snow making, no spell of warm wet weather yet however there is milder northerly flow in the outlook.

Not so for most of the Canterbury fields, not likely to open in July. Climate change is going to force any of the ski fields without snow making capabilities to go under.

Agreed, its starting to look disastrous this year for most of the Canterbury fields, distinct thinking than some of them won't open at all the rate things are going

[Awhituobs]

maybe a weak La Nina might mean a better chance of a tasman low crossing the SI and a warm advection snow setup in Canterbury in August sometime?

[spwill]

I see Mt Hutt has 71-135cm base, all lifts open. Dobson is fully open on a smaller base of 30-68cm. Ohau, Round Hill and Porters are open

[spwill]

maybe a weak La Nina might mean a better chance of a tasman low crossing the SI and a warm advection snow setup in Canterbury in August sometime?

The ingredients for warm advection snow setup have been there this Winter but not come together but still a chance for that next couple of months.

[TonyT]

Agreed, its starting to look disastrous this year for most of the Canterbury fields, distinct thinking than some of them won't open at all the rate things are going

There are many potential reasons for this other than weather though - the ones not currently open are generally smaller fields which will be the first to suffer in an economic downturn. They may have looked at their finances and decided that not opening is the best option in the present circumstances. All fields will have had great difficulty in getting their usual seasonal staff in from overseas this season.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Upper trough now interacting off the Queensland coast with moist rich air from the southern area of the Coral sea. It's kicking off a tropical disturbance that will create twin surface lows that heads SE into the Northern Tasman from tomorrow. 1st low heads towards the SI, 2nd low towards the upper NI on the weekend. Models have had a horrid couple months trying to project the mesoscale impacts of these Tasman lows on NZ, just ask Northland residences. This will probably be no different.

[JP.]

I see Mt Hutt has 71-135cm base, all lifts open. Dobson is fully open on a smaller base of 30-68cm. Ohau, Round Hill and Porters are open

Over the last 9 years just over 2M base at Mt Hutt is average. Its normally peak snow time between August and September so it should get better seasonally. To me personally it almost feels like winter is coming to an end. But I have been fooled before like August 1992 haha

[spwill]

Month to date rainfall, South Canterbury having much lower rainfall than normal for July.

[Cyclone Tracy]

The SAM (AAO) index is heading back into positive territory and peak winter is starting to hit the Antarctic continent. There are going to be decent cold snaps heading north into the mid latitudes before the end of the astronomical winter when the polar vortex weakens.

[David]

Month to date rainfall, South Canterbury having much lower rainfall than normal for July.

I'm on 58% of normal for July in Howick, with nothing forecast for the rest of the month either. Last thing we need in a drought year.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Month to date rainfall, South Canterbury having much lower rainfall than normal for July.

Not too sure on this.
Only 11.9mm so far for this month.
Only been here since 2017, so don't know what rainfall averages are .
We did get 190.5mm in 2017 when our street flooded.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

After a frosty start it was a fine day but with increasing high cloud from the west, especially from mid-afternoon.
Today's maximum was 12.2C. Not much wind.

[Awhituobs]

151mm here for July, which is normal
Year to date now 637 for me, which is like 100mm than same time last year

[David]

151mm here for July, which is normal
Year to date now 637 for me, which is like 100mm than same time last year

I think the lack of decent N/NE systems and more showery weather from the W certainly favours better rain totals in the west, as showers typically have more "oomph" as they come onto the coastline. My yearly total is 105mm below this point last year.

[Awhituobs]

we also have caught rain bands that have moved down the coast line here in NW flows that you missed out on altogether

[tornado]

This weather pattern is very la nina like alright. i reakon it needs to be confirmed soon. as mentioned in la nina thread. dry perieds during winter. that is whats happening now. we do still get rain though. but also been mentioned out storms chances are being ruined.

[Dean.]

Tony mentioned a mid August cold snap in his online briefings a couple of weeks ago...

[TonyT]

Tony mentioned a mid August cold snap in his online briefings a couple of weeks ago...

Its appearing in the end of the 10 day model runs currently. I don't think it will come to much. Another in the last week of August, but also probably not major.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A day of an extensive also-status layer with hardly any wind.
Today's maximum was 11.2C.
With this intense anticyclone to the east of us, looks like this weather will continue for a couple of days.
Some light rain early this morning resulting a trace in the rain-gauge.

[JP.]

A crazy overnight low of 9c here in Christchurch, heading for 15c today. Very nice change to wake up to at the end of July. Really feels like winter's grip is relenting.

[Richard]

A crazy overnight low of 9c here in Christchurch, heading for 15c today. Very nice change to wake up to at the end of July. Really feels like winter's grip is relenting.

Last two winters its been the end of July when there's been that switch to spring like. If we get through this winter with no snow on the ground that will make five years in a row, at 243 masl the Amuri basin every year had snow, most years more than once, climate change will mean snow as going to become a rare event. Hasnt been a hard frost since 2012.

[tornado]

when will these highs go away. its stopping the rain that was supposed to come in this weekend according to models. disappointing thunder season for us this year very la nina alright.