New Year Thunderstorms

[snowstormwatcher]

Can hear Thunder in the distance here now and it's starting to rain again.

[Awhituobs]

We only had 1 quick shower in the morning
But we have better chances tomorrow here with the NE wind against a sea breeze

[Storm Struck]

This is a supercell just past Geraldine, picked up golf ball hail on the side road continous lightning why isn't this severe warned

[NZstorm]

This is a supercell just past Geraldine, picked up golf ball hail on the side road continous lightning why isn't this severe warned

yes, just been watching a supercell on the radar heading for Timaru.

[Orion]

Just observed a bolt of lightning flickering around in that tower-cloud, plus more diffused lightning within it.

[Awhituobs]

Just seen a video of nasty hail storm in geraldine on FB

[David]

Just over 60mm here today - the most rain in one day for my station since 89mm on 15 Jul 2018.

[darcyplumb]

How’s the rotation on that Timaru storm? Looks like a good inflow notch on radar. I can’t believe it’s not severe warned!

[Powermad]

Just seen a video of nasty hail storm in geraldine on FB

We're inside it

[snowstormwatcher]

Picked up 10mm here in 1 hour from that cell, No Hail Thankfully.

[Tornado Tim]

Significant Hail coming from that Supercell. 60dBz+ echo's getting returned back. Does not show well on the MS Website, so here is another clearer look for people.

[darcyplumb]

Significant Hail coming from that Supercell. 60dBz+ echo's getting returned back. Does not show well on the MS Website, so here is another clearer look for people.

Any thoughts as to why it’s not severe warned?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Wow. what a day. Feel Exhausted.
What looked like nothing much would happen, it turned out to be a boomer of a day.
Lightning is still flashing away in a cloud way to the SE of us. The cloud itself doesn't look all that spectacular but there is lots of lightning flashing away within it, like a Chinese lantern.
The squall with the hail moved through about 8pm this evening but the hail was only the size of small marbles so we were lucky.
Took lots of photos betwixt storms which I'll post later.

[Tornado Tim]

Any thoughts as to why it’s not severe warned?

Radar estimation of hail size is probably indicating hail is less than 20mm in diameter. (the threshold for the Hail classification of a Severe Thunderstorm)
Severe Convection Meteorologists will respond if they have a direct report of Severe Weather (when weather is active, they may not have time to track this forum).

So the best way is to contact the Severe Weather Desk at Metservice and report severe conditions as they happen.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Some photos today of the skies betwixt thundersrorms.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

more photos

[mikestormchaser]

What a day/ night that turned out to be! I chased with Andrew, aaron natalie and jase. The supercell spawned from mt peel and tracked into the convergence zone the GFS favored in the evening. ( geraldine/ timaru)

Constant lightning every couple of seconds with golf balls pounding the plains late evening about 8 30pm driving through the geraldine area. ( would of been isolated severe hail) however this cell kept going for hours down the coast before finally dieing at 11 30ish pm near oamaru.
Andrew and i decided to meet back up with the others in timaru at 11pm for a maccas feed and a de brief of the days action. An absolute beast of a storm!
Here are the photos of the hail and night lightning.
When the Canterbury plains turns it on, you cant beat the thunderstorm days in NZ

[NZstorm]

Last night's Canterbury set up is what we can get over the west of the North Island in the winter season. Cold air/upper-level jet undercut by subtropical moisture.

Looks like today's convergence for the upper North Island is further west than yesterday. 21mm here yesterday, hoping for that gain today!

[NZstorm]

I can’t believe it’s not severe warned!

Not sure how many people work at Met Service on the evening shift. No one was watching the radar.

[Brassnz]

We missed out yesterday - only 0.2mm rain. Hopefully the Hunua dams scored a decent top-up, and perhaps we may get our turn in the Waitakeres today...?

[Nev]

I see Whenuapai recorded 30.3mm in the hour to 8pm yesterday.
But yes, very hit and miss yesterday; just 5.5mm here.

Here's MS's latest update for today:

MetService Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 8:57am Sunday 3 Jan 2021
Valid to Midnight Sunday 3 Jan 2021

A slow moving trough affects the eastern Bay of Plenty this morning and afternoon bringing showers and a moderate risk of localised downpours with rain rates of 25 to 40 mm/h, or possibly more. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH is in force for this area.

For the remainder of the North Island, sea breeze convergences and daytime heating will produce scattered showers and a low risk of thunderstorms from around late morning through many areas. A broad moderate risk of thunderstorms covers many areas from Northland to the central and southern parts of the North Island as indicated on the chart, with a low risk for surrounding areas. Any thunderstorms that develop are likely to produce heavy rain (10-25 mm/h) and possibly hail 10 to 20 mm in diameter. Additionally, there is a moderate risk that some of these thunderstorms could become severe, delivering localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH is now in force.

For the South Island, a low and associated cold air aloft drift eastwards across the South Island today bringing showers and broad low risk of thunderstorms to many areas. However, the risk is considered moderate for Canterbury, Otago and inland Southland. Any thunderstorms that occur are likely to produce heavy rain (10-25 mm/h) and hail 10 to 20 mm in diameter. Additionally, there is a moderate risk that some of these thunderstorms may become SEVERE, delivering localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h, with large hail accumulations in eastern Otago, and possibly hail larger than 20 mm in diameter in South Canterbury. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH is now in force for these areas.

MetService T-storm Outlook Map for Jan 03.png

[mikestormchaser]

The set up today isnt as juicy as yesterday but there is still a chance from north otago up the coastline again

Thinking if anything it will be mt peel out towards the coast again if anything.

[spwill]

Lack of sunshine/heating in Waikato yesterday affected the quality of the storms. I'll stay in Auckland today and hope for enough sunny weather for a show to happen.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Ended up with 24mm yesterday. Currently the air is thick, a light north easterly 21.5c with a 20c DP and breaks of sun.

[KiwiWeather]

Just seen a video of nasty hail storm in geraldine on FB

We're inside it

LOL and a fantastic pic. Sounds like you guys had some fun out there.