Upper NI low 6-8 June

[Cyclone Tracy]

I think this might deserve its own thread. Lots of moisture wrapping into the surface cut off low which will could see rainfall totals upgrade rather quickly if the low stalls with converging ne to easterly winds. Some models producing areas of 200 to 300mm on the 12z and 18z runs today.

First heavy rain watch now in place for Northland.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Access G and EC 12z runs starting to lock onto an easterly fed water bomb peaking on the eastern side of the Coromandel ranges.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Plenty of moisture currently wrapping around in the mid levels to east side of the developing low. I see MetService now have 3 warnings and watches in place for the upper NI including heavy rain watch for parts of Auckland.

[David]

I see GFS has dialled back the rain numbers here for the next few days. Now showing around 35mm for the event

[Happy Feet]

Its been raining heavily most of the day near Kaikohe. Metservice says nearly 60mm so far today and around another 80mm expected overnight.

[Cyclone Tracy]

NIWA announcing this evening their latest high res model run is projecting 350mm into parts of the Coromandel ranges within the next 48 hours, 180mm into parts of Hunua ranges.

[David]

Only 4mm here today, let's see if tomorrow lives up to expectations a bit better...

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

NIWA announcing this evening their latest high res model run is projecting 350mm into parts of the Coromandel ranges within the next 48 hours, 180mm into parts of Hunua ranges.

Their turn? Mind you the Coromandel Peninsula dose get a lot of rainfall events much more than down here in Canterbury.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Slowly up to 12mm here. From an Auckland water catchment point of view, the good news is Mangatangi Dam is now up to 45mm for the event so far..... GFS, UK & EC yesterday only had 5 to 7mm up to this point of the event on yesterday's 12z run for that area.

Plenty of spots around Northland near or over 100mm now.

[Awhituobs]

looking better on the rain radar for heavier rain today slowly moving in from the NE..yes?

[Cyclone Tracy]

I think it will depend on where that low near Northland moves today. The heaviest rain seems to be south of the occluded front around Northland which will only move south if the low decides to shift again or a new low forms in the Pacific. It certainly looks like this flow will continue another 48 hours.

[David]

Interestingly this morning’s GFS only has around 6mm more for this event here . MS 3 day model similar

[Nev]

29mm here for this event so far.

I see MS's Kaikohe and Kerikeri Aero sites have accumulated 136mm and 118mm respectively to 9am this morn.

[David]

GFS could be right, precip seems to be fizzing out here.

[Nev]

Whangarei Aero's event total now just over 100mm and Kaikohe over 150mm.

Up to 33mm here so far...

[Cyclone Tracy]

I see a couple of PWS's in Northland (Hukerenui, Kerikeri) now over 180mm for the last 36 hours. Probably a bit more to come as well.

Locally about 20mm, that more easterly flow is being shredded by the Coromandel ranges. Good to see Mangatangi Dam scoring 66mm so far.

[spwill]

Some mostly light rain here across the period and little in the way of wind, mild nights. Some brighter weather this afternoon, edit, sun out now.

[Happy Feet]

Starting to brighten up near Kaikohe - some sunshine coming through the clouds and the gusty wind has dropped. We haven't seen any flooding other than some water sitting in paddocks, although the river was high. My daughter came back from night shift in Kawakawa early this morning a said river levels are higher over that way, but still no road flooding. I have heard of fences being blown down in Kaikohe overnight. The wind was fairly extreme and kept me awake. I think we will have had well over 150mm for the event.

[Nev]

MS currently have 189mm for Kaikohe since Saturday night.
Kerikeri Aero also on 156mm and Whangarei Aero 122mm.

41mm here so far...

[Awhituobs]

what were the windspeed recorded in the far north, re Happy Feet's reports?

[Nev]

Here's some MS max gusts for Sunday's NE'ers and this morning's SE'ers:

MetService Max NE Gusts (km/h) on June 6th
102 .. Cape Reinga
96 ... Purerua
83 ... Kaikohe
78 ... Kerikeri Airport
72 ... Whangarei Airport
65 ... Kaitaia Airport

MetService Max SE Gusts (km/h) on June 8th (am)
87 ... Cape Reinga
83 ... Purerua
78 ... Whangarei Airport
65 ... Kaitaia Airport
63 ... Kerikeri Airport
61 ... Kaikohe

https://twitter.com/MetService/status/1 ... 7883901953

Edit Update: Note that the Kerikeri and Kaikohe max gusts shown on MS's graphic above as occuring after midnight on Tuesday 8th were actually from the day before.

[Awhituobs]

those speeds are nothing unusual
maybe there was some isolated funneling through and around hills in places

[Nev]

MS's Kaikohe AWS is a couple of kms SE of the township and near the foothills, so it's probably also more sheltered from SE'ers than other areas of Kaikohe?