End of June cold shot.

[Lawrence]

Mammatus clouds have formed to the east now.
Clear blue and sunny now.

[tich]

Cleared up a little in Akaroa, after frequent showers, some with bits of small hail. Dusting of snow visible above about 400m.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Nothing much here in Geraldine.
Skies looked dark to the south later this morning but remained rather coastal in it's NE movement.
No thunder heard although I did here a sferic on the radio.
Hardly any rain, just the occasional spits.
All cleared away after noon to the NE and now it is a lovely blue dome day, except there is a rather cold SW wind blowing.

[Bradley]

Canterbury Weather updates saying there was snow in the city in the last few hours?

[Tracy Herbert]

Interesting drive from Methven back down to Rakaia. At the Barrhill Village the hail was still on the road yet either side of the village there was no hail. Next part of hail was after the Lavington dip. Sunny weather from Rakaia through to Christchurch where the sun is still shining.

[talbotmj15]

I cant see any frosts for the plains in any forecasts. Does anyone see -2 frosts in the next week on the plains?

[mikestormchaser]

Latest 00z gfs run still wants to put that risk of snow in chch. It will be touch and go! Any moisture that falls should be sleet or snow anyway.

[Chris W]

Looking darker over the peninsula on the drive home, clear and calm in Lyttelton but starting to feel chilly.

[TonyT]

18Z ensemble run has 18 out of 50, so 36% risk of snow on the ground for Chch. Thats the highest in the last 10 days.

(For comparison, the 0Z GFS ensemble has 29 out of 30 members showing snow on the ground for Chch, so 96% likely(!!); the Canadian ensemble just 1 of 20, so 5% probability).

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I cant see any frosts for the plains in any forecasts. Does anyone see -2 frosts in the next week on the plains?

Definitely here, once the anticyclone kicks in following this polar blast.

[TonyT]

I cant see any frosts for the plains in any forecasts. Does anyone see -2 frosts in the next week on the plains?

Inland on Wednesday night, generally Thursday through Saturday nights.

[mikestormchaser]

18Z ensemble run has 18 out of 50, so 36% risk of snow on the ground for Chch. Thats the highest in the last 10 days.

(For comparison, the 0Z GFS ensemble has 29 out of 30 members showing snow on the ground for Chch, so 96% likely(!!); the Canadian ensemble just 1 of 20, so 5% probability).

Yes I'm thinking either there's going to be a couple cm in coastal chch or the models are teasing us and the precip stays alot more east then it's leading on.
I guess just need to get up from 3am with a bag of popcorn and just watch what mother nature will do best

[snowchaser01]

I haven't had a feeling like this since 2012... it has that feel to it in my opinion.
GFS has a 518thk, -8 850mb and -3 925mb temps respectively... to me it has sea level written all over it.

[mikestormchaser]

I haven't had a feeling like this since 2012... it has that feel to it in my opinion.
GFS has a 518thk, -8 850mb and -3 925mb temps respectively... to me it has sea level written all over it.

2012 was warm advective, tomorrow is just cold advection so wouldn't be anything like 2012 but yes a chance of a dusting accumulating.

Razor you will be in a perfect spot up near cracroft cashmere. You may see a good 5cm down to 200m

[Cyclone Tracy]

Brighton beach webcam south west of Dunedin is suggesting sea level fat flakes atm. Current temp nearby is 1c with a 0c dew point.

[snowchaser01]

I notice MS now mentioning near sea level snow for Christchurch AND the Canterbury Plains tomorrow... crazy

[Awhituobs]

you can see the flow starting to tend more southerly now on the rain radar
so the showers will start to run up the coast more soon (i.e coming hours) and into Canterbury

[snowchaser01]

you can see the flow starting to tend more southerly now in the rain radar
so the showers will start to run up the coast more soon (i.e coming hours) and into Canterbury

Yes agreed, action stations!!

[snowchaser01]

Area: Canterbury Plains north of Rakaia River, including Banks Peninsula, and Kaikoura south of Clarence River
Valid: 13 hours from 2:00am to 3:00pm Tuesday
Forecast: Snow is expected to lower to near sea level, and may be heavy at times. Snow accumulations may approach warning criteria above 200 metres. Please note: The Watch area has been extended to cover Canterbury Plains north of Rakaia River and Kaikoura south of Clarence River.

[MoorfNZ]

Area: Canterbury Plains north of Rakaia River, including Banks Peninsula, and Kaikoura south of Clarence River
Valid: 13 hours from 2:00am to 3:00pm Tuesday
Forecast: Snow is expected to lower to near sea level, and may be heavy at times. Snow accumulations may approach warning criteria above 200 metres. Please note: The Watch area has been extended to cover Canterbury Plains north of Rakaia River and Kaikoura south of Clarence River.

So are we now expecting snow to reach as far inland as here (Sheffield 300asl)? The locals seem to think we will get nothing.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Impressive southern fetch on the latest IR. The surface low needs to move NE in the next 6 hours to give Christchurch the SSW polar slingshot, if it moves ENE it will go to a SW flow.

[Awhituobs]

Euro model has it going enough SSW by 3am
and that sure is an impressive fetch, all the way from the ice sheet

3am.png

[snowchaser01]

This could have snuck up on us big time... bring on midnight!

[Chris W]

Wind picking up in the port, it's cold outside.

[Bradley]

I can’t see places as far inland as Darfield approaching warning criteria for snow as the metservice updated warning alleges