Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2021-22

[Blowy]

SI....

[Blowy]

Comin for you Richard....

[Nev]

Seth downgraded to Cat 1 this arvo. Max winds 45 knots, with central pressure at 988 hPa.

Some recent increase in convection, albeit slightly sheared to the south of the LLCC. May be some further intensification overnight tonight, before becoming more subtropical tomorrow and completing extratropical transition by Monday. Beyond that, 'there is considerable spread of track possibilities with the general consensus being a drift towards the eastern Australian coastline around mid next week'.

[Blowy]

Models slowly aligning for SI hit... 10~11th?

[Nev]

Ex-TC Seth was downgraded to a sub-tropical low by the BoM this evening (JTWC issued their final warning late yesterday).

[TonyT]

Models slowly aligning for SI hit... 10~11th?

Do you understand what you these graphics are? What they show?

Each coloured line on this graph is one run of the ensemble. Out of 30 runs, one line crosses the South Island. So thats a a 1 in 30 or 4% chance of a "SI hit". If you use this dataset as your guidance, its telling you this is 96% likely NOT to be a SI hit.

The latest ECMF ensemble is similar, and shows it either fizzling out in the far western Tasman, or making a weak landfall somewhere around the Queensland/NSW state border.

ecmwf-bufr-04p-1641124800-1124800.png

[Blowy]

Well let's see... those that worship at the big building alter of Kelburn... may have egg on face?

[darcyplumb]

Also a system developing in the north coral sea which will eventually be TC Tiffany. http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20023.html

[Nev]

^ Yes, possibly named on Monday or Tuesday before it crosses Cape York Peninsula into the Gulf of Carpentaria...

[TonyT]

Minor geomagnetic storm currently underway. Lets see if we get a spin-up in the South Pacific (specifically the Coral sea) in 7-10 days time.

[Awhituobs]

but we already have 2 spin ups
with no obvious space weather influence?

[TonyT]

but we already have 2 spin ups
with no obvious space weather influence?

Indeed, I had noticed The atmosphere is a wonderful and complicated thing.Would you like me to label my post "science experiment" so its purpose is clearer?

[darcyplumb]

TC Tiffany is named after looking impressive on satellite for most of this afternoon. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

[Nev]

For posterity...

[darcyplumb]

For posterity...

It will get interesting when it hits the Gulf of Carpentaria. As I’m sure you know, it’s notorious for producing over achieving cyclones.

[Nev]

Tiffany was upgraded to Cat 2 overnight.

[Nev]

Mod Note: See separate thread for TC Cody named by the Fiji Met today.

[tgsnoopy]

Tiffany was upgraded to Cat 2 overnight.

Just need it to track a lil North and king hit Nhulunbuy . Hopefully will satisfy Cams severe weather needs for a while.

[Nev]

Tiffany made landfall earlier today as she crosses Cape York Peninsular...

[Nev]

The BoM has a medium chance of the developing low south of P.N.G. becoming a TC in the next few days. JTWC this evening also upgraded its chances of becoming a TC in the next 24 hrs to medium. Good persistent deep convection today slightly displaced to the north of its LLCC by moderate shear, SST's around 30-31C. Something to keep an eye on...

[Nev]

JTWC issued a TC Formation Alert overnight, the BoM not quite so optimistic...

[Nev]

JTWC have just upgraded our Coral Sea low to a TC (based on 1-minute max winds)...

[Nev]

Our tropical low looking more disorganised this morning. BoM never did recognise it as a TC and last night issued its final advisory for the area. JTWC still optimistic of a little more further development.

[Nev]

Mod Note: See separate thread for TC Dovi named by Fiji Met today.

[Blowy]

Early March could be interesting....