Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 04/07/2022 14:33

Thought I'd start a new thread with some interesting modelling suggesting action weather "accross the motu" in the coming week.

It is hard not to see some big snow somewhere in the mix

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 05/07/2022 09:35

Metservice long range...

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 06/07/2022 09:39

Warm advection snow inland on Thursday night into Friday? Thoughts?

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Wed 06/07/2022 14:01

Razor wrote: Wed 06/07/2022 09:39 Warm advection snow inland on Thursday night into Friday? Thoughts?

Yes, its been in the guidance for many days, but only at higher levels.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 06/07/2022 18:44

Perhaps some locally low snow levels for Mackenzie Basin through to Wanaka /Qtwn area early Friday? GFS shows warming through the day. Colder air coming back in Sat.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Thu 07/07/2022 08:29

Going to be in Westport Friday afternoon till Saturday morning, looking like we might be in the thunder fun zone there.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 07/07/2022 20:05

Cold temperatures for inland South Canterbury and Otago today, maximums around 2-3C for Alexandra, Qtwn, Wanaka, Omarama and Twizel.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 07/07/2022 23:12

spwill wrote: Thu 07/07/2022 20:05 Cold temperatures for inland South Canterbury and Otago today, maximums around 2-3C for Alexandra, Qtwn, Wanaka, Omarama and Twizel.

Near or only just above freezing in those areas on latest Metservice obs. Should easily turn to snow there once significant precipitation arrives. (looks like drizzle on radar over central South island - light drizzle in Chch this evening)

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Fri 08/07/2022 04:50

Snow falling and settling in Alexandra now.

Awhituobs · Unread post by **Awhituobs** » Fri 08/07/2022 07:12

another nearly 40mm (on top of the 40mm from the last system) here
another warm night here too (15c here currently)

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 08/07/2022 07:48

Queenstown currently on 5C with rain, Alexandra 0C with snow.

30mm here overnight

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 08/07/2022 08:24

Getting wet now with just on 400mm in the past 6 weeks.

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wembley · Unread post by **wembley** » Fri 08/07/2022 09:13

Metservice said yesterday snow would fall higher up not down to 200m

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Fri 08/07/2022 09:21

wembley wrote: Fri 08/07/2022 09:13 Metservice said yesterday snow would fall higher up not down to 200m

Warm advection snow can be difficult to forecast. The slightest change in the surface temperature can make a big difference.

Awhituobs · Unread post by **Awhituobs** » Fri 08/07/2022 10:21

nearly 17c here with this Northerly flow
amazing
I see its nearly 19c in the far north currently
with a high of 20c forecasted for Whangarei

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 08/07/2022 10:23

Some wet snow at Cromwell at 212m

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 08/07/2022 12:01

17C dew point here in July is bonkers. Up to 19.1 air temp today.

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darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Fri 08/07/2022 12:03

I’d love to know people’s thoughts on the next low due early next week. The click baiters are reporting over 100mm for the Canterbury plains and coast Monday night into Tuesday. It’s hard not to be alarmed when you see information like that.

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 08/07/2022 12:29

24mm on my weather station since 4pm until this morning, 30mm in the manual gauge

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 08/07/2022 12:36

darcyplumb wrote: Fri 08/07/2022 12:03 I’d love to know people’s thoughts on the next low due early next week. The click baiters are reporting over 100mm for the Canterbury plains and coast Monday night into Tuesday. It’s hard not to be alarmed when you see information like that.

Its just that this far out- click bait I would think.

The model ranges seem to be more like 20-50mm on Tuesday at this early juncture. Wind looks quite interesting. I'm keeping an eye on it with on of my kids planning a tramp to Rod Donald Hut that day.

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 08/07/2022 12:47

Just reached 18.9C. New July record for me, former record being 18.7 in 2014

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Fri 08/07/2022 12:48

Razor wrote: Fri 08/07/2022 12:36
darcyplumb wrote: Fri 08/07/2022 12:03 I’d love to know people’s thoughts on the next low due early next week. The click baiters are reporting over 100mm for the Canterbury plains and coast Monday night into Tuesday. It’s hard not to be alarmed when you see information like that.
Its just that this far out- click bait I would think.

The model ranges seem to be more like 20-50mm on Tuesday at this early juncture. Wind looks quite interesting. I'm keeping an eye on it with on of my kids planning a tramp to Rod Donald Hut that day.

Thanks for the reassurance. I’ll keep an eye on it and see what happens closer to the time.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 08/07/2022 13:15

Think Auckland Aero's previous July record was 19.1C on July 18 last year.

https://twitter.com/MetService/status/1 ... C72fEqAAAA

Awhituobs · Unread post by **Awhituobs** » Fri 08/07/2022 13:56

we got to 19.3 here just before a wind change to the NW
soil temperature now 13.9c!

I see you got to 19.7c David! (and same for Ricky!)

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Fri 08/07/2022 14:09

With a dew point near 18c as well! Also 10cm soil temp is nudging 15c

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