Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Blowy · Unread post by **Blowy** » Sun 12/02/2023 05:57

Very likely that event will be canceled if Napier gets anything like the 317mm Access is predicting for the next 10 days...

shovelopikis · Unread post by **shovelopikis** » Sun 12/02/2023 06:30

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Sat 11/02/2023 23:26
Ash wrote: Sat 11/02/2023 21:33 Yes big numbers for Hawkes Bay as well. 350mm in 24 hours
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Hope this won't put dampers on the Art Deco Festival in Napier what my wife and I are coming up for next WE

We are heading over on Thursday... Not sure if our accomodation will be still standing or floated away given these numbers, but the wind will be a major concern to western regions

... And now it looks like some areas around East Cape are predicting half a metre of rain!!

Ash · Unread post by **Ash** » Sun 12/02/2023 06:30

That would be a big and dissapointing decision. They are really hoping this one goes ahead. It's been a few years since we had a decent art deco festival.

vinodrinker · Unread post by **vinodrinker** » Sun 12/02/2023 07:15

Ash wrote: Sun 12/02/2023 06:30 That would be a big and dissapointing decision. They are really hoping this one goes ahead. It's been a few years since we had a decent art deco festival.

Poor wineries will not be celebrating 2023 as a great vintage. This will be hugely impactful at this time of year

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sun 12/02/2023 07:34

Goodness me. Speechless.

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Sun 12/02/2023 07:41

Razor wrote: Sun 12/02/2023 07:34 Goodness me. Speechless.

Sheesh, I’m a bit the same after seeing that. I really, really hope people have taken the warnings seriously.

Ash · Unread post by **Ash** » Sun 12/02/2023 08:35

The wineries, the orchards- apples- will be wrecked. Yes the amount of rain forecast in 24 hours is worrying. First time I have ever planned for water shortages as I think the water infrastructure, which already struggles in a normal 100mm event, will be completely overwhelmed with this one.

If the forecast holds- and let's face it there has been some real fizzers in the past.

Blowy · Unread post by **Blowy** » Sun 12/02/2023 08:43

A reminder about Bola, some similarities here

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone ... _JxR8iL2LI

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sun 12/02/2023 08:50

harveyt86 wrote: Sat 11/02/2023 22:31 Looking quite concerning. Question. What's the lowest pressure recorded over the upper Noth Island? Looking quite likely we will have something in the 960s on Monday/Tuesday

Might be 962.9 hPa at Cape Reinga on July 26, 2008, although Cape Reinga also recorded around 963 hPa from Ex-TC Ida on March 15, 1959.

harleyb · Unread post by **harleyb** » Sun 12/02/2023 09:14

Razor wrote: Sun 12/02/2023 07:34 Goodness me. Speechless.

Wow, just wow. It's one thing to see a model output from a week out, quite another to see it from 48 hours. This is starting to look really bad.

I hope folk in the firing line have got themselves prepared as best they can... this one has been very well signalled in advance by the models.

Just as we look back at Cyclone Bola as one of those "once in a generation" storms, maybe we end up remembering this one in a similar way.

As an aside, we have a research catchment in northern Wairarapa where we collect steam samples during floods for sediment analysis, and we have been looking at going out on Tuesday to sample this event. But looking at the forecast now, I'm not quite so sure about doing this one...

RODALCO · Unread post by **RODALCO** » Sun 12/02/2023 10:18

2023-02-12_09-16-22.jpg

Just looked at Ventusky predicted route doesn't look too good.

TC Gabrielle is moving East but then lowering South to have the eye over the Hauraki Gulf more or less, on Tuesday 14 February.
It is a very slow moving system so it will be very wet.

Cormandel, Gisborne, Napier will be in for a lot of bad weather to come.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sun 12/02/2023 10:19

Auckland now under the rare ‘red’ heavy rain and strong wind warning

harveyt86 · Unread post by **harveyt86** » Sun 12/02/2023 10:28

Wow. I keep thinking, especially after the models started hinting east, that this one would head away and forecasts would improve. Now it's looking even worse. Looking like it could be really really bad.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sun 12/02/2023 11:22

Nev wrote: Sun 12/02/2023 08:50
harveyt86 wrote: Sat 11/02/2023 22:31 Looking quite concerning. Question. What's the lowest pressure recorded over the upper Noth Island? Looking quite likely we will have something in the 960s on Monday/Tuesday
Might be 962.9 hPa at Cape Reinga on July 26, 2008, although Cape Reinga also recorded around 963 hPa from Ex-TC Ida on March 15, 1959.

This one will get close to the record with 964hpa except this time it will only be 100km from the centre of Auckland

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sun 12/02/2023 11:33

Even some of the totals for the east of the SI are looking huge by our standards, GFS going for less amounts at this stage.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Sun 12/02/2023 12:12

GFS 18Z has the Cyclone centre fully over lower Northland.
A more concerning prognostic.

Metservice now using some rarely used and hair raising language:

Metservice wrote: Cyclone Gabrielle has passed Norfolk Island. Gabrielle is moving steadily southeast and is on a track to lie due north of Cape Reinga by midday Sunday, then recurve to lie near the Outer Hauraki Gulf on Monday

Based on the position and intensity of Gabrielle, this system poses a VERY HIGH risk of extreme, impactful, and unprecedented weather over many regions of the North Island from Sunday to Tuesday

It is important to keep up to date with the latest MetService forecasts in case any changes are made, or further areas are added.

image.png

Demchy · Unread post by **Demchy** » Sun 12/02/2023 12:14

Thank you for posting that upper dymanics chart, Bradly, not looking forward to getting that close to this thing at all.
Are you able to please advise what those dotted red isoganal lines on that chart depict? Is it air pressure at a certain altitude?

I've got a bathtub full of emergency water, an extension lead hanging out of my EV car to power my fridge and a large hole cut in my fence to let through excess stormwater runoff. Oh, and plenty of food in the house so I think I'm about as prepared as I can be.

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Sun 12/02/2023 12:31

Tornado Tim wrote: Sun 12/02/2023 12:12 GFS 18Z has the Cyclone centre fully over lower Northland.
A more concerning prognostic.

Metservice now using some rarely used and hair raising language:
Metservice wrote: Cyclone Gabrielle has passed Norfolk Island. Gabrielle is moving steadily southeast and is on a track to lie due north of Cape Reinga by midday Sunday, then recurve to lie near the Outer Hauraki Gulf on Monday

Based on the position and intensity of Gabrielle, this system poses a VERY HIGH risk of extreme, impactful, and unprecedented weather over many regions of the North Island from Sunday to Tuesday

It is important to keep up to date with the latest MetService forecasts in case any changes are made, or further areas are added.
image.png

I don’t recall ever seeing language like that from MS.

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Sun 12/02/2023 12:52

Matt Watson (the fisherman) lives in Northland on the water and is posting regular updates on his Facebook page. Worth a look. The swell is crazy, so is the wind. He’s also reporting multiple waterspouts that are making it to shore.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 12/02/2023 13:40

Hauraki Gulf marine warning has "Southeast 45 knots gusting 55 knots" from this afternoon to tomorrow morning. Have seen higher forecasts than this before with systems not as deep as Gabrielle. Perhaps Coromandel will be sheltering us from the worst

harveyt86 · Unread post by **harveyt86** » Sun 12/02/2023 13:47

Looking like possible worst case scenario. Swinging in while deepening then stalling.. Though I do think wind wise Auckland might end up being better off the closer the centre comes? Wherever those southerlies on the back side set up is really going to cop it..

RODALCO · Unread post by **RODALCO** » Sun 12/02/2023 14:31

The red storm warning alert was just transmitted to our phones about 5 minutes ago.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sun 12/02/2023 15:04

David wrote: Sun 12/02/2023 13:40 Hauraki Gulf marine warning has "Southeast 45 knots gusting 55 knots" from this afternoon to tomorrow morning. Have seen higher forecasts than this before with systems not as deep as Gabrielle. Perhaps Coromandel will be sheltering us from the worst

More like gusting to 70-80 knots out in the Gulf atm. Saw Tiritiri on 143 km/h.

Our first casualty was this 11m Banksia tree. Extremely lucky in the direction it fell though. Could have done some serious damage.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sun 12/02/2023 15:36

I wonder if any rain warnings will be issued for Canterbury in the coming days, as quite a few models point to heavy rain even into Otago.
I see the severe weather outlook has a low confidence from Christchurch northwards.
Quite a wet week in comparison with what it has been like recently anyway.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sun 12/02/2023 15:43

Storm Struck wrote: Sun 12/02/2023 15:36 I wonder if any rain warnings will be issued for Canterbury in the coming days, as quite a few models point to heavy rain even into Otago.
I see the severe weather outlook has a low confidence from Christchurch northwards.
Quite a wet week in comparison with what it has been like recently anyway.

Given how dry we are... any moisture in the wider eastern and southern South Island would be welcomed (within reason of course)

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