Looks like the end of the Golden Weather until... well, the end of next week with the passing of tomorrow's slow moving front.
Back to boring weather and mid-teen temperatures as high pressures lurk around us
Tomorrow could be interesting if the cloud cover could be held at bay, allowing the passing ULT to create development at ground level.
The odds of this happening is like me winning the Powerball Jackpot this weekend.
Last edited by NZ Thunderstorm Soc on Sun 30/10/2005 12:30, edited 1 time in total.
Tomorrow could be interesting if the cloud cover could be held at bay, allowing the passing ULT to create development at ground level.
The odds of this happening is like me winning the Powerball Jackpot this weekend.
Convective activity is much more likely to happen about the inland high country under such situations - here in Chch the onshore flow should mean lower cloud and maybe some drizzle. Tuesday should see a cool or cold southerly change over the South Island, so thunderstorms could be more likely, but all depends on anumber of factors.
Band of rain moving over South Canterbury according to 10am radar. Looks like it's moving slowly, so don't know when it'll reach Chch. It might even have dissipated by then.
Band of rain moving over South Canterbury according to 10am radar. Looks like it's moving slowly, so don't know when it'll reach Chch. It might even have dissipated by then.
It did seem to break up as it reached Chch - only brief patchy falls around the city and Banks Peninsula this afternoon.
Band of rain moving over South Canterbury according to 10am radar. Looks like it's moving slowly, so don't know when it'll reach Chch. It might even have dissipated by then.
It did seem to break up as it reached Chch - only brief patchy falls around the city and Banks Peninsula this afternoon.
JohnGaul
NZTS
Ive been out and about over mid Canterbury today. Few annoying spits/light rain but nothing really dampening the ground.
Dark convergence line not producing much around 5pm (light Ne here) despite dark clouding.
Radar shows most precipitation out to sea or beyond BP although it didn't really look that rainy out there.
It rained in Ashburton.
Yeh it was more further north John the rain this afternoon light rain started about half past 4 stoped about 6pm enough to dampen ground and 1mm of rain out of it .
Inland showers tomorrow esoecailly over NI and maybe even Richmond ranges near Nelson as well chance's of slight thunder in these areas but still our thunder booms in the distance with maybe the fireworks Guyforks next saturday could be a storm afternoon/evening good southerly change coming through but still its a long way out yet.
Cheers
JASON.
Reports from My cousin in Golden Bay this morning of 3 loud Claps of thunder a downpour of rain for about 30 mins and 2 large CG bolt's out at sea.
He said it happend between 6-7am and the Dog was barking half an hour before it hit. I see MS have mentioned about Storm activity on the outlook just off Nelson is expected to peter out soon.
Hmmmm I tap my fingers and cross my toes MS predicts Thunder in Otago tomorrow of moderate risk and low risk here at night as a small cold front clips Otago. Iam not too sure about this one but its worth looking into.
Also NI looks to be very active tomorrow inland storms from Taupo-Northland as well as slight chance today in the Waikato whats it like in oyur neck of woods FOGGY?
Cheers
Jason
Lots of thunder, but not a lot of visible lightning. I think the majority of the flashes are inter-cloud.
Thunderstorm seems to be in the direction of Woodville, from here, but on the western side of the Tararua's. Quite a high base to the storm as well, with little in the way of precipitation falling, at the moment. Thunderstorm seems to be moving in a N direction.
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Unread postby Manukau heads obs »
some quick build ups in a sea breeze convergence here this aftenoon...with bit of rain..
woould have been real good if not so much high cloud and middle layer cloud from the remains of the front...tomorrow might be better if there is less cloud in the morning...
i'mmmmm interesting little ULT this is with these thunderstorm reports coming in.
Despite the high surface pressure, the atmos seems to be a bit unstable.
Very breezy ENE today here in ChCh and an inland thunderstorm risk from MetService for Southland and Otago inland Marlborough for tomorrow ???
Interesting to see what happens?
Models are indicating clearing skies over Cantab tomorrow morning so it should be sunny in the afternoon with light winds. If winds keep light temps should get to 18 degrees maybe 19 in parts of Cantab (the Ashburton plains area for some reason seems to get warmer temp than the area surrounding Chch). Aslong as moisture is the same as today then I don't see why clouds shouldn't begin to go up. Inland areas seem to be the favourite for various reasons but it would be cool if a storm formed closer to home.
Guess we'll hae to wait and see what happens.
There isn't really that nice cold upper air you'd want on a good convincing thunderstorm day(-25 for e.g.) so yeah but here's hoping!
Models are indicating clearing skies over Cantab tomorrow morning so it should be sunny in the afternoon with light winds. If winds keep light temps should get to 18 degrees maybe 19 in parts of Cantab (the Ashburton plains area for some reason seems to get warmer temp than the area surrounding Chch). Aslong as moisture is the same as today then I don't see why clouds shouldn't begin to go up. Inland areas seem to be the favourite for various reasons but it would be cool if a storm formed closer to home.
Guess we'll hae to wait and see what happens.
There isn't really that nice cold upper air you'd want on a good convincing thunderstorm day(-25 for e.g.) so yeah but here's hoping!
JohnGaul
NZTS
i did think of a 1 for tomorrow (inland Canty areas) but I don't think I will bother now.
Looking more thundery in the NI, in the more usual areas
By saying this, I'm not counting out for the South Island to get thunderstorms,We we've got November/December and possibly January to go through. There is a good chance that we will get a good thunderstorm before the end of the thunderstorm potential period.
Quite a bit of cumulus congestus (and towering) in our skies today brought just some light showers, looked thundery for a time.
Annoying high and Sc cloud prevented any stronger updrafts possible and lowered CAPE to around just 50j/kg
Tomorrow does look better with less of a decking of higher cloud, but the most unstable air looks to be heading off over the Urewera Ranges where severe thunderstorms look likely in that direction!
Had Cu here spreading out across the sky in stable mid layer so not a day for heavy showers . Lots of high cloud as well.
Perhaps some convection tomorrow if we get the sun.
Looks like cloudy SW weather here for the week, hopefully a fine day in there some where.
a cloudy day stopped any decent convection happening but it was breaking up as the sun was going down prodiving the cloudis much less than it was 2 day it should b a good storms day notcied that most of the NI is under a moderate change of storms from northland to the central areas
Looks to be low level instability across NZ today so some nice cu building up again with isolated afternoon showers. Isolated thunderstorms look likely over the central North Island ranges.
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Unread postby Manukau heads obs »
a general SW flow arrived here this morning
which will put the cogwash on CB showers in this area, including northland i would say, but central NI areas will be a good place !
interesting little ULT this is 
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