cbm wrote: Fri 19/05/2023 10:08
Having a low <980 HPa cross North Island would normally generate more talk on here and in media, I guess we have had so many storms. Looks as deep as Cyclone Dovi was when it crosses. Hopefully a heap of factors make it not as bad as Dovi was.
Yes, seems like one storm just blends into another lately...
According to GFS and EC, this subtropical low actually bombed 24 hPa and 25 hPa respectively in the 24 hours to 6pm on Thu May 18 NZST. Currently close to 970 hPa.
Akld Aero looks to have bottomed out at about 986 hPa around 6:30am this morning. Hawera currently the lowest at 980 hPa.
Also noticed 120 km/h gusts at Manukau Heads earlier at around 7:30am this morning, otherwise doesn't look too bad elsewhere so far...
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The NW wind starting to get gusty here now but less than 1mm of rain here so far, currently 18C
Some thunderstorm risk is modelled for here on Monday, 500mb temperatures will be around -20C with incoming moisture, something to watch for Monday.
Last edited by spwill on Sat 20/05/2023 12:34, edited 1 time in total.
Nev wrote: Sat 20/05/2023 17:18
Looks like the low's centre is currently crossing Mt Taranaki going by the radar. Hawera got down to about 975 hPa not long ago.
Interesting that it's been blowing it's guts out on the northern side of this low whereas down here we have had no wind to speak of yesterday and today.
Just clagg and light rain/drizzle.
Dismal weather down here today with this low. Hardly any wind and a grey overcast day of clagg with the occasional drizzle or light rain.
11.4C for today and 8mm of light rain or drizzle. Barometer slowly rising from 989hPa, the lowest here for today.
I noticed a lot of purple in the rain radar last night moving east around the Palmy North area last night. I don't remember a WW for the area.
Another day of clagg here today I thought it was supposed to clear ?
TS outlook for tomorrow afternoon/evening looking interesting:
During the afternoon and evening, the low continues to move closer to the North Island and there is a low risk of thunderstorms for most of the North Island and parts of the Tasman District, as shown on the chart.
For southern Manawatu, Horowhenua, Kapiti and northern Wellington, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon, which may bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 20 mm per hour and small hail.
For much of the northern and central part of the North Island, as well as Golden Bay, there is a moderate to high risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, persisting over Northland and Auckland at night. These thunderstorms may bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm per hour and small hail. Gusts of 90 km/h are also possible. However, for Northland and Auckland, gusts of 90 to 110 km/h are possible and there is a low risk that some of the thunderstorms become severe during the afternoon and early evening, producing localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm per hour and a slight chance of a small coastal tornado. In eastern Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne wind gusts could also reach 90 to 110 km/h, and there is a low risk of severe thunderstorms from evening, bringing localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm per hour.
No other areas of severe convection or thunderstorms are expected.
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Some rain overnight and yet another overcast day of clagg and not much wind despite the forecasts saying the cloud would clear and becoming fine and sunny but we have that hope for tomorrow.
Today's maximum only 10.7C with 3.7mm of rain overnight.
I could see lightning out to sea in the west early in the morning, Cb tops were lighting up. Perhaps Waiuku to Raglan got a storm from from the early morning line, around 3-4am.
The overcast and grey skies of which I call clagg, that we have had over the past 3 days, cleared away overnight and this morning and it was good to see the sun again with it becoming a fine sunny day with not much wind. 14.5C for today.
Another fine blue dome day here with not much wind. Mild. Up to 16.5C from the light frost we had this morning.
Some light high cloud to the west late afternoon/evening.
It has been a mild month for NZ.
I see Grey Lynn with an average maximum of 19.2C, ave min 13.2C so far for May with a mild finish to the month coming
Another zone of active thundery weather is currently modelled to cross the upper North Island early next week.
See how this looks in the models on Friday/Saturday
spwill wrote: Wed 24/05/2023 07:31
Another zone of active thundery weather is currently modelled to cross the upper North Island early next week.
See how this looks in the models on Friday/Saturday
Looks possible a total of 300mm will be reached for May
Since Winter last year there has been a crazy amount of NE flow with stormy weather. The trend toward El Nino should change this pattern at some stage.
spwill wrote: Wed 24/05/2023 07:31
It has been a mild month for NZ.
I see Grey Lynn with an average maximum of 19.2C, ave min 13.2C so far for May with a mild finish to the month coming
2016 was Auckland's warmest May, setting records for both its highest May Tmax and Tmin.
However, that Tmin record might be under threat, and its Tmax probably won't be too far behind.
Not a lot of sunshine though.
I thought it was supposed to clear ?