Severe gales 14/15 October

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sat 14/10/2023 09:52

Thewind has certainly arrived in Christchurch. Its playing havoc with kids cricket

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sat 14/10/2023 10:08

Red warning issued .Wind is ramping up here now

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sat 14/10/2023 10:08

Razor wrote: Sat 14/10/2023 09:52 Thewind has certainly arrived in Christchurch. Its playing havoc with kids cricket

Kids cricket canceled here

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 14/10/2023 10:11

Strong gusty NW in town gradually picking up, a few gusts getting over 50 now.
Might be a day of seeing orange voting signs flying through the air

.
That main frontal band is crossing through South Canterbury now, this is where we will see the increase in stronger winds.
Probably for about a 2 hour period.
Wouldn't be surprised to see it get over 100kmh in the city even.
MS have a Red wind warning for us, this a first since they introduced the warning system.

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Sat 14/10/2023 10:15

Dean. wrote: Sat 14/10/2023 10:08 Red warning issued .Wind is ramping up here now

So, was this always the plan from MS? Going back to my post the other day about the Salmon Run. I would like to think red warnings are issued as soon as they know that’s the plan, rather than waiting until the last minute.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sat 14/10/2023 10:18

Metservice has now issued a Red strong wind warning for Canterbury, they must believe things are going to get very hairy later on!!

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sat 14/10/2023 10:50

Given the Red warning from MS thought I'd start a thread. Certainly breezy in Christchurch right now!

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sat 14/10/2023 10:52

Severe Weather Warning
Heavy rain and severe gales expected for parts of central and southern New Zealand

A low moves east across the South Island during Saturday, followed by an active trough on Sunday. Very strong winds and heavy rain associated with these features will affect several areas of the South Island and southern North Island, and Warnings and Watches are in place.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and check for updates and additions to these Watches and Warnings.

Strong Wind Warning - Red
Impact: These winds are expected to produce widespread damage, especially to trees and powerlines and could lift roofs. Transport and power networks are likely to be significantly impacted, with road closures and power outages. Conditions will be hazardous for motorists and there is a danger to life from flying debris and falling trees or branches.

Area: Canterbury High Country

Period: 8hrs from 9am - 5pm Sat, 14 Oct

Forecast: Severe gale northwesterlies gusting 130 km/h in exposed places, but with damaging gusts of 150 km/h late Saturday morning and afternoon. Winds are expected to ease late Saturday afternoon but another period of severe gales is expected from Sunday morning and an Orange Warning is likely to be issued Saturday evening to cover this period.

Area: Canterbury Plains, and Christchurch including Banks Peninsula

Period: 8hrs from 9am - 5pm Sat, 14 Oct

Forecast: Severe gale northwesterlies gusting 120 km/h in exposed places, but with damaging gusts of 140 km/h late Saturday morning and afternoon. Note, another period of strong winds is expected from Sunday morning. A Watch or Orange Warning is likely to be issued Saturday evening, to cover winds during this period.

Heavy Rain Warning - Orange
Impact: Heavy rain may cause streams and rivers to rise rapidly. Surface flooding and slips are also possible and driving conditions may be hazardous.

Area: Westland south of Otira

Period: 33hrs from 9am Sat, 14 Oct - 6pm Sun, 15 Oct

Forecast: On top of what has already fallen, expect another 50 to 70 mm of rain about the ranges with lesser amounts near the coast, easing mid Saturday afternoon. Peak rates of 15 to 20 mm/h. Further heavy rain is expected during Sunday and the validity of this Warning has been extended. From early Sunday morning, expect 100 to 120 mm of rain about the ranges with lesser amounts near the coast. Peak rates of 15 to 20 mm/h.

Area: Headwaters of the Canterbury lakes and rivers south of Arthur's Pass

Period: 33hrs from 9am Sat, 14 Oct - 6pm Sun, 15 Oct

Forecast: On top of what has already fallen, expect another 50 to 70 mm of rain near the divide, with lesser amounts within 25 km east of the divide, easing mid Saturday afternoon. Peak rates of 15 to 20 mm/h. Freezing level about 1800 metres, lowering to 1500 metres. Another period of heavy rain is expected on Sunday. From early Sunday morning, expect 100 to 120 mm of rain about the main divide with 80 to 100 mm within 25km east of the divide. Peak rates of 15 to 20 mm/h. Freezing level 1400 metres, rising to 1900 metres for a time during the event.

Strong Wind Warning - Orange
Impact: Strong wind gusts could damage trees, powerlines and unsecured structures. Driving may be hazardous, especially for high-sided vehicles and motorcycles.

Area: Wellington and Wairarapa south of Carterton

Period: 35hrs from 9am Sat, 14 Oct - 8pm Sun, 15 Oct

Forecast: Severe gale northwesterlies gusting 120 km/h in exposed places. Winds are expected to ease early Saturday evening but another period of severe gales is expected from late Sunday morning, and the validity of this Warning has been extended.

Area: Marlborough

Period: 36hrs from 9am Sat, 14 Oct - 9pm Sun, 15 Oct

Forecast: Severe gale northwesterlies gusting 120 km/h in exposed places, especially about the Kaikoura Coast and ranges. Winds are expected to ease late Saturday afternoon but another period of severe gales is expected from Sunday morning and the validity of this Warning has been extended.

Issued: 9:56am Sat, 14 Oct
Next update: 9pm Sat, 14 Oct

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 14/10/2023 11:08

Quite strong and gusty at the moment, enough to strip new leaves from the trees.
Winds should peak for most of Canterbury from 12pm until about 2:30pm with some brief spillover rain.
I wonder if there is a risk of elevated lightning tomorrow in any spillover rain bands, as it's much more unstable the air tomorrow through the west and high country.

JP. · Unread post by **JP.** » Sat 14/10/2023 11:34

Just been up the top of Rapaki track and Montgomery spur on my MTB. Really gusty up there with some dangerous riding conditions when gusting sideways on the bike.

Glad to be home safe and sound. Not too bad in the CBD yet

JP. · Unread post by **JP.** » Sat 14/10/2023 11:49

Also just received the emergency MS red warning on my phone and watch

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 14/10/2023 11:50

Just got the civil defense warning, winds ramping up now.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sat 14/10/2023 11:58

Wind in Halswell is terrifying right now. Worried about damage

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sat 14/10/2023 12:24

Shear at 850mb 1pm. Roughly 1500m ASL, no wonder the high country and plains is in red warning. Very strong gusts now

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sat 14/10/2023 13:02

NZCH averaging gale for last hour, gusts to 95kmh. We have been the same in Amberley.

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Sat 14/10/2023 13:35

All ground operations at CHC airport have been suspended.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sat 14/10/2023 13:49

Highest mean speed here now 67kmh with peak gust of 113kmh. Small trees down, greenhouse destroyed, sirens going off.

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Sat 14/10/2023 13:54

darcyplumb wrote: Sat 14/10/2023 13:35 All ground operations at CHC airport have been suspended.

would like to pass that info on, is there a link I might quote?

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Sat 14/10/2023 13:59

Orion wrote: Sat 14/10/2023 13:54
darcyplumb wrote: Sat 14/10/2023 13:35 All ground operations at CHC airport have been suspended.
would like to pass that info on, is there a link I might quote?

No sorry, the CHC airport website shows all flights currently unable to board or disembark due to weather. Canterbury Planespotters on Facebook has airport staff confirming that all ops have been suspended.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sat 14/10/2023 14:20

Up to 1pm

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sat 14/10/2023 14:34

This is the scariest wind I can recall since 1975. Huge gusts in the last 3 hours have been shaking the house. Mean speeds have dropped a little in the last hour, but gusts remain as strong as before. Power went off in a big flash about an hour ago. Limbs off trees. Reports of trees down across roads around the district, but I'm not venturing out. Too frigging frightening. The model guidance from the last 72 hours of severe gale speeds verging on storm force were bang on.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sat 14/10/2023 14:41

I wasn’t in West Melton for the September 2013 winds though in Sheffield they were the strongest winds I have ever experienced but this has certainly been the strongest winds in West Melton since I moved here in 2014, the gusts from 1pm have been brutal, there is going to be alot of damage around inland and even coastal Canterbury …

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Sat 14/10/2023 14:47

We have certainly dodged the worst of the winds here in Ashburton. They’ve been gusty, made me stop a few times and think ‘oh no here we go’ but then didn’t come to anything more. Thinking of you all north of here. Hopefully not too long to go.

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sat 14/10/2023 15:05

Getting some crazy gusts in Allenton just now

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 14/10/2023 15:06

Hasn't been too bad in southern Christchurch, the winds were certainly very strong at times stripping trees and small branches.
But the SW we had a few weeks ago was definitely stronger.

Wind has completely dropped here now.
A few trees down around the city, and southern cross hospital has had a part of its roof lifted.
Thinking of those affected in North Canterbury right now.

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