Thunderstorm risk 1-3 Feb

[Razor]

Thought I would create a new topic as it looks like decent chances across a lot of the country next 3 days

Not often you see Damaging Tornadoes in the warning discourse

https://www.metservice.com/warnings/thu ... rm-outlook

[Storm Struck]

Thinking tomorrow's risk zone sits slightly south of Christchurch until evening anyway, most of the surface moisture is further south until it moves north.
Saturday potential for large hail with such cold upper air in mid summer.

[Richard]

Good some good buildups now happening all around with a line running NW-SE which has produced storms many times in the past.

[TonyT]

Thinking tomorrow's risk zone sits slightly south of Christchurch until evening anyway, most of the surface moisture is further south until it moves north.
Saturday potential for large hail with such cold upper air in mid summer.

Tomorrow is about the mountains and foothills. Anything over the Plains will be dregs blown from the west. Saturday is potentially meso-cyclone territory.

[mikestormchaser]

Yes the cold trough has stuck since Mondays model runs. And hasn't really backed away. Two cold troughs.

1 tomorrow with a SW flick which I think Warrents a moderate risk on the plains. And eastern South island.

And the second one on Saturday also Warrents a moderate risk over much of the south island and a risk of severe hail. Will see how the next few runs go tomorrow.

[spwill]

Cold upper air/heating and convergence over Otago this afternoon/early evening and watch the wind change up the Canterbury coast later.


Thunderstorm risk looks more widespread tomorrow south of about Taupo /Rotorua. Mid to North Canterbury and the southern NI looking good for some storm activity.

[Razor]

MS Chch page has 16mm in an hour mid afternoon today. I am skeptical!

[Razor]

MS Chch page has 16mm in an hour mid afternoon today. I am skeptical!

And just like that it's changed

[Storm Struck]

Still think there is a zone that sits just slightly south of the city today, could really be dependent on timing of any troughs crossing to catch the SW change.
Tomorrow perhaps severe thunderstorms from mid Canterbury north.

Cloud building this morning as the rain gears up to cross the plains in the next half an hour. 18C with a light Northerly.

[JP.]

MS Chch page has 16mm in an hour mid afternoon today. I am skeptical!

And just like that it's changed

Can't see much except spillover showers today to be honest

[mikestormchaser]

Pretty good analysis from metservice. Their outlook for moderate risk looks right going by models for today.

And yes still looks like thunderstorms / hail for Canterbury, and Southern/eastern North island tomorrow.

[darcyplumb]

Big time spill over rain in South Canterbury at the moment. Very dark to my south.

[darcyplumb]

Beautiful mammatus after the spill over rain.

[Storm Struck]

Good splash of rain here with steady to briefly heavy falls, 3mm is a start in helping the dry grounds anyway.
There's a shower line just to the west and south of here that's building a big TCU head inland.
Looks like the trough is moving up the south island, this will be where we should see development from this afternoon/evening.
Cold front is the leading one we just had the rain from.

Back up to 23C now as it dropped to 17C with the rain before.

[Razor]

Stunning mammatus over Lincoln right now

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A bit of overthrow rain this morning but now all clearing away to the east.
Now nearly blue dome with a surface pressure of 976 hPa.
Calm with no wind. Nice pleasant day. Some harmless looking cloud around at the moment but with the surface hPa reading being low, anything can happen, hopefully when I am not at work.

[mikestormchaser]

Stunning mammatus over Lincoln right now

Signs of instability

[darcyplumb]

Radar is looking very lively again in South Canterbury.

[spwill]

A hail risk for the Central Otago fruit growing areas this afternoon.

[Storm Struck]

A storm has blown up to the NE of here, looks to be close to Amberley moving eastwards.
Also storm cell clusters through North Otago to South Canterbury.

[Razor]

Plenty of lightning coming up in the tracker app off the coast from Kaiapoi

Edit and now a cluster of 15 strikes off the coast south of Lake Ellesmere

[LinksviewAcres]

Looking east from waimate

[LinksviewAcres]

And again.

[Cantab03]

Beautiful evening here now. Managed 2mm earlier on, which will be evaporated with this bright sunshine. Praying for some decent showers tomorrow for CHCH before the 3 day heatwave comes back, otherwise expect plenty of fires to be on the cards around the region.

[TonyT]

A storm has blown up to the NE of here, looks to be close to Amberley moving eastwards.
Also storm cell clusters through North Otago to South Canterbury.

Heard a few rumbles as that rain band blew off the ranges from the northwest.