High risk of thunderstorms Canterbury 26thJan

[Richard]

First time for while that a high risk has been given by the MetService along with a moderate risk of severe for Canterbury
[moderator note - this forecast is for the 26th, not 25th, title changed]

Screenshot 2025-01-25 at 10-04-36 Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand - MetService is New Zealand’s only authorised provider of Severe Weather Alerts.png

Screenshot 2025-01-25 at 10-07-16 Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand - MetService is New Zealand’s only authorised provider of Severe Weather Alerts.png

[Storm Struck]

Really struggling to figure this out, the only potential dynamics I can see for tomorrow are good surface wind convergences.
This mixing with slightly high humidity and dew points, undercutting cold air.
Even so the cold upper air is lagging behind until about 3am Monday morning.

No instability numbers cape etc showing though.
Personally would have a low risk but perhaps there is something I'm not seeing that MS is.

[TonyT]

Really struggling to figure this out, the only potential dynamics I can see for tomorrow are good surface wind convergences.
This mixing with slightly high humidity and dew points, undercutting cold air.
Even so the cold upper air is lagging behind until about 3am Monday morning.

No instability numbers cape etc showing though.
Personally would have a low risk but perhaps there is something I'm not seeing that MS is.

Interesting you should say that, as I mostly agree. Plenty of low level humidity should allow for some heavy showers and downpours with minimal triggering, but I cant really see the upper atmosphere temps supporting significant thunder/lightning development.

[mikestormchaser]

I too am abit bam boozled with this outlook for Canterbury.

I did see this and have checked out the model data and I can't agree with what metservice have put out. Agree with above comments

[Bradley]

Good test tomorrow whether the Metservice is out of its depth in the forecast industry…

[dogmelon]

Someone just wanted to put the cloud with a lightning bolt symbol on chc for once.

[Richard]

Good test tomorrow whether the Metservice is out of its depth in the forecast industry…

Shame there's not tab on this forum where we could run a betting thread .

[Kobi]

I don't see it as that high of a chance as metservice is saying.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Might get some clagg and violent drizzle?

[Richard]

Reduced back to a moderate risk this morning

26thJ.png

[mikestormchaser]

The risk has increased slightly looking at this mornings run for mid Canterbury, very high DP today ahead of the change.
I still don't think the risk is very high but one to keep a watch on never the less. Will see what happens but will be kudos to MetService if it does happen

[Orion]

For the record, then: chez Orion, currently overcast, 15.4°C, 79% humidity, 999.8hPa.
South-easterly drift.

[Razor]

Sun breaking through in Chch. Warm.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Not looking likely here. Overcast with hardly any wind. Just hung the washing up on the line, hopefully that will make it thunder and rain

[dogmelon]

Not looking likely here. Overcast with hardly any wind. Just hung the washing up on the line, hopefully that will make it thunder and rain

I reckon it'll do just that now because of you doing that.
Its a bit sticky-like in chc and still with some sun. There may be enough heating to wind the storm spring up in time?

[Richard]

Plenty of sunshine here with 22.4deg, building clouds around the hills

[Orion]

Currently: overcast lowering, light drizzle; 16.7°C, 76% humidity, 997.1hPa.
Gentle south-south-easterly breeze.
A line of scattered low cloud visible to the south.

[LinksviewAcres]

Mostly drizzle all day in Waimate. Now steady light rain.

[Storm Struck]

There is instability on the models for today now, but the upper air is still too warm for me during the 4 to 10pm change window.
Perhaps the humidity localised NE and warm temperatures prior to the surface southerly will be enough of a mix.
There is some towers inland so the topographical influence is helping.
We are constantly learning each day as the weather evolves so I'm interested to see how today goes.

[Razor]

Hot and sunny on the Port Hills steady NE breeze

[Richard]

Thunder now been heard to my NW

[Richard]

Now have two storms producing thunder, this one to my SW is a lot more active than the one to my NW.

26thJA.JPG

[Storm Struck]

Latest radar picking storm cell development in a line from Oxford to up your way Richard, nice capture.
Cells are moving towards the E-SE, so Rangiora might be hearing something soon.

[Razor]

Yes a definite area of interest to the north of Christchurch City. Long distant rolling thunder heard from Mt Pleasant

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Gone southerly here now and coming onto rain. I bought the washing in just before it came onto rain. It was nearly dry.
Looks like any activity will be well north of here.