Big High here to stay

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 13/10/2003 20:24

Looks like a big Anticyclone will be here for a while. Models suggest it will influence our weather well into next week. Looks like its Michael's turn for some 'interesting weather'.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 13/10/2003 22:07

We can only hope it stays "low enough" so we dont get the SW from it and then when it does move off we get a nice northerly ridge where it blows in the capital and not here and the rain stays in Fiordland

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 13/10/2003 22:28

A long period of settled weather will sure make a change, especially for northerners, but also for us down south. We've had a wide variety of weather - not the constant rain those up north have been suffering, but regular spells of unsettled and often very cold weather. Sometimes interesting (ie when snow falls to low levels or there are spectaular hail squalls), but still not easy to plan outdoor activities when conditions are often very complicated and changeable. Forecast accuracies I believe have been lower than normal since about August. It's tempting to blame MetService for not getting it right, but weather systems have been so complicated lately, especially lows, never easy things to predict the movement of.

One last feature of this latest unsettled spell should be another cold southerly outbreak. We're already feeling it in Chch this evening, and the eastern and central North Island should get it overnight and in the morning. Predicted snow levels in the North Island range from 600 to 900 metres, depending on which forecast you're listening to/reading.

Apparently October so far has been much colder than normal - an article in the last Sunday Star Times has the 3 big cities reporting temperatures of 1.7C - 3C below normal, even colder than October last year.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 13/10/2003 23:06

I think it will be a cold high with not very much spectacular temperatures over the country. Micheal in Auckland should benefit but there could be some cool SW.
Certainly will bring a spell of boring weather for the likes of myself and Aaron, certainly for this time of year when spring conditions should bring ripe weather.
There also must be a time for settled weather and this anticyclone will do so.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 14/10/2003 08:40

Its dawned clear today

and it possibly looks like it will be "BeeBop Weather" today as its not quite Southerly enough to drop the wind from the SSW and also some cloud may escape through to western districts

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 14/10/2003 21:25

No frost in Chch this morning - southerly was still blowing and some cloud about. However, it feels like we're heading for one tonight, as it's clear, plus the wind has died down.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 14/10/2003 21:37

a beutiful day here, not a cloud in the sky all day
wind still blowing (9:30pm), and swinging slowly more SW, so we will have some cloudy periods tomorrow

the mud dried out lots today ....

still cold wind though, high of only 15oC high
1.9oC colder than normal for october so far

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 14/10/2003 21:50

[quote="Manukau heads observer"]a beutiful day here, not a cloud in the sky all day
wind still blowing (9:30pm), and swinging slowly more SW, so we will have some cloudy periods tomorrow

Thats what I call BeeBop weather as it can be sunny then cloudy then cold but with gales

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 14/10/2003 23:29

I don't think there will be any gales in Auckland over the next few days, well much into next week and the week following that. All activity will pass mainly to the south of the country.
Another earthquake was felt here this afternoon.
Much shallower than the identical 'quake on Sept 30th, only 4.3rs
Tony T would of felt it!!

JohnGaul
NZT&ES

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Wed 15/10/2003 00:41

I see on channel one news that they were saying convective buildups could happen down in the central Otaga area in the afternoon just like summer last year when all the highs went over. I doubt they will be thundery at all, just Cu clouds, not warm enough yet.

Will there be a repeat of these heat lows this year in the central Otago area, I don't know but can anyone tell me if these heat lows down that way happened even in the years before last, is it a common thing when highs come over?

Cheers
Aaron Wilkinson

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Wed 15/10/2003 09:50

see on channel one news that they were saying convective buildups could happen down in the central Otaga area in the afternoon just like summer last year when all the highs went over. I doubt they will be thundery at all, just Cu clouds, not warm enough yet.

Will there be a repeat of these heat lows this year in the central Otago area, I don't know but can anyone tell me if these heat lows down that way happened even in the years before last, is it a common thing when highs come over?

Cheers
Aaron Wilkinson

Not unusual especially in December and January Aaron, this is what Central Otago cherry growers fear the most.

Awesome to watch as Cu clouds start building around lunch time, then come 16:00-17:00 all hell breaks loose. 10mm in 10 tens is not uncommon

Especially if the High has come across and picked up a lot of humid air from Australia

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 15/10/2003 12:05

I'm not sure why the forecaster was going for inland heat showers for Central Otago. They are not in today's forecast though.

As Andy says, December is the prime season for them. And mositure is the big trigger action. A good sign for inland thunder in Otago in December is extensive low cloud along the coast.

Last year there was quite a prolonged spell for instability Thunderstorms from 30th November to 4th December. Isolated spectacular heat thunderstorms developed daily in this period over Southland/Otago.
Dewpiont temperatures over the region for this period where upto 15C.
So very moist. Moisture does amazing things to the stability of the atmosphere in summer when there is good thermal heating. Cb tops during that period where upto 12000m(40,000ft). Would have been great clouds to observe.

The central North Island is similar to central Otago for afternoon heat showers/storms in early summer.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Wed 15/10/2003 14:20

Yes Steven, I watched the midday forecast on one news and there was no mention of these buildups like they said last night, they must of revised their forecast.

When I get my license (drivers) it would be fun to go down there when things look good for some action! (thunderstorms people!)

Why is it these heat lows only form down that way and in the central north Island area, why not on the Canterbury plains? I do notice that central Otago and the central north Island area has more land (the body of land is more wider) then Cantab, is that why?

Those storms must be fun to watch Andy, I got to see a bit of Johns footage from down there last year and it looked so cool!

Here we go, Cb's in central Otago and look to be in central North Island areas last year, Dec 4th 2:32pm. Why didn't they occur in Canterbury? Is it because the land is to skinny at that point?

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 15/10/2003 17:32

At least the weather today was even better than yesterday as it wasn't BeeBop today(Just the way it should stay for a while)

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 15/10/2003 17:39

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:Why is it these heat lows only form down that way and in the central north Island area, why not on the Canterbury plains? I do notice that central Otago and the central north Island area has more land (the body of land is more wider) then Cantab, is that why?

Here we go, Cb's in central Otago and look to be in central North Island areas last year, Dec 4th 2:32pm. Why didn't they occur in Canterbury? Is it because the land is to skinny at that point?

Probably because Canterbury had a "cool" NE and couldnt meet the westcoast air due to the alps stopping it also Central Otago heats up a lot in an anticyclone.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Wed 15/10/2003 17:46

Why is it these heat lows only form down that way and in the central north Island area, why not on the Canterbury plains? I do notice that central Otago and the central north Island area has more land (the body of land is more wider) then Cantab, is that why?

Perhaps it has to do with these areas being less influenced by the the sea, eg temp and wind.

I know during the times these storms develop, the air is very still no wind. Also with high dew points and rain every day the Cbs just get bigger as there is an increase in available moisture if conditions donâ€™t change.

And yes Aaron these storms are wicked to watch, i have seen some as good as i have seen in Australia. but with out the lightening.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Wed 15/10/2003 22:34

Thanks guys, that helps heaps!

Also, Andy, excuse my ignorance but what do you mean by:

but with out the lightening.

?

Thanks

Aaron Wilkinson

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Thu 16/10/2003 08:11

hehe that was ment to be lightning

Another beaut of a day here in Alexandra blue dome with no clouds, should be another 20+ day today

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 16/10/2003 08:12

Australian storms are more lightning active. Its to do with the higher levels of CAPE (bouyant energy), you get over continents. Generally, the higher the CAPE, the higher lightning activity.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 16/10/2003 10:54

Its just got "awful"

here now theres a SW drift to the cloud pattern now

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 16/10/2003 16:59

It improved markedly this afternoon

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Thu 16/10/2003 17:51

temp for today reached 25 degrees, with a little high cloud late afternoon and a light Northwester

Not bad from starting at 2.3 at 7.00am this morniing

Andy
Alexandra

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 16/10/2003 17:57

temp for today reached 25 degrees, with a little high cloud late afternoon and a light Northwester

Not bad from starting at 2.3 at 7.00am this morniing

Andy
Alexandra[/quote]
Sounds Wonderful it wont be like that here until February

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 16/10/2003 19:19

Looks like there is plenty of fine warm weather to come for inland areas
over the next few days. For Auckland, a southwest breeze will provide variable cloud and hold daytime temps to around 17-18C. But it is going to stay dry atleast.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Thu 16/10/2003 20:00

Looks like there is plenty of fine warm weather to come for inland areas over the next few days.

yea thats for sure looks like temps above 20 degrees for the next 5-7 days with mild west to northwest winds.

The snow starting to melt back, still plenty around for this time of year.

Andy