Yes it's true I just been re looking at models and they have changed somewhat since Wednesday there's a slight chance of thunder tonight but low at that I even see MS have put that up on thier outlook.
This sunday is a better bet being closer and id say with a moderate risk at this stage Then possibly another risk Wednesday night at this stage thats low but next Friday looks very good check out MSLP maps for next friday a real deep pool on the west coast of the South Island.
What do others think? I see Fencepost has predicted thunder for tonight and sunday.
Any thoughts poeple .
Cheers
Jason.
Last edited by Storm Struck on Fri 10/03/2006 13:36, edited 1 time in total.
A small chance of a few brief thundery showers that is, I don't have that much confidence in tonight due to pre frontal NW flow. Even if there is no pre frontal NW the upper level support isn't great. Also the evening change, agreed a low risk but that's all I'd put it at. The ridge over the North Island doesn't boad to well for thunder down here either.
Sunday does look to be better however it still isn't as clear cut as Wednesday was for e.g.
And then there's next Thursday which could be the next chance.
In saying that, unleash thunderstorms anytime please if you can sky!
Jasestrm wrote: I see Fencepost has predicted thunder for tonight and sunday.
Not quite true, the forecast for tonight is "...might bring a few thundery showers" and for Sunday, "some thunderstorms and hail possible", so its just a mightbe rather than a prediction.
Yeh I know what you mean Tony but atleast the chances for them are there at the moment because usually when we get thunderstorms in canterbury like Wednesday there isnt any for quite some time.
We shall see what the days ahead bring ill fix the heading too .
Cheers
Jason.
The conflicting descriptions of the weather of the same region - as in the case of Melbourne - show once again how completely subjective these views are...
Auckland/Hamilton get too many thunderstorms, quite often they seem to pinch clouds to make them so the rest of the country dosen't get any of the action
Gosh you make me laugh JohnGaul - did the thunderstorms that ChCh had the other night not quench you thirst a little? I will try to send some thunderclouds your way
Started off nice & mild this morning (17) then there was 8mm rain with WNW and now the SW is dropping the odd shower with a little hail I think. But I will not complain.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Auckland/Hamilton get too many thunderstorms, quite often they seem to pinch clouds to make them so the rest of the country dosen't get any of the action
JohnGaul
NZTS
Not enough. Still too rare comparing to inland Europe, Fiordland, eastern South America, the midwest/Prairies US
Too bad we don't get enough days of instability in the Waikato basin or over the plateau.. it's resources aren't being utilised properly and enough by Thor!
Flutterbye wrote: - did the thunderstorms that ChCh had the other night not quench you thirst a little? I will try to send some thunderclouds your way
...just a little, just a little
by the way there are some sfreics now, could be thunderous way out to sea around BP but I can't see anything from here, well from outside.
southerly breezes and fine here and 14C JohnGaul
NZTS
Looks very marginal for thunderstorms today, hence I'm not forecasting any apart from in Fiordland ranges. As for Sunday, looks like the very cold deeply unstable air in the southern oceans will miss the country and pass off to the south.
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Unread postby Manukau heads obs »
there is alot of showers in a what looks to be a sharpening trough in the tasman.....which is heading NE....i think this is worth watching to see what it does,.....it could weaken and fade away...or reinforce the slow moving front lying over the kawhia area and push that onto us later today and give heavy showers here late today or tomorrow?
anyway, worth keeping on eye on i feel!
somethings gonna happen to the north of nz but the models cant decide how much and where, by the looks
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Unread postby Manukau heads obs »
rain radar shows that front from over the kawhia area is not making much northward movement...pity it did not stall over this area!
just a few light showers around here....
but it should get shoved north and mabe activate more as the next trough approaches from the SW?
dang, it looks like the sub tropical low to form to the NE of the NI is only going to give rain to gisborne as it brushes past the NI on tuesday/wed....
more rain we are going to miss in the auckland area....is there a big umbrella over us or something?
Only possiblities for tomoro morning is a low risk of thunderstorms off the coast, possible brushing Bp. Any storms later in the week dont really look that great either.
I confess its all my fault re: the fine wx in AKL. No matter where I am in the world it always follows me and as much as I am enraptured with thunder, lightning, hail and torrential downpour, the sun refuses to leave me alone.
I moved back to NZ after living in the UK for a few years. What happens a few months after? Record snow falls, storms and all the good stuff. I spent 2 months in Texas, was fixated with the tornado watches on the telly. End result, I only saw a few thunder storms the best of which was from being entombed inside an aircraft for 6 hours on the main twy at Houston for (20 min flight back to Dallas), the skipper didn't want to loose his slot......grrrrr.
I have come to the conculsion that AKL wx is nothing but a big tease!!!
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Unread postby Michael »
You forgotten the fact is our winter like wet continues well into Astronomical Spring ie October even November can be very unsettled
Manukau heads observer wrote:rain radar shows that front from over the kawhia area is not making much northward movement...pity it did not stall over this area!
....
more rain we are going to miss in the auckland area....is there a big umbrella over us or something?
Went across to Rotorua for the day.. heavy drizzly showers on the drive there up to the Mamaku decline towards the lake where Rotorua was dry. Some good localised convection later on though towards the south of rr
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