The Next Trough

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 04/04/2006 22:38

ECMWF earlier on had a sort of a "Drewery DsB side rod" weather system moving over the seas to the south of the country. This being quite in contast to the earlier weather patterns of March.
Apart from reported thunderstorm activity over Westland today, I don't think this system to be relatively active or was.
However, the next trough seems to have the same scenario, rain on the west Coast, some thunderstorms maybe and fine boring weather in eastern areas..
Today, i thought a tornado may of been reported , but nothing., well so far reported.
Barometer pressures are going to be low ...but with fine weather.
Monday next week so far has a potential of 1 but keep your fingers and arse crossed

JohnGaul
NZTS

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 05/04/2006 12:09

Fattening jetstream on the way for the upper North island.. tonight until Friday evening.. that should mean strong to gale westerlies in store for Auckland come Friday (gusts to 100km/h).. there may be a few land wind warnings put out there. But hopefully not like the warnings they put out spring last year!

Heavy rain possible for Christchurch Friday morning.. with a gale northwest change... heavy rain also developing into the evening for Coastal Otago with a southwesterly change.

Possible thunder for Taranaki tomorrow afternoon with the intrusion of a pocket of cooler upper-air

Westport set to get some big thundery downpours

Edit, looking very ripe for troughy tasman thunderstorms for the upper North Monday

But of course with the baro getting very low.. anything can happen before that

(Bring on a good squall line!)

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Wed 05/04/2006 12:51

[quote="NZ Thunderstorm Soc"]
Monday next week so far has a potential of 1 but keep your fingers and arse crossed

quote]

Hey John, how does your Potential Scale work again?

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 05/04/2006 15:30

Looks like that rain up in Northland has turned thundery

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Wed 05/04/2006 15:38

Foggy Hamilton wrote:Looks like that rain up in Northland has turned thundery

yes you should see all the high cloud spewing out of it.....

its affected any uplift that we may of got today..

damn northlanders

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 05/04/2006 16:19

Looks like that rain up in Northland has turned thundery

Some TS north of kaitia.

One or two Thunderstorms now in that pool of cold showery weather south of Victoria. It will be interesting to watch that develop as it moves into the Tasman Sea.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Wed 05/04/2006 19:40

The NE winds should start strenthining tomorrow here according to news weather 55kmh so a blustery day ahead.
But friday should be a typical windstorm day big gales followed by scatterd rain wudnt surprise me if a thunderstorm spills over into south canty from the Alps and maybe even gusts may reach 130kmh+ for inland areas and BP.
Cheers
Jason.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 05/04/2006 19:42

Edit, looking very ripe for troughy tasman thunderstorms for the upper North Monday Very Happy

Storms possibly coming from the ones I've experienced in northern NSW.

I witnessed spectacular activity from Byron Bay yesterday afternoon. A cb built up well to the west in afternoon, and beaceme much bigger by about 3-4pm. I was walking around the heads when I started to see massive bolts of lightning to the west, plus some sheet lightning. The storm moved closer as I quickly went back to where I was staying - I got there 10 minutes before the heavens open! (about 5pm) Some strikes were rather close by then. After an hour or so, the rain was lighter, and cleared in another hour or so, but there was still an amazing lightshow offshore. Another thunderstorm with heavy rain hit just before dawn, clearing up but about 10am.

There was also a short downpour in Nimbin about 3.45 this afternoon, but I didn't notice any thunder or lightning. (no I wasn't wasted on any substances)

[/quote]

Manukau heads obs · Wed 05/04/2006 21:02

http://www.loganvillageweather.com/lightning/index.php
that web site you could use to track the lightning
sounds like some exciting weather
you could see the cb tops on the sat image alright!

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Wed 05/04/2006 21:23

That Byron Bay cell had 120km/hr winds, large hail size up to golf balls and 45mm of rain in 23mins. I had 4 storms so far this outbreak for 2 days so far, but more storms coming from the west. It seems forming into a squall line!

But no severe storm warning out yet, i hope cause of i am alone here atm

50knots+ winds recorded here last night and 46mm of rain in two days so far (still in current for my rain guage), i hope to brake April daily average rainfall

Matt

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 05/04/2006 21:55

Andrew Massie wrote:

Hey John, how does your Potential Scale work again?

1 = not likely but the potential is there
2 = quite probable
3 = quite on the cards
4 = yes, looks likely
5 = definately

JohnGaul
NZTS

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Thu 06/04/2006 05:28

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Andrew Massie wrote:

Hey John, how does your Potential Scale work again?
1 = not likely but the potential is there
2 = quite probable
3 = quite on the cards
4 = yes, looks likely
5 = definately

JohnGaul
NZTS

Thanks Mate!

Looking forward to some 5s!

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 06/04/2006 07:06

1 = NO
2 = MIGHT
3 = MAYBE
4 = COULD
5 = KINETIC
Hey John, how does your Potential Scale work again?[/quote]

1 = not likely but the potential is there
2 = quite probable
3 = quite on the cards
4 = yes, looks likely
5 = definately

JohnGaul
NZTS[/quote]

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Thu 06/04/2006 10:18

Wow, check out the thunderstorm development on the front moving across the tasman now..

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Thu 06/04/2006 10:55

ricky wrote:Wow, check out the thunderstorm development on the front moving across the tasman now..

Do you have a link to see this?
Cheers

Manukau heads obs · Thu 06/04/2006 11:00

try
http://www.portunus.net.nz/weather/boltek600.png

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Thu 06/04/2006 11:22

Yes, that front looks amazing.. not many discharges at the moment from those storms tich experienced.

Here's another good link:
http://flash.ess.washington.edu/L_plot_weather_map.jpg

hmmmmmm.. haven't had a thundery front in a while have we?

On the satellite it looks like a very rare front.. must be embedded in a very cool-cored system

Manukau heads obs · Thu 06/04/2006 11:35

and that image animated
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb ... tpfile.gif

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 06/04/2006 11:53

That Front out there is really firing, should see plenty of thunderstorms in the Tasman over the next few days and hopefully some onto us.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 06/04/2006 12:34

the low center will eventualy cross central NZ...and there could be come real thundery weather for the NI coming!

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Thu 06/04/2006 15:17

Monday is looking better and better for that

yes it was that flash ess sat image with the lightning that really shows up the activity there... haven't seen anything like that outside of the tropics before from that.. well ok maybe oz east coast sometimes...

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Thu 06/04/2006 15:19

Grumble grumble grumble sulk sulk.... bloody West Coast and North Island will have all the fun....

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 06/04/2006 16:41

That Byron Bay cell had 120km/hr winds, large hail size up to golf balls and 45mm of rain in 23mins.

I didn't notice any hail, but the rain was torrential. But someone else I talked too experienced large hail not far from Byron.

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Thu 06/04/2006 19:14

Hey guys, i got storm reports from Tuesday night!
http://www.freewebs.com/mattweather/4th ... ercell.htm

any comments on this?

Matt

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 06/04/2006 19:57

any comments on this?

Severe thunderstorms are a normal occurrence for SE Queensland down to Sydney.
Season is October till about now.

Great photo's on Weatherzone.

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