Metservice claims high weather prediction accuracy
(NZ Herald today)
MetService was 84 per cent accurate in predicting heavy snow in the year ended June 30, it says in its annual report. It also claims it was 87 per cent accurate in its predictions of heavy rain and 83 per cent for severe gales.
However, 23 per cent of its heavy rain warnings were false alarms, as were 30 per cent of heavy snow warnings and 25 per cent of severe gale warnings.
Interesting
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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tich
- Posts: 3525
- Joined: Sat 15/03/2003 18:32
- Location: Christchurch (St Albans)/Akaroa
We must also look at intensity and spread of events when judging how accurate warnings turn out to be. For example look at the late September heavy snow event in Canterbury this year. Warnings were issued I think the day befor,e for heavy snow in the high country down as low as 400 metres. What eventuated was heavy snow down to about 200 metres. Alot of farming country in Canterbury lies between 200 and 400 metres.
The general public with little meteorological knowledge is likely to blame MetService for not predicting the low level heavy snow. However, those of us (hopefully including most farmers) who understand weather systems more and can see the possibilities of how certain systems can affect the various parts of the country in coming days, could've seen that the situation was one that could easily dump heavy snow to low levels in inland Canterbury.
Also MetService heavy rain warnings tend to cover the likelihood of large scale events, ie those that could affect whole districts, eg Westland or Northland. Less easy to predict are localised heavy downpours, such as those induced by convergence zones and convective downpours/thunderstorms (the latter may be easy to predict for a region, but where exactly they hit is very difficult to forecast)
The general public with little meteorological knowledge is likely to blame MetService for not predicting the low level heavy snow. However, those of us (hopefully including most farmers) who understand weather systems more and can see the possibilities of how certain systems can affect the various parts of the country in coming days, could've seen that the situation was one that could easily dump heavy snow to low levels in inland Canterbury.
Also MetService heavy rain warnings tend to cover the likelihood of large scale events, ie those that could affect whole districts, eg Westland or Northland. Less easy to predict are localised heavy downpours, such as those induced by convergence zones and convective downpours/thunderstorms (the latter may be easy to predict for a region, but where exactly they hit is very difficult to forecast)
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NZstorm
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- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
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Manukau heads obs
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- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
the latter may be easy to predict for a region, but where exactly they hit is very difficult to forecast)
well, if they use people's local knowledge more, i.e weather enthusiasts, then they can narrow it down
i.e for this greater district area, I can tell you where the convective CB's etc occur and who will get them most....and as the situation unfolds, I can tell whats likely to happen, etc ,etc...to a degreee, lol......ie local fine tune forecasting../
well, if they use people's local knowledge more, i.e weather enthusiasts, then they can narrow it down
i.e for this greater district area, I can tell you where the convective CB's etc occur and who will get them most....and as the situation unfolds, I can tell whats likely to happen, etc ,etc...to a degreee, lol......ie local fine tune forecasting../
