Low #3, yet more Thunderstorms

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 01/05/2006 11:21

Time for a new thread I think

New low has developed in the NW Tasman sea yada. Thunderstorms developing tomorrow for all of Northland, and that same region (Auckland/Coromandel/Waikato) should see thunderstorms through on Wednesday as well as Northland. Northeast breezes tomorrow for AK, tending norherly on Wednesday. Main frontal band due tomorrow night delivering rain.

Westerly change on Thursday should see heavy showers across the upper North, winds turning gusty southwesterly on Friday with easing showers.

This wind must not tend E at all otherwise Eastern Coromandel is in for another hammering

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 01/05/2006 11:38

Thunder forecast for Auckland every day this week except thursday.
Crickey!

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Mon 01/05/2006 11:40

we live in hope again foggy!

i'd say it will slip to ze east again, like last week.

So on a positive note, it makes for great viewing from Auckland.

cheers for the heads up foggy, and northland look out for those tornadoes.

hey while i'm here to, does anyone have any links on how to read tephigrams? i read them at uni (waikato) when I was studying met, but that was a long time ago, and I may have even been drunk during that lecture and prolly gawking at girls (went to a boys school you see!)

so yeah if anyone has some good bits on tephigrams that would be great.

what are your thoughts on todays convection??

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 01/05/2006 12:09

go the thunderstoms enjoy them and send some over here

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Mon 01/05/2006 12:10

Foggy Hamilton wrote:Time for a new thread I think

New low has developed in the NW Tasman sea yada. Thunderstorms developing tomorrow for all of Northland, and that same region (Auckland/Coromandel/Waikato) should see thunderstorms through on Wednesday as well as Northland. Northeast breezes tomorrow for AK, tending norherly on Wednesday. Main frontal band due tomorrow night delivering rain.

Westerly change on Thursday should see heavy showers across the upper North, winds turning gusty southwesterly on Friday with easing showers.

This wind must not tend E at all otherwise Eastern Coromandel is in for another hammering

I see there is a weather warning out for the Coromandel for tomorrow. More rain.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 01/05/2006 12:43

Nice Cumulus building over the waitaks now, starting to tower a bit too even

Manukau heads obs · Mon 01/05/2006 13:03

here is one going up not far from me

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Mon 01/05/2006 13:06

cheers for that brian,

methinks it looks a bit thin out there now, kinda like there aint enuff moisture around

but we live in hope and shall see

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Mon 01/05/2006 14:03

well i may have jinxed meself again!

looks quite strong out there now, esp to the SE.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 01/05/2006 14:26

Looks like the MetService are accurately pegging where these thunderstorms are heading, learning well after the last low

Some nice T/Cu going up along the flanks of the great basin today, but a lack of moisture and cold air aloft is not letting it develop any further.

API indicies rising to extreme over Piako/Coromandel districts; not good. Atleast this low will be a bit breezier.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 01/05/2006 14:28

Lets not go there

Foggy Hamilton wrote:winds turning gusty southwesterly on Friday with easing showers.

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Mon 01/05/2006 14:41

yeah its fizzling here too, i think there may be a temp inversion at around 250mb but my interpretation of soundings is quite, well crap to say the least.

but to look at it seems that they go up, hang around for a bit and then go 'sod this' and fizz out.

if i am right on this sounding thing, then i can see why metservice are predicting possible tornadoes 2moro seeing as these is quite alot of upper level wind shear at about 270mb

please correct me if i am wrong tho as i really want to learn about this stuff *help*

agingaquarian · Unread post by **agingaquarian** » Mon 01/05/2006 14:46

Yes, I've been watching very active cumulus for the last couple of hours. Like Nimbus I keep seeing towers stating up and then dissipating. Having said that, the general cloud cover is increasing, some of which is looking very black.

Again, like Nimbus, I need some interpretation, please.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 01/05/2006 14:55

C-Nimbus wrote:yeah its fizzling here too, i think there may be a temp inversion at around 250mb but my interpretation of soundings is quite, well crap to say the least.

but to look at it seems that they go up, hang around for a bit and then go 'sod this' and fizz out.

if i am right on this sounding thing, then i can see why metservice are predicting possible tornadoes 2moro seeing as these is quite alot of upper level wind shear at about 270mb

please correct me if i am wrong tho as i really want to learn about this stuff *help*

250mb is jetstream height!

where the jumbo jets fly over 11,000m+

You'd want to be looking at caps at around 680mb (3000m or so.. thats as high as the Cu are rising today)

There is no cap present.

Have a good read of this
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/thermo/

I know I need to.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 01/05/2006 15:06

the SW sea breeze killed things here
but a sea breeze convergence looks like might start to happen over henderson way..

there are some good CB's way out to the north and east of auckland (again!)

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Mon 01/05/2006 15:13

cheers for that foggy, i'll take a read.

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Mon 01/05/2006 15:37

so moving on from there foggy, on the tephigram that i've read, the point where the red temp line suddenly goes positive at the 250mb level, does that indicate the tropopause?

if it does then that makes sense as this is the point of temp inversion isn't it.

cheers for that link too, i have had a gander and i think between that and digging up some old uni notes i should be right.

cheers

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Mon 01/05/2006 17:52

Bring them on... All these easterlies flatten the coast out here... Great for fishing...

http://www.waitarerebeach.net.nz/beachcam.htm

Flat as right now... Dont often see West Coast beaches like that often...

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 01/05/2006 17:56

like i say enjoy the storms hope coromandel is spared this rain event

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 01/05/2006 17:58

Some T/Cu this afternoon looking SE

Yes where it gets warmer as it increases with height is the inversion and/or tropopause at the average NZ height of about 250mb/10,000m.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 01/05/2006 18:01

typicall hamilton

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 01/05/2006 19:36

Yes, some good examples of towering Cu this afternoon.

Painting the outside of my house this week so I dont want Thunderstorms.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 01/05/2006 20:38

Some t/cu in unstable but dry air today. Got a few sprinkles though late afternoon. These clouds over Whenuapai, west AK.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 01/05/2006 21:51

i like the fact you got some palm trees in that one...looks tropical almost

some good cb's developing on the top side of the low....

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 02/05/2006 09:53

Predicted rain and storms appears to be extremely wide of the mark for the time being. Lovely morning here in Auckland city. Nothing significant within co-ee on rain radars. Another fizzer like yesterday???

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Low #3, yet more Thunderstorms

Low #3, yet more Thunderstorms

Re: Low #3, yet more Thunderstorms

Re: Low #3, yet more Thunderstorms