Wintry outbreak Monday 17th November

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 14/11/2003 13:35

The long-range forecast suggests the possibility of snow to low levels in the east and south of the South Island, though they don't clarify what they mean by 'low levels' on the internet short forecast. (National radio 12.30 long-range said about 600 or 700 metres in Otago and Southland - not what I'd call a low level) Yes there are also thunderstorms forecast for Canterbury on Monday, though by the look of things, it seems hail is more likely than thunder. This may sound unusual for so late in the year, but remember the wintry spell at the same time last year, and in November 2000.

Things then look more complicated as the front/trough moves onto the North Island. MetService suggests a low forming to the west of the island, maintaining widespread wet weather through Tuesday, while the NOGAPS and GIF models suggest a low forming the the east, maintaining the rain only in the east, and pushing a ridge over the South Island, presumably with fine weather there.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 14/11/2003 15:16

Could be an interesting day, Monday.
I'm off to Oamaru shortly and won't be back until Sunday night.
No access to internet/weather whilst I'm down there but I still will maintain my thunder-watch for Monday, however, it could be another day like yesterday. Wait and see.

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 14/11/2003 15:21

...by the way there is a seminar by Jim Sallinger on Monday 17th at 3:30pm for those interested here in ChCh.
Titled "CHRISTCHURCH CLIMATE: EXTREMES AND THE SEASON AHEAD.
Venue "Our City" Cnr Worchester Blvd and Ox ford Terrace..
May go with Bob Crowder if there are not any thunderstorms around.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 14/11/2003 16:38

Surprised!!! We seem to have seasons like the "far"northern hemisphere now with the better weather in the early and middle of the year

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Fri 14/11/2003 19:24

Yep looks cold on monday

Most models are going for 528 thickness over otago and -5 85o temps.

So pretty cold for mid november, it wouldn't be surprised if snow falls to 400-500m in otago.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 14/11/2003 20:00

So pretty cold for mid november, it wouldn't be surprised if snow falls to 400-500m in otago.

Sounds similar to the mid November cold blast last year. Being down in Dunedin for a wedding, I remember seeing snow on the tops of the hills - and that was in the afternoon (Sunday 17th), so it wasn't just the usual (for the time of year) overnight dusting which quickly melts in the morning.

...by the way there is a seminar by Jim Sallinger on Monday 17th at 3:30pm for those interested here in ChCh.
Titled "CHRISTCHURCH CLIMATE: EXTREMES AND THE SEASON AHEAD.
Venue "Our City" Cnr Worchester Blvd and Ox ford Terrace..

Thanks for posting that John. I'll make sure I'm there (as long as I remember).

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 14/11/2003 20:02

The 850hpa -5 is on par with what has been experienced the last couple of days over the SI.

The prediction of a low over the NI mid week(next week) looks promising for some thunderstorm activity for parts of northern NZ.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Mon 17/11/2003 08:18

Chilly southwester blowing at the moment. Showers around the mountains, and rather cold!!!

Temp ATM 4.2 degrees
Pressure 1016

A warm day yesterday before the change later afternoon, temp max was 25. And a very windy nor wester. Noticed it was very warm in Canterbury.

Andy

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 17/11/2003 12:19

Unseasonably cold for November (though similar to this time last year) today in Canty/Chch - snowing at Hilltop, Banks Peninsula (only 450 metres asl), settling above about 500 metres. A big contrast to yesterday's warm northwesterly, which was probably almost gale-force out on the peninsula. Still overcast in Chch, with light rain.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 17/11/2003 14:26

Some very wintry temperatures for November at 1PM (VUW obs) in east of South Island - only 5.9C in Kaikoura! The rain has now ceased in central Chch, with the odd patch of blue, but a fresh southerly is still blowing.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 17/11/2003 15:30

The rain has arrived here followed by the usual gales after a mild overcast day

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 17/11/2003 17:45

It's become fine and sunny in Chch this afternoon (with only scattered clouds remaining), but the cold southerly became strong and gusty for a time about midafternoon (seems to happen quite often when the weather clears in these situations). The wind is still fresh, but if it dies away tonight and the skies remain clear, we could be in for an unseasonable frost.

The cold air looks as if it's moved onto the south of the North Island - 8-9C temps at 4PM in Wellington and coastal Wairarapa. North Island freezing levels predicted to drop to about 1200 metres, so maybe a bit of snow on the top of the Desert Road tonight.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 17/11/2003 18:40

The 850hpa temperature at Invercargill today was -6.

Looks like this anticyclonic weather(in the north atleast) is set to continue with the environment drying out here. The dairy farmers in the north will start to be affected soon i think.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 17/11/2003 22:25

The wind is still fresh, but if it dies away tonight and the skies remain clear, we could be in for an unseasonable frost.

The wind has almost died away, but it has become partly cloudy. BTW, snow showers reported in Queenstown today. (TV1 Weather)

Manukau heads obs · Mon 17/11/2003 22:33

grass growth still good....but its going to seed badly....which is typilca of this time of year (the stem is not so digestiable, so the milk production has dropped a bit)
this wind will dry things out now, but the cool temperatures are helping...

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 18/11/2003 09:44

Surprise. I thought it would've stayed fine after it cleared up yesterday afternoon. But it clouded over again later in the evening, and there were light showers overnight and early this morning. Must've been an extra disturbance in the southerly. The weather (like rugby matches) can easily turn out differently to what was expected. At least local growers would've been spared an unseasonal frost.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 18/11/2003 10:59

originaly met service had rain today for the NI, tuesday, at the end of last week
not a cloud in the sky today
i think maybe they need to take off their winter hat and put on their summer hat!

BTW ,i have my weather data accesible by a WAP enabled cell phone now:
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/wap/index.wml

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Tue 18/11/2003 11:52

frost in inland Otago.

O in Alexandra

-2.2 Arrowtown

1 Oueenstown

0 Tara hills

Beaut of a day temp is climbing already, i have been in shorts and singlet since 10am

Manukau heads obs · Tue 18/11/2003 12:54

yup, nicest day i have seen for awhile...very blue skies!....temperature still climbing here too...(now 17oC)

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 18/11/2003 12:59

tich wrote: Must've been an extra disturbance in the southerly. The weather (like rugby matches) can easily turn out differently to what was expected. At least local growers would've been spared an unseasonal frost.

Actually the way we saw the models that was exactly what we thought would happen, which is why we had only 35% risk of frost and expected lows of +1 or higher for our frost clients. So it did turn out as we expected really.

Some areas around Blenheim got to -2 overnight, which could easily have happened here in Canty if the cloud had stayed away and the breeze stayed down.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 18/11/2003 14:55

Manukau heads observer"]yup, nicest day i have seen for awhile...very blue skies!....temperature still climbing here too...(now 17oC

About Time

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 18/11/2003 21:30

Actually the way we saw the models that was exactly what we thought would happen, which is why we had only 35% risk of frost and expected lows of +1 or higher for our frost clients. So it did turn out as we expected really.

Actually MetService weren't too far off the mark yesterday - they predicted a few showers lingering on Banks Peninsula until this morning. Early today, they amended the forecast to include a few clearing showers in Chch as well.

I don't think this cold outbreak affected the North Island too much - showers were probably confined to the east, though freezing levels should've been cold enough to bring snow to, say 1000 metres, on exposed ranges.