Dangerous twin low pressures and scattered severe weather EC

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Sat 20/05/2006 14:17

Looking so promising for us, this topic is now for forecasts and chat corresponding to Large ECL and possible mini cyclone for EC Aussie's topic. Anyway looking so severe to our eyes from the models, GFS have told us there going to be a super low pressure system forming off NE NSW coast and heading south to SE to NZL during next week which may bring us some damaging squalls around 100km/hr and floods, highland snow and possible coastal severe thunderstorms.
http://data.theweather.com.au/access/im ... lp.120.png

By that day would be the worst affecting which is the closest to the coast and POTENTIALLY dangerous between Fraser Island to Green Cape. If that low deepening under 990hpa, definitly going to be some high winds and widespread severe winds/or thunderstorms.

By GASP told us for 2nd low pressure may form off Fraser Island and doing to repeation to our coastal areas, that low pressure would be morely severe and particurly dangerous.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/tw ... lp&hour=-1
Look like for us next weekend! Anyway thats would be much more dangerous and high chance of rainfalls from both systems of course.

I going to say that is may include:
80% of severe characteristics
20% of coastal supercells
10% of severe mircobursts which may led major damage
90% of flooding chance

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 20/05/2006 15:00

this topic is now for forecasts and chat corresponding to Large ECL and possible mini cyclone

You already had a topic, didn't you??

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Sat 20/05/2006 15:23

This topic means for only reports and chat, but i have to start with forecasts which i said correspondings the other topic

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sat 20/05/2006 17:21

So who likes chocolate icecream? Hands up if you like chocolate icecream.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sat 20/05/2006 18:52

stick to the one topic me thinks

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 20/05/2006 20:05

Gary Roberts wrote:So who likes chocolate icecream? Hands up if you like chocolate icecream.

My hand is up

JohnGaul
NZTS

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Sat 20/05/2006 20:56

Mine is scrabbling around on the car seat later to see if any has missed my trouser zone and landed on the seat, only to be sat on!

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 20/05/2006 22:15

Why does every post have to be about dangerous situations Matt? to me it's only dangerous if you are caught in the wrong place you are better going with water spilt on an open live wire now thats dangerous

.

Yes John sounds like choclate icecream to sit back and celebrate a comfertable semi final win

hmm now what to do with the canes

we could start by cutting Tana's spider off

.

Cheers
Jason.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 20/05/2006 22:20

ECMWF is forecasting a "bomb" to develop north of Northland next WE.
No good to us stuck here in Canterbury under anticyclone weather ?

Mind you we don't need that much rain at the moment.
JohnGaul
NZTS

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Sat 20/05/2006 22:23

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:ECMWF is forecasting a "bomb" to develop north of Northland next WE.
No good to us stuck here in Canterbury under anticyclone weather ?
Mind you we don't need that much rain at the moment.
JohnGaul
NZTS

I bet the winner of 17 million from up that way won't be worried about the weather.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 20/05/2006 22:28

Flutterbye wrote:
I bet the winner of 17 million from up that way won't be worried about the weather.

Is it Auckland again?
They get all the thunderstorms and the majority of major Lotto prizes

JohnGaul
NZTS

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Sat 20/05/2006 22:30

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Flutterbye wrote:
I bet the winner of 17 million from up that way won't be worried about the weather.

Is it Auckland again?
They get all the thunderstorms and the majority of major Lotto prizes

JohnGaul
NZTS

A small town called Kaeo somewhere in Northland - population 483 apparently. Won't everyone be watching like hawks in that town.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 20/05/2006 22:38

By GASP told us for 2nd low pressure may form off Fraser Island and doing to repeation to our coastal areas, that low pressure would be morely severe and particurly dangerous.

I doubt it? Which models are you looking at ??
Looks bloody anticyclonic to me???

JohnGaul
NZTS

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sat 20/05/2006 23:33

Jasestrm wrote:...you are better going with water spilt on an open live wire now thats dangerous . Cheers
Jason.

I was recently someplace which shall remain nameless, helping to install some new 220 and 400KV cables. The area I drew the short straw to work in for much of the time was at the bottom of a 250m shaft, and under about 6" of water, with more cascading down constantly from above. The lighting came from some of those cheapie Warehouse-type flood lights, powered via standard domestic extension cords and powerstrips. These were wet all the time. And not just damp either, but absolutely soaked. It blew away forever all the tales of death and doom I'd heard as a kid about electricity and water not being able to mix! To think of all the effort I wasted when I was a kid rushing appliances indoors everytime there was even a hint of rain!

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 20/05/2006 23:55

Hey John they might get storms and lotto but who is the number one class team in rugby the crusaders now in the final again

good class of rugby players may i add.

Just watching a pragramme on discovery channel called eye of the storm had Jim edds in it from CHCH

born and bred

just looking at hurricanes over the years and how much they are increasing in numbers and intensity.
Id say with hurricane season creeping closer it should be an interesting one to watch this year but not so great on the pocket of petrol prices

.
Cheers
Jason.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 20/05/2006 23:56

Setting up some electric fences on our new property, today.
Had trouble wacking earthing waratah type of spikes into the ground.
Poured water down the hole to ease the driving down of the earth spikes.
We wired everything up and turned it on.
Everything thing semed to be OK

JohnGaul
NZTS

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sun 21/05/2006 01:31

we in perth are expecting our 1st major rain even form monday nite till thursday morning finally with a decent inflow if tropical moisture interacting with our next up coming front witch a low is expected to form on it aswell as east ozzie having its low and then the NI bomb depression

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 21/05/2006 12:16

squid wrote:we in perth are expecting our 1st major rain even form monday nite till thursday morning finally with a decent inflow if tropical moisture interacting with our next up coming front witch a low is expected to form on it aswell as east ozzie having its low and then the NI bomb depression

that's nice

- read like a robot from Star Trek -

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sun 21/05/2006 12:30

For anyone who doesnt know, the comma key is on the bottom row of the keyboard, next to the full stop, which is also useful at times.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Sun 21/05/2006 13:49

Hear hear! And when did these Macbeth elements creep into weather discussions?

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Sun 21/05/2006 13:55

Powerful and air clear updrafts here in NTH Lismore atm, feeling a bit warm and humid! 80% clouded, very dark tastey RFB clouds looming over us, it was perfectly clear this morning!

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Sun 21/05/2006 15:29

Very huge powerful updrafts looming everywhere here with awesome temps and wind breezes! There must be massive CAPE here today and LIFTEDINDEX too. It about 25C here atm with 86% humidity! Variable winds but some were gusting SE'ly at times. Likely to be the start of the low pressure formation by this: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/currentwe ... 0&img=anim

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sun 21/05/2006 16:17

RWood wrote:Hear hear! And when did these Macbeth elements creep into weather discussions?

Fair is foul, and foul is fair, but what's done is done...so when shall we three meet again in thunder, lightning, or in rain?

Shepherds Valley WX · Sun 21/05/2006 17:41

LOL,

....

I don't post often on this forum, but I am soooo glad someone finally pointed out to these guys where the appropriate keys are!!!

Matt and Squid... even for me, (a very casual observer) your posts are becoming a little tiresome....perhaps a change in posting "style" is required.... ie: quality...not quantity?

My two cents anyway...

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Sun 21/05/2006 20:41

http://data.theweather.com.au/access/im ... s_anim.gif

Looking mor organised for now in central QLD, might be the first low to kick off