Prolonged wet spell looming

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Wed 24/05/2006 19:46

Foggy Hamilton wrote:1027mb and on the increase here and Auckland.. 1028mb in the Bay of Plenty

That's high.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Wed 24/05/2006 20:14

hmm maby this system may be a fizzer with such high pressure around.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 24/05/2006 20:35

I was out and about when the heavy rain started falling from about 3:30pm.
I noticed that it was slight Ene after being a very a light Wsw to Sw.
Steady drizzly showers falling all day until about 1:30pm.
Remaining dull and overcast like what it has been so far this week here in Christchurch.
Good convergence activity despite the high barometer pressure, I was 1024hPa around 3pm.
Very heavy rain around the Sockburn Roundabout and to the Springs Rd/Halswell junction Road roundabout.
I recorded 3mm to 2pm here from 7:30am this morning and another 6.5mm falling to 5pm before it started to clear.
It is now fine and clear with the barometer rising although a bit misty.
As R wood said, I like these high pressure bad weather situations

or something like that.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 24/05/2006 20:43

Weve probably had more rain in the last week than Perths had all year

squid wrote:hmm maby this system may be a fizzer with such high pressure around.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Wed 24/05/2006 22:31

We had a very pleasant day after early fog with light winds and stunning harbour scenes.

A month that featured high pressures and a lot of rain was April 1974 (Wgton had mean MSLP of 1019.4, about 3HPA above average, for example - and its wettest ever April with 328 mm!

). Vast tracts of the country were very wet, especially eastern areas. Persistent blocking highs to the east of NZ, where pressures were exceptionally high, allowed a lot of moist NE infeed on the western flanks.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Wed 24/05/2006 23:17

RWood wrote:We had a very pleasant day after early fog with light winds and stunning harbour scenes.

A month that featured high pressures and a lot of rain was April 1974 (Wgton had mean MSLP of 1019.4, about 3HPA above average, for example - and its wettest ever April with 328 mm! ). Vast tracts of the country were very wet, especially eastern areas. Persistent blocking highs to the east of NZ, where pressures were exceptionally high, allowed a lot of moist NE infeed on the western flanks.

So do you think we're in for a moist or dry winter? I know it's all-but impossible to actually predict, but what's your opinion. I don't know if you're aware that Dobson skifield is opening this weekend, the earliest in 25 years, because they have so much snow...are they jumping the gun would you say, or is it a sign of things to come?

Wildland · Unread post by **Wildland** » Thu 25/05/2006 00:53

RWood wrote:We had a very pleasant day after early fog with light winds and stunning harbour scenes.

Zoomed into town yesterday afternoon and was stunned at the clarity of the harbour views! After the foggy start, I wasn't expecting such crisp "seeing." Clear views of the mountains looming over the coastal communities stretching around the harbour's edge past Eastbourne - remarkable.

I had expected haze at the very least.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Thu 25/05/2006 07:22

Gary Roberts wrote:
RWood wrote:We had a very pleasant day after early fog with light winds and stunning harbour scenes.

A month that featured high pressures and a lot of rain was April 1974 (Wgton had mean MSLP of 1019.4, about 3HPA above average, for example - and its wettest ever April with 328 mm! ). Vast tracts of the country were very wet, especially eastern areas. Persistent blocking highs to the east of NZ, where pressures were exceptionally high, allowed a lot of moist NE infeed on the western flanks.
So do you think we're in for a moist or dry winter? I know it's all-but impossible to actually predict, but what's your opinion. I don't know if you're aware that Dobson skifield is opening this weekend, the earliest in 25 years, because they have so much snow...are they jumping the gun would you say, or is it a sign of things to come?

I think that's a very tricky one at present, as it's hard to discern any coherent pattern. As Tony was saying (in effect) in a post about Canterbury coastal rainfall, there is only a modest change in pressure patterns to make the difference between a lot of east coast moistness - or real wetness - and one where they may be fogs and plenty of low cloud but lowish rainfalls. The general expectation seems to be for a continuation of diminished westerlies, but not much else seems clear. In a couple of weeks when we're a little into June it might clarify. I'm very wary about early skifield openings and trying to conclude much from them. Sorry to be so vague - I can often detect similarities to past months or seasons but this one isn't screaming anything out yet.

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Thu 25/05/2006 09:34

Wow look at how far north those Isobars are going to stretch. All the way to Samoa!!! It's going to be rather humid and very warm for this time of year. Lets just hope we get some proper upper level cooling.

20C for Auckland today!!!???

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Thu 25/05/2006 09:40

oh..then again, it might be quite a strong northerly/north easterly so convection may be minimal on land.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Thu 25/05/2006 10:14

Wildland wrote:
RWood wrote:We had a very pleasant day after early fog with light winds and stunning harbour scenes.
Zoomed into town yesterday afternoon and was stunned at the clarity of the harbour views! After the foggy start, I wasn't expecting such crisp "seeing." Clear views of the mountains looming over the coastal communities stretching around the harbour's edge past Eastbourne - remarkable.

I had expected haze at the very least.

Though you guys down there don't get the radiative fog like we do, but the advective and orographic in the valley.. so it should clear quickly upon wind change, I think?

Heavy shower this morning, baro reading 1030mb!

No convection around today Cameo, the dewpoints are very ripe around 17c, air aloft is very warm thanks to a northwest jetstream.. and those air pressures are useless. That blocking high is doing a very good job of diverting that rain and showers from the areas of convection up north down onto us.

Although low, a return to high temperatures (21c) lower air pressures and some cooling aloft.. could be some thunder about this Saturday.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 25/05/2006 10:18

Usually that pattern only gives the above temps in the SW of the NI

Cameo1 wrote:Wow look at how far north those Isobars are going to stretch. All the way to Samoa!!! It's going to be rather humid and very warm for this time of year. Lets just hope we get some proper upper level cooling.
20C for Auckland today!!!???

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Thu 25/05/2006 10:21

Lovely morning so far with serene harbour again

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 25/05/2006 10:30

Warm about 18c though but humid and overcast

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Fri 26/05/2006 06:24

Although low, a return to high temperatures (21c) lower air pressures and some cooling aloft.. could be some thunder about this Saturday.[/quote]

Thats what I meant Foggy

Is it raining down there at the moment?

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 26/05/2006 09:25

The hatches are battened down. Theres going to be some action today...stand by.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 26/05/2006 10:40

Its almost like clockwork the last week of May at least the leaves may finally get blown down

Razor wrote:The hatches are battened down. Theres going to be some action today...stand by.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 26/05/2006 12:24

Nice exploding convection bearing down onto the Aupouri Peninsular this afternoon.. should see a few thundery falls there, though nothing forecast?
Cape Reinga has been averaging 80km/h+ winds all night.. and 93km/h at 9am.. will be interesting to see if that wind has eased and shifted southeast.
Looks like a lot of rain could fall tonight.. all will that just bear down onto Westland?

Station forecast has finally picked up on this system! lol

edit, 96km/h on the 12pm report at Cape Reinga with heavy rain. So no weakening there.
How would you like that Michael?

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 26/05/2006 16:33

As long as it falls in those lakes instead of us in the dark having cold showers stuck indoors every day

Foggy Hamilton wrote:Looks like a lot of rain could fall tonight.. all will that just bear down onto Westland?

Station forecast has finally picked up on this system! lol

edit, 96km/h on the 12pm report at Cape Reinga with heavy rain. So no weakening there.
How would you like that Michael?

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Fri 26/05/2006 17:15

hey whats with the 3pm Auk weather radar image. Its like someone has traced around a coin and painted around it?

lol

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Fri 26/05/2006 17:17

here it is...

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 26/05/2006 17:25

Were in the cyclone eye

Cameo1 wrote:hey whats with the 3pm Auk weather radar image. Its like someone has traced around a coin and painted around it? lol

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 26/05/2006 18:00

Maybe a gigantic umbrella has been placed over Auckland

(no doubt Auckland posters will soon disagree)

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Fri 26/05/2006 18:18

lol yea

probably some boring technical explanation....

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 26/05/2006 20:12

Its a mesoscale anti-convective feature