Colder Event for Next WE - 10/11June 2006

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 04/06/2006 22:27

...at the moment
Looks like there could be a colder event for next WE in comparison of that experienced this WE if that area of high pressure in the Australian Bight develops to 1040hPa as some models suggest

JohnGaul
NZTS

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sun 04/06/2006 22:29

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:...at the moment
Looks like there could be a colder event for next WE in comparison of that experienced this WE if that area of high pressure in the Australian Bight develops to 1040hPa as some models suggest

JohnGaul
NZTS

Models! Pffft! What do they know anyway? They're all bulimic!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 04/06/2006 22:35

Gary Roberts wrote:
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:...at the moment
Looks like there could be a colder event for next WE in comparison of that experienced this WE if that area of high pressure in the Australian Bight develops to 1040hPa as some models suggest

JohnGaul
NZTS
Models! Pffft! What do they know anyway? They're all bulimic!

not really, some are really good
I used to like Elle Macpherson, to some called "The Body" but then you have our Racheal Hunter who was a model married to Rod Stewart.
The model Nioni Campbell caused a sensation in the weather world once when she predicted thunderstorms in Africa.
We do have our own TV weather model called Toni Marsh !!!!

...nuff said

JohnGaul
NZTS

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sun 04/06/2006 22:39

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:We do have our own TV weather model called Toni Marsh !!!!

...nuff said

JohnGaul
NZTS

TouchÃ©! Oh so touchÃ©!

Mmmmm...Toni...!

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Sun 04/06/2006 22:40

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Gary Roberts wrote: Models! Pffft! What do they know anyway? They're all bulimic!

not really, some are really good
I used to like Elle Macpherson, to some called "The Body" but then you have our Racheal Hunter who was a model married to Rod Stewart.
The model Nioni Campbell caused a sensation in the weather world once when she predicted thunderstorms in Africa.
We do have our own TV weather model called Toni Marsh !!!!

...nuff said

JohnGaul
NZTS

I don't know how it could get much colder than it is - though it's dry here.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sun 04/06/2006 22:41

Flutterbye wrote:I don't know how it could get much colder than it is - though it's dry here.

What's the temp there?

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Sun 04/06/2006 22:44

Gary Roberts wrote:
Flutterbye wrote:I don't know how it could get much colder than it is - though it's dry here.
What's the temp there?

2.1 - wind chill temp -1.7

24 inside though

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 04/06/2006 22:46

....seriously, I think this southerly/Sw will persist throughout, this week sending up the occasional cold front but the one at the WE looks the best with a possible 1040hPa anticyclone in the Australian Bight dropping it's ridges to quite a low latitiude which should enhance a rather cold flow in from the south this WE.
Hows that for a long sentence

JohnGaul
NZTS

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 05/06/2006 14:20

lol you guys crack me up sometimes

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Mon 05/06/2006 14:25

Cool, but "weekdays" of sunshine for us in the SW regime now setting in.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 05/06/2006 16:52

Looks like it should hit us late Friday with rain developing not sure about the snow levels as of yet but those S-SW winds will be bitter.

Cheers
Jason.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Tue 06/06/2006 20:38

looks like another deep tasman low for you
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/tw ... lp&hour=-1

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Wed 07/06/2006 19:08

Looking quite interesting ahead this low is looking deep and very windy for some especially North Island come sunday,monday.
Looks like after the low it's going to be a week of strong W-SW winds and changeable weather.
If the low holds together like it's shaping up to be you might want to re think on sailing in the North Island

.
I wonder if we will get another go at snow

.
Cheers
Jason.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Wed 07/06/2006 19:10

Jasestrm wrote:I wonder if we will get another go at snow .
Cheers
Jason.

Breath. Not. My. Holding.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 07/06/2006 19:51

Westport/Nelson, Taranaki, Marlbough and Wellington should be in for heavy rain over the weekend. Westport and Nelson ranges esp 200mm+

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Wed 07/06/2006 23:25

looks like a nasty system for monday esp for the NI with models predicting a central pressure of around the 985 mark.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 08/06/2006 14:13

At least we might get a NW flow for a day before it packs up completely, hopefully in daylight hours to clear the SW clag

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Thu 08/06/2006 14:20

Looks like the strongest N/NW flow we have been through this year.. if it pans out.

Storm risk for the upper north is low at this stage.

Would be good to have the strong southwesterlies back.. been a while since we've had them.

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Thu 08/06/2006 15:09

Looking more and more likely for us to be getting a decent cold blast out of late MON/early TUES...850 Hpa temps shaping up to be mighty chilly (-4 to -8 down south!)

...and with what looks likely to be moisture-laden air to boot!

The cold air will *SQUEEZE* out that moisture, for sure...in the form of snow?...probably, we'll see how low she goes... Hail/sleet? For sure...

( I just hope we don't get any freezing rain...ice everywhere!!)

Out of curiousity...when was the last time something like that has happened in NZ? I've been here over 6 years now and can't remember an icing event.......

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Thu 08/06/2006 15:14

Some interesting weather happening out there at the moment. Just had a very brief burst of heavy rain, and the blackest clouds are around out there at the moment.

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Thu 08/06/2006 16:01

Cameo1 wrote:Some interesting weather happening out there at the moment. Just had a very brief burst of heavy rain, and the blackest clouds are around out there at the moment.

yeah although it wont amount to much. There is an inversion at 1500m according to whenuapai soundings, with a 2nd much weaker inversion at about 5000m

I think this is what NZstorm would refer to as a "capped environment"??

and there were some really cool cloud bases out west too with stringy stuff hanging off the bottom. I am assuming its convergence of some kind?

keep and eye on the thunderstorms developing off Sydney right now. This should spin up to form a good complex low about mondee/tuesdee next week. You should start to see high cloud spewing out of this on the weekend.

You can see that the moisture feed has developed really well just in the last 24 hours. This will presumably fuel the system as it traverses the tazzie, but as foggy has suggested it shouldn't result in 'storms' as such for us, more likely yukky rainy stuff !!

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 08/06/2006 16:15

Looking more and more likely for us to be getting a decent cold blast out of late MON/early TUES...850 Hpa temps shaping up to be mighty chilly (-4 to -8 down south!)

Blue Skies is now predicting such an outbreak, but MetService isn't.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 08/06/2006 16:40

clearing up now that the sun is just above the horizon to strengthen the Greenland continental effect to cool it down furthur overnight

Manukau heads obs · Thu 08/06/2006 17:04

could be a good storm system for us here this coming week

looking forward to it (about time we got some strong winds)

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Thu 08/06/2006 17:16

tich wrote:
Looking more and more likely for us to be getting a decent cold blast out of late MON/early TUES...850 Hpa temps shaping up to be mighty chilly (-4 to -8 down south!)
Blue Skies is now predicting such an outbreak, but MetService isn't.

My faith is more with Blue Skies (always has been, I might add

)

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Colder Event for Next WE - 10/11June 2006

Colder Event for Next WE - 10/11June 2006

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Re: Colder Event for Next WE - 10/11June 2006

Re: Colder Event for Next WE - 10/11June 2006