Colder Event for Next WE - 10/11June 2006

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sun 11/06/2006 20:49

Fujita Phil wrote:Friday/Saturday at the end of this week look like they could be a tad cool

Call me Mister Cynical, but I've been hearing that "next weekend is gonna be cold!" for a while now...

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Sun 11/06/2006 20:50

Fujita Phil wrote:Friday/Saturday at the end of this week look like they could be a tad cool

Yeah, I wasn't gonna mention that, but yeah, lookin' that way...still a wee way out, but even up on the ATS 12-dayer and hasn't changed much...an interesting week, for sure.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sun 11/06/2006 21:12

gllitz wrote:I remember TonyT mentioning way back when the 850 hpa air temp is around -3/4 or so and 500MB thickness is below 530, snow tends to make it to the ground (at least, here in CHCH, anyway)

Nope, the numbers you are thinking of are approx -5.5/-6 and 526. The numbers you have quoted would bring snow to 500m, perhaps.

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Sun 11/06/2006 21:14

TonyT wrote:
gllitz wrote:I remember TonyT mentioning way back when the 850 hpa air temp is around -3/4 or so and 500MB thickness is below 530, snow tends to make it to the ground (at least, here in CHCH, anyway)
Nope, the numbers you are thinking of are approx -5.5/-6 and 526. The numbers you have quoted would bring snow to 500m, perhaps.

Excellent...will remember that! Many thanks!

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sun 11/06/2006 21:36

Short period of strong winds before roaring in the trees and making the lights flicker

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Wouldn't believe it though calm and humid outside now definatly the calm before the storm or bad weather

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Anyone up for hanggliding in wellington tomorrow could end up somewhere in the pacific

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Cheers
Jason.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 11/06/2006 21:50

Fujita Phil wrote:Friday/Saturday at the end of this week look like they could be a tad cool

I was going to start up a new thread on that one, but I don't think I'll bother.

Wait until Friday to see what happens.

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 11/06/2006 21:52

Jasestrm wrote:Short period of strong winds before roaring in the trees and making the lights flicker .

Cheers
Jason.

Nothing much here, Jase,just a light southerly blowing and 12C

JohnGaul
NZTS

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Sun 11/06/2006 22:01

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Fujita Phil wrote:Friday/Saturday at the end of this week look like they could be a tad cool
Gary Roberts wrote:Call me Mister Cynical, but I've been hearing that "next weekend is gonna be cold!" for a while now...

Wait until Friday to see what happens.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Nah... 6 days out? Couldn't be more accurate

Manukau heads obs · Sun 11/06/2006 22:21

from the met service weather warning page:
Snow is expected to low levels in Canterbury, especially in the south,and some
heavy falls are now expected down to 300 metres south of Banks Peninsula

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sun 11/06/2006 22:30

I cant see that happening the time frame they are suggesting (overnight tonight), looks more likely to happen on Monday night when the really cold air arrives over the region.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 11/06/2006 22:30

Manukau heads observer wrote:from the met service weather warning page:
Snow is expected to low levels in Canterbury, especially in the south,and some
heavy falls are now expected down to 300 metres south of Banks Peninsula

Yes, I noticed that Brian.
Still a mild 12C here with a bit of a wind between Wsw and S.Noticed that it is much colder down south , Timaru and Oamaru where it is now raining.
This rain shouldn't be too far away from us at the moment.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Manukau heads obs · Sun 11/06/2006 22:34

dont forget that a rapidly deepening depression , the temperature in the center of the depression drops ALOT (because of the big pressure drop)

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sun 11/06/2006 22:37

Thats some very heavy rain in south/mid canterbury, should hit us within the hour. My parents are coming up from invercargill tomoro, should be an interesting drive

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Sun 11/06/2006 22:48

03Stormchaser wrote:Thats some very heavy rain in south/mid canterbury, should hit us within the hour. My parents are coming up from invercargill tomoro, should be an interesting drive

Nothing much happening down here - a slight N breeze, weak moonlight and 1.5 degrees.

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Mon 12/06/2006 00:32

That midnight radar looks great for Canterbury,heavy preciptation over South/Mid Canty and only 3 degrees in Timaru.Should be some heavy snowfalls in inland Canterbury by daybreak.
Im a bit far away to do a snowchase this time.

Stuck in the boring tropics.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 12/06/2006 07:49

TonyT wrote:I cant see that happening the time frame they are suggesting (overnight tonight), looks more likely to happen on Monday night when the really cold air arrives over the region.

I should have kept my big mouth shut!

Latest modelling suggests the thicknesses are quite a bit lower than were predicted yesterday afternoon. Looks like Metservice were on to it with modelling after the 6pm data. Hats off to them. How much colder will it get tonight?

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 12/06/2006 07:57

TonyT wrote:
TonyT wrote:I cant see that happening the time frame they are suggesting (overnight tonight), looks more likely to happen on Monday night when the really cold air arrives over the region.

I should have kept my big mouth shut!

Latest modelling suggests the thicknesses are quite a bit lower than were predicted yesterday afternoon. Looks like Metservice were on to it with modelling after the 6pm data. Hats off to them. How much colder will it get tonight?

So you think this could last for a while??

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 12/06/2006 08:00

It probably clear to very cold lighter WSW later for you and clear with frosts as the low moves east

03Stormchaser wrote:
So you think this could last for a while??

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Mon 12/06/2006 08:05

03Stormchaser wrote:
TonyT wrote:

I should have kept my big mouth shut!

Latest modelling suggests the thicknesses are quite a bit lower than were predicted yesterday afternoon. Looks like Metservice were on to it with modelling after the 6pm data. Hats off to them. How much colder will it get tonight?
So you think this could last for a while??

I reckon you're in for a BIG snow today

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 12/06/2006 08:08

Not much fallen yet in ChCh, ground very wet from heavy rain over night. Parents decided not to come up today, I wonder why!

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 12/06/2006 08:26

Latest modelling suggests the thicknesses are quite a bit lower than were predicted yesterday afternoon

And with warm advective snow events, the thickness is not a great tool for forecasting snow levels. Invercargill observed thickness last night was 5359.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 12/06/2006 08:28

NZstorm wrote:
Latest modelling suggests the thicknesses are quite a bit lower than were predicted yesterday afternoon
And with warm advective snow events, the thickness is not a great tool for forecasting snow levels. Invercargill observed thickness last night was 5359.

Correct Steven, but the modelled 850Ts werent cold enough for snow to sea level either (not at this time anyway).

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 12/06/2006 08:29

03Stormchaser wrote: So you think this could last for a while??

Should be a clearance (well, an easing shall we say) this afternoon, but another burst of wintry showers later tonight.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 12/06/2006 08:35

All Schools in Kaiapoi shut! Seems to have eased here alittle

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Mon 12/06/2006 11:00

Snow has stopped falling and we have around 30 cm on the open flats, much more in drifts. Very very picturesque!